'Critical three years ahead'

Former Colombian finance minister says Jamaica's turnaround possible but long-term commitment needed

Gary Spaulding, Senior Gleaner Writer

Internationally renowned economist Dr Juan Carlos Echeverry has warned that the next three years will be critical for Jamaica if the country is to extricate itself from the economic muddle in which it has found itself.

Echeverry, who served as Minister of Finance in Colombia between 2010 and 2012, says the country must be prepared for the long haul.

"Having been through the entire process, the next three years will be critical in fulfilling the quarterly targets," Echeverry told The Sunday Gleaner in an exclusive interview during a two-day visit to Jamaica last week as a guest of the World Bank. "This is not a one-year process, this is a multi-year process."

For Echeverry, if Colombia could move from "rock bottom" to achieve economic stability and then growth, so can Jamaica.

A former technocrat, Echeverry has been credited for his role in steering Colombia out of the deep economic crisis in which it had found itself. In 2011, he was voted by four international publications as the best finance minister in the Americas.

Echeverry stressed that Jamaica's focus must be on real tax reforms as well as reform in public expenditure.

He cited unwavering commitment as a requirement in at least three levels - political and economic leadership as well as the technical staff.

"They play different roles, but they need to convince society, especially the most vulnerable part,

Juan Carlos Echeverry PhD. Gladstone Taylor/Photographer

'The plans are feasible, it is going to be hard at some point, but they are feasible and will put the country en route to create employment and growth'

of its plans," he said.

"Obviously, there are differences (between Jamaica and Colombia) but the problems were of a similar kind faced by Jamaica," argued Echeverry.

"Given our experiences, taking into consideration the obvious differences among countries, our first message is that you need a lot of consistency," added Echeverry.

The technocrat-turned-minister has seen and done it all in his own country - when Colombia's economy hit rock bottom with an economic decline of 4.9 per cent, in an environment that had a staggering homicide rate and high levels of narco-trafficking.

Since the intervention of Echeverry and his team, not only has the crime level dipped dramatically, but the economy bounced back to growth levels of up to 7.9 per cent per annum.

According to Echeverry, 15 years ago Colombia was described by many as a failed state.

"I was invited (to be finance minister) due to the experience I had in Colombia of negotiating and signing an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)," he said.

difficult period

"Having been in a difficult period with the economy, where we had a security problem in Colombia with narco-trafficking and the guerillas, we were forced also to do severe fiscal reforms," recalled Echeverry.

His disarming smile and engaging countenance masking an unyielding resolve to reverse the dire economic misfortunes that have beset Jamaica, as it did Colombia a decade and a half ago, Echeverry last week engaged senior technocrats in Jamaica.

Emerging from a workshop with the technocrats, he underscored the importance of all institutions working to achieve the Government's growth agenda.

"The plans are feasible, it is going to be hard at some point, but they are feasible and will put the country en route to create employment and growth," he stressed.

The former Colombian finance minister argued that given Jamaica's high debt burden, it is important that state funds are directed to productive capital projects in order to spur economic growth, while keeping fiscal balances under control.

"Aligning those planks - political, economic direction and technical follow-up - you can have the consistency needed to make the economic plan work.

"We did this in Colombia and the results are very encouraging, we got back to growth, exports, creating employment and fighting crime."

Echeverry argued that all of the facets must be achieved simultaneously.

"But you need the fiscal issues to get in place, otherwise the country will remain in a stalemate."

first order of business

He said to take Colombia out of its economic quagmire, the first order of business was to create a plan to take the country from point A to point B, which he argued has already been done in Jamaica.

"Point A difficulties, and point B possibilities, and the second part of the plan is to make it acceptable for political and economic aid, as well as your population."

Added Echeverry: "We have to be very thorough and clear, if we do this, we will get out of the cold. It's like any crisis management, first it's truth telling - tell the people where you are heading - and the second is implementation, but you have to be consistent."