American politics' Golden Rule: Be happy

by John Rapley

Recently, the comedian Jon Stewart produced a clever tele-montage of samples from disaster flicks to accompany a speech by a United States Republican leader. It's not difficult, in this primary season, to find Republican speeches bemoaning the sorry state of America after four years of Obamanomics.

But as Republican consultants are telling their own party, those speakers may be making a big mistake. Foreign commentators often marvel at the native optimism of Americans. Even when gloom seems very much in order, polls consistently reveal that Americans persist in their confidence that better days are ahead.

A Republican icon, Ronald Reagan, proved that. In 1980, things were dire in America. The economy was slumping, manufacturing was declining, the military was fumbling, and the president, Jimmy Carter, gave a famous speech in which he told his countrymen their country was in crisis. Then along came the Hollywood charmer, who smiled and said, 'Follow me.' The rest is history, contested though it may be.

Republicans have forgotten that, at least for now. In a primary season in which the Establishment wanted to crown Mitt Romney, insurgents have put Mr Romney on the defensive by channelling the discontent in their ranks. After years of Tea-Partying, there's a lot of grumbling to go about.

Republicans not falling in line

Mr Romney has beaten back one foe after another. After slowing the Gingrich juggernaut, at least until next month's Super Tuesday primaries, Mr Romney has had to turn to a new rival: Rick Santorum.

It used to be said that Democratic voters fell in love, Republicans fell in line. But the base just isn't feeling the love for Mr Romney, and they aren't falling in line: his hair is too perfect, his family too flawless, and his religion, well, a little too creepy to them.

Mr Romney is still odds-on favourite to get the nomination. However, whereas it once appeared he would sail through the primaries, the likelihood is rising that he will have to fight to the bitter end. He may even need to take the battle to the convention floor. Along the way, he will deplete the funds he had built up for the campaign against President Obama (who has the luxury of being unchallenged for the Democratic nomination).

But worst of all, to fend off his challengers, with their prophecies of doom, he has had to fall back into some of the same negative politics. Democrats are lapping it up. It is not just that Republicans are doing their dirty work. It is that they are producing hours of video that can be used to fill Democratic adverts.

Economy looking up

Recent economic reports suggest that, at least for now, the US economy is looking up. Admittedly, it is looking up from the pretty deep trench into which it has fallen. But once they see blue sky, Americans like to focus on getting back up, rather than how they fell down.

Newt Gingrich has likened his insurgency to that of Ronald Reagan in 1976. This is both odd and, possibly, ominous. Odd, because Reagan went on to lose the nomination that year; ominous, because so, too, did the eventual Republican nominee, Gerald Ford. Gingrich, like Santorum, has been firing up the Republican base with angry shouts of America's fallen state. Assuming Romney gets the nomination, there is a danger some of that support stays home, dejected and angry, next November.

Meanwhile, with his promises to try to narrow the widening chasm between rich and poor, President Obama has been shoring up his base. Mr Romney's patrician nature - recently, he carelessly let slip that he wasn't concerned about the "very poor" because they have a safety net - will feed that. Being force to tilt far right to beat off the insurgencies will further reinforce the determination of Democrats to turn out next November.

Emiliano Zapato famously declared that it was better to die on one's feet than to live on one's knees. It seems a 'dignified death' is what Tea Partiers wish for the Republican Party's presidential hopes.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.