EDITORIAL - Romney's dilemma

He's worth an estimated US$255 million. He is a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or Mormons, which the American public generally views as a bit odd. His wife drives "a couple of Cadillacs". And he might not be paying as much tax, by ratio, as the woman calculating his grocery bill at the cash register.

These are the marks of elitism that have earned contempt, at worst, and distrust, at best, for Willard Mitt Romney, the inevitable Republican nominee, who will be making his second bid for the White House after his first escapade was scuppered in the Republican primaries of 2008.

But Mitt Romney has bigger problems.

Even though he has shaken off the nagging hangers-on Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum from his bumper, United States President Barack Obama will be a more formidable opponent.

Aside from his image, Mr Romney's greatest bugbear is his message.

Even though opinion polls have him neck and neck, Mr Romney is seemingly following the same failed Republican playbook that cost John McCain residency at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

His campaign revolves around pontificating, reflexively, on the flashpoints of lowering taxes for the rich, and outlawing gay marriage and abortion, Right-leaning Republican virtues which may endear the Tea Party and energise the base but alienate voters who are not the mindless minions of the Democrats or the GOP.

The message is discordant, and his audience skewed. Mr Romney leads Mr Obama in some of the same groups that Mr McCain did: white men and evangelicals. But that alone won't win him the presidency.

The Republicans have ostracised too many African Americans, Latinos, gays and women, demographic groups which could make the difference in a photo finish at the line.

The most recent Reuters/Ipsos opinion survey among likely voters showed Mr Romney two points ahead of Mr Obama. Fortunes can change swiftly. At the top of the week, it was Mr Obama who was ahead by four points, leading 46 per cent to Mr Romney's 42. Gallup, among America's most revered polling organisations, gives Mr Obama a one-point advantage, 47 to 46.

EXPECT A BOUNCE, BUT WILL IT LAST?

Mr Romney should expect a bounce after his speech last night in Florida, as he laid out an emotive personal narrative and a vision for a resurgent America. But as bounces go, what goes up will come down.

On the veranda-chair issue of likeability, President Obama beats Mr Romney street and lane - by almost 20 percentage points in one poll. But Americans do not need a president they can snuggle up beside and watch reruns on Nickelodeon. Leadership trumps likeability. And America's No. 1 priority must be rescuing itself from the economic doldrums into which it was pulled by the war drums and fiduciary profligacy of George W. Bush.

The economic climate is still grim. Unemployment hovers at 8.3 per cent. And Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security continue to be a drag on the Treasury.

Mitt Romney's only hope is to convince most Americans that he is the economic messiah that his chief cheerleader and wife thinks he is. Said Ann Romney at the Republican convention earlier this week: "This man will not fail. This man will not let us down. This man will lift up America!"

Will the majority of US voters believe that?

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