The killing of Egypt's Copts

The weekend before last, clashes between Egyptian protesters and the army left more than 20 people dead. The event brought more than one unpleasant subtext to the surface of the country's democratic revolt.

The most obvious one is the sectarian rivalry between Egypt's Coptic Christian minority and Islamist elements, which are seen to be gaining from the democratisation process. Roughly 10 per cent of the country's population belongs to this ancient minority, founded by one of Christ's apostles.

Seemingly isolated in a sea of Islam, the Copts have had an ambivalent relationship to the Arab Spring. While some participated in the demonstrations against Hosni Mubarak, a good many were reluctant to see him go. Mubarak was not exactly a friend to the Christians. But he did keep a lid on the Islamists.

An uncomfortable paradox in the Arab world has been that authoritarian regimes have sometimes proved more tolerant of their minorities than have democratic ones. Iraq's Christians suffered from the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. Egypt's Christians feel democracy will leave them exposed to a similar fate, as Islamist radicals grow bolder.

In part, this reflects the fact that political Islam, faced with decades of repression, had not surprisingly become more militant. The tensions between Copts and Muslims are real in Egypt. The demonstration in question was triggered by Muslim attacks on churches - which Muslim activists insisted had been built without permits.

Army sabotage

But another possible subtext is that elements in the military may be deliberately sowing discord between Christians and Muslims in order to derail the country's move towards democracy. The video evidence of the events certainly seems to give the lie to military claims they were attacked, and military broadcasts calling for Muslims to run to the support of their army did suggest a nasty effort to stir the pot.

Hosni Mubarak had always justified his corrupt, autocratic rule to Western leaders by saying that if he opened the floodgates of democracy, Islamists would take power. There is no question that political Islam has become more important in Egypt in the wake of the Arab Spring. And there is no question that the Copts are anxious.

So, incidentally, is the Christian minority in Syria, another ancient community which has regarded democracy as a somewhat poisoned chalice. Syria's Christians, for example, are over-represented in the country's security apparatus. Their participation in the repression of Syria's own protests, which has attracted Islamist elements (among others), will not go unnoticed.

As if the situation is not tense enough, the US government last week alleged an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington. The White House went so far as to suggest it had evidence connecting the plot to the highest echelons of Iran's security apparatus. In effect, the White House was saying, the ayatollahs knew.

Whether or not the case is proved, it is certain to inflame tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which were already boiling. Conceivably, the Saudis, who had held back from intervening deeply in Syria's affairs, may now throw stronger backing to the rebels there - since the Syrian regime is allied to Iran.

In this kind of febrile atmosphere, the search for scapegoats becomes commonplace. The situation also lends itself to manipulation by extremist elements, which have an interest in fomenting discord, even where none exists.

The slow disappearance of the Middle East's Christian communities has been one of the sad stories of the last half-century. There are many culprits but, so far, few solutions. To date, Lebanon remains the one oasis of hope - a democratic country with a large Christian community, where peaceful coexistence, shaky and tense though it usually is, has prevailed in recent years. As in the rest of the region, Lebanon's Christians will be watching events in Egypt with great concern.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.