Balloon bursts hopes for end to spiraling US-China tensions
Monday was supposed to be a day of modest hope in the US-China relationship. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was going to be in Beijing, meeting with President Xi Jinping in a high-stakes bid to ease ever-rising tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Instead, Blinken was spending the day in Washington after abruptly cancelling his visit late last week as the US and China exchanged angry words about a suspected Chinese spy balloon the US shot down. As fraught as the US-China relationship had been ahead of Blinken’s planned trip, it’s even worse now and there’s little hope for it improving anytime soon.
Even as both sides maintain they will manage the situation in a calm manner, the mutual recriminations, particularly since the shoot-down of the balloon on Saturday that drew a stern Chinese protest, do not bode well for rapprochement.
The setback comes at a time when both sides were looking for a way to potentially extricate themselves from a low point in ties that has had the world on edge.
White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby noted Monday that Blinken’s trip was delayed, not cancelled. But prospects for rescheduling remain uncertain.
“I would put this at a six” on a scale of 10, said Danny Russel, a China expert and former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs in the Obama administration, on the damage to current diplomatic efforts between the two countries.
“The signals I see suggest that there has to be a pause and a line drawn under the incident but once the drama has gone through its final act, there seems to be every intention to re-engineer a trip by the secretary of state,” said Russel, who is now vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute.
The administration will be “starting at a serious deficit,” Russel said. “This is a setback but it’s not impossible to see a return. Absent mismanagement, this is recoverable.”
Blinken and senior Chinese officials do plan to attend at least two international gatherings – the Munich Security Conference in mid-February and a meeting of the Group of 20 foreign ministers in India in early March - that could provide venues for renewed engagement.
But the lost opportunity caused by the balloon incident may be difficult to recreate.
It’s not that the US and China don’t talk. It’s that they talk from extremely divergent points of view with very little leeway for either to step back from entrenched positions that are often directly related to political conditions at home.
Military-to-military channels are used, but they have been hindered by increasing Chinese incursions into Taiwanese air defense zones and aggressive actions in the South China Sea. The result is the US has stepped up reconnaissance flights and warship voyages through the Taiwan Strait.
Diplomatic channels remain open, but for several years they have been dominated by disagreements rather than grounds for potential cooperation and they are now crowded by complaints from both sides over the balloon.