Lead Stories

Support for the island's two major political parties has dwindled down to the bare bones, with mainly hard-core supporters expressing any interest in voting if an election is called now.

But that has left the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in pole position, where it could possibly capture almost 40 seats to the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) 20 if a general election were called.

However, a large constituency of persons who say they are undecided or would not vote could change that outcome considerably if the election fever hits them when the campaign begins.

A Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll conducted in late April and early May found that 38 per cent of the voters would mark their ballots for the PNP, while 19 per cent said they would vote for the JLP.

hard-core supporters

That represents the basic hard-core supporters of the two major political parties, with most of those who said they would vote for either listing family tradition and party loyalty among the main reasons.

Johnson and his team found that 32 per cent of Jamaicans would not vote, while another 10 per cent said they were undecided.

"The PNP's core support is about 30 per cent, so that party is doing a littler better than I would expect at this time, while the JLP is slightly below its core support," political analyst Tony Myers told The Sunday Gleaner.

"But the fact that the JLP is below its core support reflects what has happened in the past five to seven months," Myers added.

"I am not surprised by the PNP numbers or the uncommitted, but the JLP number is surprisingly low," said Myers.

The latest poll numbers reflect a massive fallout for the JLP, which has seen the number of persons prepared to vote Labour declining by a frightening 12 per cent.

"That should not really frighten the JLP. The party will know that when the 'Dudus' dust settles and if the positive developments in the economy continue, it will begin to win back many of its supporters and its fortunes will improve," argued a lecturer in government and politics who asked not to be named.

The lecturer, who requested anonymity because of a

project she is working on, added that the decline in the JLP numbers was no reason for the PNP to start popping the champagne as it has not really benefited from the move away from the governing party.

In June 2008, 36 per cent of Jamaicans surveyed told Johnson and his team that they would vote PNP. This inched up to 37 per cent in August 2009, with a statically insignificant increase this year.

The failure of the PNP to attract persons dissatisfied with the governing JLP has piqued the interest of political analysts Richard 'Dickie' Crawford and Dr Hume Johnson.

not demanding pnp

Crawford told The Sunday Gleaner that the astounding significance of the poll is that Jamaicans are not demanding the replacement of the JLP government with a PNP one, which is readily available.

"It seems to the electorate that the current political system has so badly failed the country that sheer replacement would be of little or no value, and that the PNP has not convinced us that they are determined to change the old politics," Crawford said.

"Extraordinarily, the PNP has not benefited from the loss of faith in the JLP," asserted Johnson.

She noted that while the favourable opinion of the PNP had remained consistent since August 2009, the massive shift in support away from the JLP landed in the category of the uncommitted.

"This should be of great concern to both parties, as it speaks to the high levels of disaffection, apathy and distrust being experienced by the Jamaican people," said Johnson.

"The figures illustrate that the Jamaican people remain overwhelmingly disappointed with the Opposition, and have clearly lost enormous favour with the JLP," Johnson asserted.

According to Johnson: "Both parties will have to work hard at rebuilding their credibility, integrity and trust if they wish to sustain stores of favourable opinion."

That is a position shared by Crawford, who argued that one of the issues which influences voters now is the fact that both political parties are known to have been associated with garrison politics, criminals, and to have links with criminal elements.

"Since this has now been accepted or identified as the most dangerous political practice in Jamaica, responsible for the present crisis, people would want to know if the PNP has cleansed itself of this malady, as well as the negatives of corruption," Crawford said.