Mitt Romney's last-chance saloon

By John Rapley

How on earth can people call Mitt Romney selfish? The Republican nominee in the United States presidential election is so generous, he's been out campaigning for his opponent. Talk about loving your enemy.

In public, Mitt Romney tries to look like Ned Flanders, but in private, he comes off more like Montgomery Burns. The Republican Party's steakhouse-dwelling, gun-toting base, eager for some 'religion', are dismayed at the lurches to the centre the Romney campaign has made. But whenever Mr Romney tries to reassure his base of his conservative credentials, as in the notorious '47 per cent' video, moderates frown.

He got too little of a bounce from his convention, he trails President Obama in the polls, he is not raising as much cash as is his opponent, and he is losing swing-state support. Critically, he allowed the Obama campaign to define him as a selfish, elitist, country-club Republican. His efforts to present himself as a hard-working, kind and generous family man have failed to counter the Obama campaign's effective attack ads.

Worse, for a man who planned to run on his competence as an economic manager, his inept campaign is currently losing him that debate. Besides, his peculiar insistence on criticising Obamacare has drawn his listeners' attention away from the economy to an issue which isn't presently winning him many votes. Add his repeated gaffes, and his campaign keeps getting drawn off message.

Recovering economy

In any event, even though the state of the economy still has most Americans grumbling, recent signs point to a lessening in the mood of despondence. More important, in key swing states, the economy is currently doing better than the average, further boosting the president's prospects.

On Wednesday, the first of three televised debates takes place. Many analysts regard this as Mitt Romney's last chance to turn the tide of the campaign. He needs to perform well, so as to reset his image and put some wind in his sails. Actually, he has to do more than well: American history provides examples of candidates who were perceived to have won debates, yet still lost elections.

Nonetheless, the good news for Romney is that the race remains close. Despite a widening poll gap that has some liberal commentators salivating at the prospect of a Democratic Congress, President Obama's lead remains narrow. And with more than a month to go before the election, there is still time enough for a big foreign-policy shock or some more bad economic news - this week's employment figures will be especially, and anxiously, awaited by both campaigns.

DON'T POP THE CHAMPAGNE

Nobody in the Obama campaign is crowing about their lead. They know how narrow their margins are, and how quickly a major event, like an Israeli attack on Iran, could turn the tide. Plus, with such a close race, everything will come down to which party can turn out its voters on election day. That variable is particularly difficult to predict.

Four years ago, Barack Obama's message of hope and change turned out millions of voters, especially young people, who ordinarily paid less attention to politics than they did to their Facebook status. That thrill is gone. Check the view count of the Gotye YouTube parody, Obama That I Used to Know, and you'll get an idea of how disenchanted this group is. Meanwhile, liberal Democrats, frustrated that Obama talks a populist line but nonetheless stuffed his economics team with Wall Streeters, and a lot of Democrats may stay home on voting day.

As for Republicans, they were energised going into this campaign. But the confusion over what Romney stands for, and lingering doubts among Tea Partiers that he is really one of them, may also result in a lot them staying home and watching Speed Channel on election night.

Nonetheless, if he does well in the debates, President Obama should be in the driver's seat over the remaining weeks. Mitt Romney's team knows this, and will be going flat out preparing for this week's event.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.