WEEKLY CARICOM STOCK REPORT November 12-16, 2012

Published: Thursday | November 22, 2012 Comments 0

Caribbean stocks had another difficult week with all the major indices ending the week lower. For the week, 19,287,182 shares valued at $2,478,094 crossed the floors of the six stock exchanges across CARICOM, with 31 stocks advancing, 48 declining and 45 remaining unchanged.

JMMB was the volume leader with 8,440,228 shares being traded. Blue Power posted the largest gain for the week, 23.09 per cent, while on the losing end, Cargo Handlers fell 23.34 per cent.

For the week, 10 of the CSX 30 stocks advanced, 14 declined and six were unchanged.

The CSX 30 lost 11.51 points to close the week at 1,394.93, up 6.08 per cent year to date. In the CSX 30 there were gains for St. Lucia Electricity Services (4.00 per cent), Bank of Trade & Industry (3.88 per cent), Grace Kennedy (2.84 per cent), Scotia Group Jamaica (1.46 per cent), JMMB (1.20 per cent) and Agostinis (1.18 per cent). On the negative side, Neal & Massey fell 5.57 per cent, Mayberry 5.27 per cent, Lime Jamaica 4.92 per cent and Repubic Bank 3.14 per cent.

The junior market ended the week in negative territory with five stocks advancing and seven declining.

The CJSX lost 13.53 points to close the week at 1,518.19, down 16.44 per cent for the year. Blue Power gained 23.09 per cent, Lasco Financial 16.00 per cent, Honey Bun 7.59 per cent, Jamaica Teas 4.48 per cent and Access Financial 1.00 per cent. However, there were losses for Lasco Manufacturing (2.19 per cent) and Caribbean Producers (1.96 per cent).

Table 1: Broad Market Indices November 12 to November 16 2012


Index

Change

Year To
Date

Volatility

Return per
Unit of Risk

Caribbean AllShare Index CASX

1,716.61

-0.16%

-4.37%

2.48%

-1.76

Caribbean Select Index CSX 30

1,394.93

-0.82%

6.08%

0.28%

22.02

Caribbean Junior Share Index CJSX

1,518.19

-0.88%

-16.44%

79.49%

-0.21

S&P 500 Index (USA)

1,359.88

0.48%

8.13%

0.79%

10.25

FTSE 100 Index (UK)

5,605.60

-1.27%

0.60%

0.94%

0.63

Crude Oil

$86.67

-0.008%

Gold 100 OZ Futures

$1,731.10

0.003%

Table 2: Sector Indices November 12-16, 2012


Index

Change

Year to
Date

Volatility

Return per Unit of Risk

Caribbean Banking Index (CBSX)

1,313.2

-0.71%

4.67%

0.44%

10.65

Caribbean Conglomerate Index (CCSX)

1,280.9

-1.07%

7.22%

0.33%

21.60

Caribbean Communications and Utilities Index (CCUX)

1,129.2

0.22%

1.97%

0.22%

9.02

Caribbean Insurance and Investments Index (CIIX)

1,120.3

-0.19%

-4.37%

0.54%

-8.09

Caribbean Manufacturing Index (CMSX)

1,436.3

-0.15%

11.18%

0.36%

31.26

Caribbean Retail and Distribution Index (CRDX)

1,170.0

0.19%

-2.00%

0.82%

-2.44

Caribbean Tourism and Real Estate Index (CTRX)

1,515.4

-0.27%

-5.29%

0.05%

-110.61

Stocks On The Move

Tables three and four provide some widely used financial metrics on the biggest movers for the week. Readers should note that prices are in US dollars.

Table 3: Advancing Stocks: November 12-16, 2012


EXCH

Index

Close

30 Day Moving Average

Volume
For Week

Return
For
Week

Year to
Date

Volatility

Blue Power

JSE

CJSX

$0.0602

$0.0564

204,600

23.09%

-14.4%

2.17%

Lasco Financial

JSE

CJSX

$0.0608

$0.0582

102,712

16.00%

-15.6%

2.99%

Hardware & Lumber

JSE

CRDX

$0.0383

$0.0367

48,989

15.99%

-43.8%

2.17%

Kingston Wharves

JSE

CMSX

$0.0602

$0.0557

10,987

9.70%

-12.0%

2.10%

Honey Bun

JSE

CJSX

$0.0372

$0.0359

31,756

7.59%

-41.4%

2.71%

Salada Foods

JSE

CJSX

$0.0930

$0.0876

800,000

7.32%

-9.24%

1.82%

Scotia Investments

JSE

CIIX

$0.3117

$0.2989

41,067

5.05%

-6.56%

2.89%

Jamaica Teas

JSE

CJSX

$0.0458

$0.0441

1,886,000

4.48%

-20.7%

2.62%

4.33%

-0.09

Table 4: Declining Stocks: November 12-16, 2012


Exch

Index

Close

30 Day Moving Average

Volume
For Week

Return
For week

Year to
Date

Volatility

Cargo Handler

JSE

CTRX

$0.1094

$0.1314

9,263

-23.34%

-27.42%

1.79%

Demerara Distullers

JSE

CRDX

$0.0627

$0.0642

8,000

-12.10%

18.12%

2.47%

Colina Holdings

BSE

CMSX

$2.2000

$2.3383

3,490

-6.75%

-10.06%

1.44%

Neal & Massey

JSE

CCUX

$7.0932

$7.3210

6,830

-5.57%

-0.82%

0.90%

Mayberry

JSE

CMSX

$0.0208

$0.0215

189,660

-5.27%

-44.80%

2.68%

CW Jamaica

JSE

CJSX

$0.0020

$0.0021

2,373,000

-4.92%

-14.61%

4.84%

Republic Bank

JSE

CJSX

$6.4560

$6.8485

4,444

-3.14%

9.78%

0.32%

Pan Caribbean Financial

TTSE

CMSX

$0.2237

$0.2259

16,300

-2.89%

-27.07%

2.81%

Investing School (Investing Principles)

4. Listen to Your Gut.

Any valuation model you may create for a company is only as good as the assumptions about the future that are put into it. If the output of a model does not make sense, then it's worthwhile to double-check your projections and calculations. Use DCF valuation models (or any other valuation models) as guides, not oracles.

5. Know Your Friends and Your Enemies.

What's the short interest in a stock you are interested in? What mutual funds own the company, and what is the record of those fund managers? Does company management have "skin in the game" via a meaningful ownership stake? Have company insiders been selling or buying? At the margin, these are valuable pieces of collateral evidence for your investment thesis on a company.

6. Recognize the Signs of a Top.

Whether it is tulip bulbs in 17th century Holland, gold in 1849, or Beanie Babies and Internet stocks in the 1990s, any time a crowd has unanimously agreed that a certain investment is a "can't lose" opportunity, you are probably best off to avoid that investment. The tide is likely to soon turn. Also, when you see people making investments that they have no business making (think bellboys giving tips on bonds, auto mechanics day-trading stocks in their shops, or successful doctors giving up medicine to "flip" real estate), that's also a sign to search for the exits.

You can view more tips and other information at our website: www.carifinanceonline.com/

Investment and Wealth Management Unit Department of Management Studies, UWI Cave Hill. Please send queries and comments to Justin.Robinson@Cavehill.uwi.edu

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