Editorial | Bracing for El Niño

Weather scientists are calling it ‘super’ and ‘Godzilla’ as the El Niño weather phenomenon takes effect after a two-year respite.

El Niño is part of a broader climate cycle and is linked with elevated temperatures across the Caribbean. This means that, as local officials have already warned, Jamaica has to prepare for likely drier, hotter months ahead.

So, the island has to plan effectively for potential drought and, therefore, water management, and possibly a fall in agriculture yields because of parched fields. Policy planners also have to be alert to other issues usually associated with extremely hot weather.

“If a strong El Niño does develop, it’ll boost temperatures in 2026 a bit, but, it will have a particularly large effect on temperatures in 2027 and put that year on track to probably be the warmest year on record after 2024,” Zeke Hausfather, research scientist at Berkeley Earth and climate research lead at technology company Stripe, told NPR, United States-based public broadcasting organisation.

El Niño, (boy child in Spanish) was first used some centuries ago by fishermen in Peru and Ecuador to refer to the unusually warm waters that reduced their catch just before Christmas. La Niña, which means little girl, causes large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the same region, coupled with a reversal of the atmospheric conditions.

In 1997 and 2009, the two El Niño years, annual rainfall was 42 per cent and 34 per cent lower than average, respectively, which is likely to be the case this year. El Niño also resulted in severe droughts across the Caribbean in 2009-2010 and 2014-2016.

In 2024, the WMO State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2023 report confirmed that 2023 was the warmest year on record. Sea levels continued to rise at a higher rate than the global average around much of the Atlantic.

“Unfortunately, 2023 was a year of record climatic hazards in Latin America and the Caribbean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “El Niño conditions during the second half of 2023 contributed to a record warm year and exacerbated many extreme events. This combined with rising temperatures and more frequent and extreme hazards due to human-induced climate change,” she said.

CHALLENGING CONDITIONS

But it is not El Niño events by itself that elevated the concerns of scientists. In recent years, they have warned that the combination of weather phenomenon and the impact of the fossil fuel-induced long-term climate change may intensify the natural temperature extremes, creating more challenging environmental conditions for Jamaica and the Caribbean.

This places increased pressure on policymakers and governments to mitigate the pressures of the climate crisis. In Jamaica’s case, the question of improved water harvesting and storage, including upgrading old infrastructure, has long been on the agenda.

In that regard, we welcome the recent announcement by the environment and water minister, Matthew Samuda, of the completion of engineering studies for a new dam in St Andrew to replace the near 100-year-old Hermitage, as well as major water systems development in northwestern and western regions.

While these and other initiatives the administration has on its agenda are important, there are other things that can and ought to be done, without massive capital outlays, to help cushion the effects of the more frequent, and longer droughts that Jamaica is likely to face.

Among these are strengthened water-conservation programmes, which should be promoted with great intensity and fashion, similar to how disaster preparedness and relief agencies warn against, say, hurricanes. In this case, the public education programme can’t be seasonal, but continuous.

The Gleaner has in the past suggested that water storage systems should be made mandatory for new, large-scale, multi-family developments and commercial buildings. This proposal ought, at least, to be seriously debated.

AGRICULTURE PRACTICES

There needs to be a shift in agriculture practices, which are primarily rainwater dependent, to adapt to increased climate variability. Such an approach to farming is not new to Jamaican agriculture. Small-scale farmers in St Elizabeth, in the southwest of the island, developed techniques to successfully grow crops in a low-rainfall region, giving the parish the reputation of Jamaica’s breadbasket. These techniques, where lost, have to be re-learned and expanded.

At the same time, where possible, drought-resistant crop varieties should be introduced and irrigation networks improved and extended, allied with the introduction of technologies to enhance efficiency in water use and management.

In this regard, the government’s agricultural extension agencies, especially the Rural Agricultural Development Authority has to be even more robust in its engagement with farmers. Similarly, agricultural training and research institutions, particularly the College of Agriculture, Science and Education (CASE), must be deeply immersed in appropriate and applicable research and development, so as to help farmers adapt to the new circumstances.