No baby boom!

Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Writer

There has been no baby boom in Jamaica over the past 10 years.

In fact, the reality is quite the opposite. Not surprisingly, the decline in births has triggered a marginal increase in Jamaica's population between 2001, when the penultimate census was taken, and 2011.

The figures would suggest that years of urging by the authorities that spawned the maxim 'two is better than too many', among other birth control public-education messages, has sunk into the psyche of young Jamaicans - at least in some quarters of society.

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) revealed yesterday in its census findings that fewer than 500,000 babies were added to the Jamaica population over the past decade, falling from an average of 24.2 per 1,000 between 1991 and 2001 to 17.4 per 1,000 between 2001 and 2011.

In its own words, STATIN attributed the low growth rates to "declining numbers of births".

The figures are contained in the 2011 Population and Housing Census, launched yesterday, which revealed that the population is still less than 2.7 million.

In fact, the precise population figure is 2.678 million, an obvious surprise to some, but not to STATIN officials who had been monitoring the data.

Some Jamaicans had expressed belief that it was higher. This represents a mere 3.5 per cent increase in the nearly 10 years since the 2001 census, which indicated a population of 2.607 million. The 2011 population figure represents an annual growth rate of 0.36 per cent since 2001.

STATIN's director of censuses, demographic and social statistic, Dr Valerie Nam, attributed the slow growth rate to a significant downward trajectory of the birth rate.

This was reflected in the census data which indicated that population changes must be interpreted within the context of the three components of population change - births, deaths and migration.

MIGRANTS HARD TO NUMBER

Nam noted that the figures on births and deaths were not hard to come by - not so for those on migration.

Between 2001 and 2011, 438,318 babies were added to the local population which lost nearly 347,967 persons to death or migration.

The figures also reflect a marginal increase in the death rate, from 6.4 per 1,000 in 1991 to 7.1 in 2001.

STATIN found that the difference in the population from natural increase (difference between births and deaths) was 259,065 over the decade.

"The very low growth rate of 0.356 per cent was only the second time since census taking began in Jamaica in the late 19th century that the rates have been so low," the report stated. "The previous period was between 1911 and 1921 and the low rate at that time attributable to the high levels of migration."

gary.spaulding@gleanerjm.com

Population growth slows due to low rate of births

Change in parish population over 10 years\

Parish	2001	2011
Kingston	96,052	89,057
St Andrew	555,828	573,369
St Thomas	91,604	93,902
Portland	80,205	81,744
St Mary	111,466	113,615
St Ann	166,762	172,362
Trelawny	73,066	75,164
St James	175,127	183,811
Hanover	67,037	69,533
Westmoreland	138,948	144,103
St Elizabeth	146,404	150,205
Manchester	185,801	189,797
Clarendon	237,024	245,103
St Catherine	482,308	516,218

Babies Born

Census year	Number
1911	370,200
1943	765,300
1960	855,500
1970	676,500
1982	747,788
1991	505,844
2001	603,090
2011	438,318

How we have grown since 1911

Census year	Population
1911	831,383
1921	858,118
1943	1,237,063
1960	1,609,814
1970	1,848,512
1982	2,190,357
1991	2,380,666
2001	2,607,632
2011	2,697,983