Jamaica exposure to Russia-Ukraine war seen as no where close to pandemic, crime
Published:Friday | March 11, 2022 | 12:09 AM
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The economic fallout from the war between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to surpass that of the pandemic, participants in a VM economic forum have suggested. The conflict in Europe is in its third week, whereas the pandemic has been ongoing for two...
The economic fallout from the war between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely to surpass that of the pandemic, participants in a VM economic forum have suggested.
The conflict in Europe is in its third week, whereas the pandemic has been ongoing for two years.
Economist and head of the CaPRI think tank, Damien King, said at the forum on Wednesday that while the world is entering a new commodity crisis sparked by the conflict, it was unlikely to shock Jamaica more than the health crisis that sparked recessions and disrupted trade worldwide.
“It would have to go on for a long time, and escalate greatly, for the effects to reach Jamaica and have the consequences that the pandemic had,” said King.
A third-party study that researched the cost of every disaster in Jamaica since its independence from Britain, when adjusted for inflation, found that the cost of the pandemic was 2.5 times greater than Jamaica’s worst natural disaster, which was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.
The Jamaican economy contracted by 10 per cent in the first year of the pandemic, but is now recovering.
Preliminary estimates by the Planning Institute of Jamaica, PIOJ, put annual growth at 4.4 per cent for the period January-December 2021, reflecting expansion in both the goods and services sectors. The PIOJ projects that it will take another two years for Jamaica to unravel all the losses, and should reclaim its pre-pandemic status by year ending March 2024.
The economic forum, hosted by VM Investments Limited in the wake of the opening of the annual budget debate in Parliament on Tuesday, sought to place the discussions within the context of pandemic-battered Jamaicans returning to their livelihoods, while dealing with a rising crime problem.
Minister of Finance Dr Nigel Clarke said no new taxes were planned to finance the country’s $912-billion budget. However, despite pressure from the opposition party to roll back a seven-year-old gas tax in the context of rising oil prices that tested US$130 a barrel, but back below US$110 as of midday Thursday, Clarke is keeping the levy in place — a decision that King supports — but will be providing $2 billion of support to specially selected groups, such as taxi operators and social welfare beneficiaries, as offset against rising petrol prices.
King said a reduction in the gas tax would result in the Government losing money, while providing a subsidy for the middle-class and rich.
“You do not want to lower the price of petrol because, by and large, those who are well-off use the most petrol; so, you would be giving relief at the wrong end of the income scale,” said King. “If welfare is your objective, it is always better to make it targeted,” he said.
Crime rising
Under the pandemic, violent crime in Jamaica has been rising. The issue has always been a concern of corporate Jamaica, but more recently those in the financial sector have been given it more focus as well. In January, for example, instead of focusing on developments in the capital markets, the chairman of the Jamaica Stock Exchange chose instead to speak to solutions to crime at the exchange’s premier calendar event, its annual regional conference.
Dr Anthony Harriott, the director of the Institute of Criminal Justice and Security at the University of the West Indies, theorises that crime is now being driven more by cultural factors rather than socio-economic fallout.
Over the decades, society has developed attitudes, beliefs and behaviours around criminality, he said. For example, males are particularly hypersensitive to insults; as such, a verbal ‘dis’ often results in a physical response.
These minor crimes often go without legal penalties, he said, adding that the problem intensifies when looking at serious crime, with only 8.0 per cent of murders in a given year resulting in conviction. The courts will say they have a 40 per cent conviction rate, but that’s for the murder cases put before the courts, not the total murders committed, the academic said.
Some 1,400 persons were murdered last year, pushing Jamaica towards the top spot among the most murderous countries in the hemisphere.
“We need to push violence out of the public sphere and improve the conviction rate and, therefore, generate general deterrents,” said Harriott. “We need to use the courts more,” he said.
When Harriott started his research 30 years ago, serious crimes were confined to the hours between midnight and 4 a.m. Now, serious crimes are committed even in daytime.
“It signals to us that the people conducting such activity are sensing that there is low risk,” he said.