Jamaica's deepening crisis of governance

BRUCE GOLDING'S resignation as prime minister before completing a term in office created history and brought into sharp focus a sobering manifestation of Jamaica's deepening crisis of governance - the contracting lifespan of political administrations since 1944.

Norman Manley once expressed the view that only those who were a part of the events of 1938, "could ever understand the fantastic devotion that 'Busta' had from the people". The depth of loyalty to him was reflected in the feeling with which they sang, "We will follow Bustamante till we die". In the general election of 1944, they elected Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) candidates in 22 of the 32 seats, and in the Western Kingston constituency they installed Bustamante with almost 70 per cent of the popular vote.

Five years later, on the eve of the 1949 general election, his declining support among the urban working class forced him to abandon his Western Kingston constituency and seek asylum in Clarendon. Simultaneously, five of his colleagues defected from the JLP to form the Agricultural Industrial Party.

Busta's JLP narrowly won the 1949 election, but disappeared as a political force in the capital city, losing four of the five corporate area seats it had won in 1944, and his administration limped through the second term. The fearless Bustamante of 1938 who gave the masses the confidence to challenge British colonialism had become the conservative ally of the colonial administration as chief minister. By 1949, the national movement had left him behind.

In 1955, Norman Manley, the 'doyen' of Jamaican nationalism, led the People's National Party (PNP) to victory and in his first term of office set standards of performance and integrity that are yet to be superseded. The electorate rewarded him with the most complete re-election mandate given to any leader as the PNP's popular vote increased from 50.5 per cent in 1955 to 54.6 per cent in 1959.

However, Manley never fully recovered from the sudden death of his deputy, Noel Nethersole, and by the end of the first year of his second term, the challenges of urbanisation fuelled by high levels of income disparity began to take their toll.

What finally sank Manley's administration was the split in the national movement on the issue of Federation. In the 1961 referendum on Federation, the electorate refused to support a party whose leaders were so deeply divided on the issue of whether Jamaica's national project could be accommodated within the British construct of a West Indian Federation. The divided PNP never regained the confidence of the electorate and were voted out of office in 1962, half-way into the second term. Jamaica went on to achieve political independence, but the national project never recovered its sense of mission.

The crisis deepens in independent Jamaica. Three years after leading Jamaica into Independence, the 81-year-old Bustamante handed over to his deputy, Donald Sangster, who led the JLP to victory in the 1967 general elections, but died two months later. Shearer emerged as Sangster's successor and was in office for just over a year when the 1968 'Rodney Rebellion' rocked his administration in a violent protest against the racial discrimination and the increasing concentration of economic power taking place during the tenure of Jamaica's first black prime minister. The final nail in Shearer's coffin was driven by his own senior Cabinet colleagues, Edward Seaga, Wilton Hill and Robert Lightbourne, who undermined his leadership with their fight over turf and contributed in no small way to his defeat after just four years in office.

The Jamaican economy grew faster under Shearer than under any other prime minister and so did inequity and racial strife. He never again offered himself for leadership.

No prime minister entered Jamaica House with greater popular support from all social classes than Michael Manley and none articulated the anguish of the poor and dispossessed with more passion, nor launched a more ambitious programme of social and economic reforms. Unfortunately, many of these reforms became unsustainable after the economic crisis of 1973 precipitated by a 400 per cent increase in the cost of oil in one day.

In the euphoria of Michael Manley's overwhelming re-election in December 1976, the defection of the entrepreneurial and professional classes from the PNP went unnoticed. By 1977, the economic crisis deepened and the society became increasingly polarised as 'democratic socialism' and the relationship with Cuba were perceived to be at the root of the worsening economy and the deterioration of the relationship with the United States.

In 1980, after three years of civil strife, the country recorded its worst economic performance in three decades and Michael Manley was voted out by a landslide.

No prime minister came to office with more confidence in its ability to 'put Jamaica right' than Edward Seaga. He had led his party to a landslide victory with a record 59 per cent of the popular vote. He would soon discover, "men make their own history ... but not under circumstances they themselves have chosen" (Marx). Eighteen months after his landslide victory, popular support for the JLP declined to 47 per cent (Stone Polls). Seaga's programme for economic recovery, despite the generous support of the United States of America and an enthusiastic local private sector, was making little progress. "Production levels in 1987 were below real output in the economy over all the years between 1970 and 1976" (Carl Stone).

What saved Seaga was that Manley, not wanting to return to Jamaica House before mending his relationship with the United States, did not contest the 1983 elections. The electorate had to wait until the 1986 local government elections to hand Seaga a decisive defeat, and despite a late recovery in the economy, sent him packing in the 1989 general elections. Seaga, the most authoritarian of Jamaican prime ministers, only won the 1980 elections. He remained as leader of the JLP for 15 years after he was voted out, but was never re-elected.

When Michael Manley returned to office after the 1989 elections, he had settled his differences with the US. This time around he radically changed the basis of governance by liberalising and deregulating the Jamaican economy. In one stroke the traditional role of the state to 'protect' was replaced by the free market.

"It was as if the population was now told to seek its own salvation and to 'sink or swim' in the markets" (Robotham). With an 80 per cent inflation rate in 1991, many found it difficult to swim. In 1992, ill-health forced Manley to retire.

The exceptionalism of P.J. Patterson Patterson was the best-prepared and the most politically astute prime minister of Jamaica. He assumed office in 1992 and the electorate enthusiastically confirmed him in office in 1993. Patterson went furthest in detribalising Jamaican politics and establishing the consultative process as an integral part of governance. His decision to privatise state-owned media set the stage for unprecedented public access. The most critical initiative to emerge during his administration was the attempt by a rising black bourgeoisie to become a part of the traditional white Jamaican economic elite.

This initiative went down with the collapse of the financial sector in 1998, and the gas demonstrations which followed almost forced him out of office. His amazing recovery was assisted not only by his political skills, but the good fortune of having Seaga as Opposition leader who the electorate was clearly not prepared to re-elect at any cost. Something in the Patterson approach to governance led the electorate to make him Jamaica's longest-serving prime minister.

The More Things Change ...

Portia Simpson-Miller assumed office with a 74 per cent approval rating, and shortly after Bruce replaced Seaga as Opposition leader. In the elections called 18 months later, Portia lost to the "new and different" Bruce Golding and in the process became the most popular leader not to be elected as prime minister.

Golding, who defeated Simpson-Miller in 2007, never recovered from the events surrounding the dismantling of the international criminal enterprise in 2010 which had its base in the political garrison created at Tivoli Gardens. Holness is now at the helm and every well thinking Jamaican would want him to succeed as long as he embarks on a programme which subordinates partisan interests to the building of a more effective system of governance.

Unfortunately, it seems that his mandate from the JLP is to win an election, not to lead the party in new directions. Should he call elections in December, before sharing with the Jamaican people the extent of the present economic crisis, a victory for the JLP could go sour after the presentation of the budget in April 2012. Should he serve out the rest of Golding's term, his tenure could be 15 months, three less than the shortest to date.

Arnold Bertram, who attended Calabar, is an historian and former cabinet minister. He is currently writing A History of Calabar High School to be published as part of the school's centenary celebrations. Email address: redev.atb@gmail.com.