A remarkable turnaround in nuclear power

Gerald Lalor, Contributor

There seems no end to the increasing demand for energy. Global electricity consumption is expected to grow by over 50 per cent over the next 25 years with most of the energy still coming from fossil fuels despite the consequent build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

To help slow global warming, great efforts are being made to improve existing technologies and to expand the increased use of sources including nuclear power, which are overall low carbon emitters.

The discovery of the splitting of the atom in 1938 led to a vision of unlimited quantities of electricity that was so cheap that "it would not be worth metering". But the lingering images of the destruction of two cities, Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan, each by a single bomb in 1945; the Three Mile Island accident which destroyed a reactor core in 1979, the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, and a history of construction cost and time overruns put a halt to new reactor builds almost everywhere except in France and East Asia for nearly 30 years.

But even so, nuclear power became a huge industry with 440 power reactors in 30 countries supplying 16 per cent of global electricity demand, and steady improvements in safety and economics ensured that (as shown in the chart) nuclear power is very much cheaper than oil and gas and competes with coal even in the United States where abundant coal is readily mined and there is an excellent transportation system for its haulage. Also, nuclear has smaller environmental impact than fossil fuels and the price gap in its favour will increase over time as it becomes mandatory to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide to hold the global average temperature rise even to the present two degrees Celsius increase presently targeted for 2050.

Factors such as these have led to a remarkable turnaround in favour of nuclear power. Between 2004 and 2007, 14 new plants were connected to the grid; 35 new reactors are under construction and a further 91 are ordered or planned. In addition, the United States has extended the operational licences of nearly 50 of their 104 operating plants from 40 to 60 years, with more and longer extensions likely. Many of these have also been upgraded and with higher ratings and are now online over 90 per cent of the time, including maintenance and refuelling periods. The US also has plans to build 19 new reactors. Quite suddenly, nuclear is in demand again and (as shown in the table) numerous countries are now seriously considering nuclear power programmes.

Some of these are huge oil producers and most are developing countries

Although some 95 per cent of Jamaica's electrical energy production is now from imported fuel oil and diesel, and this is unsustainable, Jamaica is rightly absent from this 2009 list. Our present electricity generating capacity is only 779MW; a standard nuclear plant nowadays is larger than that and no one plant should contribute more than about 15 per cent to a grid. But there are two new factors: the Office of Utilities Regulation projections to 2028 are for 1,582 megawatts of power and the long-standing paradigm of "big is better" in nuclear power is being challenged by a new concept of factory-built modular reactors small enough for transport to site by rail, truck or ship, that can be installed and working two to three years after acceptance of the order. Many designs are well advanced and interestingly, a demonstration 10MW plant has been offered free by the manufacturer, Toshiba of Japan, to the small village of Galena (population 100,000) in Alaska.

For the first time, nuclear energy for Jamaica becomes worthy of a full feasibility study in the expectation of opportunities for lower electricity costs and greater energy diversification.

Small nuclear reactors are not new

Actually, small nuclear reactors have been around for a long time powering numerous ships: icebreakers, submarines, cruisers and aircraft carriers. The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson that provided help to Haiti after the recent earthquake is powered by two nuclear reactors. Thousands of reactor years of marine operation have been accumulated - the big news is the new self-regulating and fail-safe designs, with their operational simplicity, which allow installation virtually anywhere. Several designs have the reactor underground which provides additional safety and security and, if considered necessary, they can be fitted with seismic isolators to reduce the probability of earthquake damage. The operating lifetimes without refuelling for some are as long as 50 years and more.

The advances and novel designs are attracting a great deal of attention. The US Energy Secretary Nobel Laureate Steven Chu, someone not given to superlatives, has described them as "one of the most promising areas in the nuclear industry" and the US government has set aside funds to assist in development and licensing. Another famous supporter is Microsoft Corporation's founder Bill Gates who is a major investor in a firm named TerraPower, that is developing a so-called travelling-wave reactor which is designed after start-up with a little uranium 235 to run thereafter on depleted uranium for 60-100 years without refuelling. News that TerraPower and Toshiba are to collaborate on these reactors increased Toshibas' share price by two per cent a few months ago.

A new picture for electricity generation seems to be emerging for small grids and, in addition, there are possible opportunities for small reactors as sources of process heat which should also be worth consideration for the planned Caymanas industrial park.

The market and the manufacturers

Several manufacturers will be seeking regulatory approval for their units during the next few years. They are planning to tap into a market that has about $135 billion in pending orders for large nuclear plants, and to build a new market for which the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates a global demand of 500-1,000 units by 2040. More than 50 designs of small reactors are under development in some 13 countries.

About 15 of these in the size range from around 10MW to 300MW, are in an advanced stage of development in the United States, Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, and Argentina according to the World Nuclear Association. The present leaders include the New Mexico-based company, Hyperion Ltd. (30MW), Japan's Toshiba Corp (10-50MW), and the US Babcock and Wilcox who see their 125MW unit as a modular item which in clusters, would compete favourably with a single large unit in the US. Other manufacturers are more interested in exports to developing countries. Russia's Rosatom Corporation for example, claims that they can deliver a barge with 70MW capacity on board fully staffed, as a turnkey operation anywhere in short order.

PRICE TAG

The commercial availability of small reactors adds a completely new dimension to the feasibility of nuclear power for smaller countries and could be a flexible contributor to Jamaica's electricity supply. These modular reactors allow units to be added as needed with each paying down the infrastructure and construction debt early, thus providing a smaller upfront financial commitment and smaller cash flow while maintaining the optimal unit size power levels recommended for each grid.

Precise costs are not yet available but the apparent range looks like it is from about $1.5 million per megawatt for Chinese and Russian units to two or three times that figure for the others. The benchmark delivered cost of electricity is 5-7 cents per kilowatt hour. These reactors should compete favourably with any energy source available to Jamaica. There would be no radioactive waste disposal problem as the entire core would be returned on exhaustion.

Moving forward

The already-long experience in operating the very small SLOWPOKE research reactor at Mona will be useful, but even a small power reactor requires a very different scale of legal and human infrastructure. This should present no great problem: a great deal of assistance would be available from the IAEA and several developed countries are committed to help developing countries take advantage of nuclear energy. Persons can be trained and proper experience obtained.

The first thing for us, however, is to carry out the necessary examination to be fully satisfied that this is the way to go over the next 7-10 years say. There may be some urgency in this, as there is going to be a lot of competition for the best of the proposed crop of reactors and perhaps also for loan, grant and investment funds.

Professor Gerald C. Lalor is director general of the International Centre for Environmental and Nuclear Sciences (ICENS), UWI, Mona.

• Table. Some countries actively considering nuclear energy programmes (World Nuclear Association, 26, Nov 2009)

Region Countries

Central and Southern Africa - Nigeria, Ghana, Uganda, Namibia.

Central and southern Asia - Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Bangladesh.

SE Asia - Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand.

Middle East and North Africa - Iran, Gulf states including UAE, Yemen, Israel, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Saudi Arabia

Europe - Italy, Albania, Portugal, Norway, Poland, Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Ireland, Turkey.

South America - Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela.Oil production exceeds more than 500,000 barrels per day.