Shift in the economy

Survival is the order of the day from this point onward - for nations, businesses, churches, and non-governmental organisations.

In a bad economy, everyone is affected. When the Church is affected the nation is affected even more (Joel 1 & 2; Malachi 3).

During such times, there is a great demand for poverty reduction, an even greater demand on the nation to better manage its resources, and for businesses to be more frugal.

In the midst of challenges, however, there are always opportunities that exist for survival, if we are ready for the shift.

Today, we are seeing one of the biggest global shifts, and if everyone doesn't shift along with this tide, a lot of shifting out is going to take place.

High Energy Costs

Energy costs have been sky-rocketing and the global heat wave is helping the increase. These costs are wiping out any profits that businesses make and significantly affecting small businesses. As we have seen, many companies are closing.

The airlines alone are proof of the high energy costs - airfares have increased significantly.

Let us look at a few figures for the United States carriers only. The total cost of fuel consumed for the past 11 years on domestic and international flights reveal that in 2000 US$15.2 billion in fuel was consumed for the entire year.

Although subsequent years saw minor decreases, by 2004 the cost of airline fuel consumption rose to US$20.8 billion - a 37 per cent increase over the total for the year 2000.

There was a steady increase in consumption costs during the years following, and by 2008, the cost of fuel consumed totalled US$55 billion. A 163 per cent increase over total for 2004; approximately 2¹/² times the cost of consumption for 2004.

Now the total cost of fuel consumed up to June of this year is $23.3 billion! Which means that consumption costs for the first six months of this year is just about eclipsing the total for 2008! If things continue this way we are headed for a terrible situation!

We must recognise that energy/fuel is what drives economies. If Jamaica and the remainder of the Caribbean, not to mention the US, don't find alternative sources of energy at cheaper rates, then the situation will trigger a global recession unlike anything we have seen in decades.

Not only will the airline industry hit a wall, but the automotive, distribution, manufacturing, real estate and tourism industries, to name a few, will hit rock bottom!

If businesses and nations shift as they ought during this season and put the politics aside and out of their decision-making, alternative and less costly energy sources will then create more jobs and force eastern, oil-rich countries to sell their oil at cheaper rates.

As a result, all other nations can benefit. Poverty (and riots) will decrease; and right now, all the Caribbean nations and the United States have the resources to make this happen!

Food and Energy

I have been warning for years - publicly and privately - about the high cost of food and energy. Fuel costs drive the cost of food!

When costs escalate, the consumer's main focus is survival and purchasing only what is necessary for survival - food, water, and a roof over their heads! When it gets truly desperate, then their focus will simply be food and water! It means that they are going to cut back on spending in all other areas. What happens then is that money will lose its value, and so will real estate.

Remember this, when priorities change, desires change and markets change! Are we willing to embrace this shift and the new opportunities that come with it?

Are managers, entrepreneurs and shareholders willing to engage in new methods of management, and are they willing to seek for new solutions to bring change?

Interestingly, there is a rush now to purchase gold for the purpose of investment.

While we recognise that the value of gold increases during times like these, the priorities of the consumers - rich or poor - can shift to the point that people no longer care about investing in gold, but simply on surviving. What then will be done with the gold being melted and stored?

Steve Lyston is a biblical economics consultant and author of several books, including 'End Time Finance' and 'The New Millionaire'.