Francis Wade | The hidden danger for companies in falling crime

You have undoubtedly heard the good news: major crime has fallen in Jamaica. Perhaps you have your doubts about these reports, but as a corporate leader, you may be missing something important. Could this welcome change wreak havoc on your strategy?

The fact is, we have seen a drop in crime before.

Following the 2010 crackdown on ‘Dudus’, when almost a hundred criminals were “removed” by death or migration, crime plummeted. For a short while.

Consequently, you are sceptical. Perhaps your leadership is too afraid to start celebrating.

The truth? Our society and economy now rest on a foundation of fear plus zero growth, which we have all come to accept. Companies like yours have adjusted their operations accordingly.

But what if the new reports are not only true, but sustainable? What if decades of an ‘unsafe Jamaica’ are ending? Unfortunately, if you cling to old assumptions, you could be left out in the cold. How do you ensure your success?

Step 1: Fact-check the ‘good news’

I recently had an eye-opening conversation with Dianne McIntosh, Executive Director of the Citizens Security Secretariat, CSS, formed in 2020. There’s much in their long-term thinking to address in future columns, but I shared the major concern most have: Would I be disappointed? Will criminal activity go back up?

Of course, she couldn’t guarantee anything. But she was kind enough to describe the leading data indicators the CSS uses. No ‘buck-up’ here. The metrics did not just suddenly shift themselves. Instead, targeted “whole-government” interventions in policing, communities, and schools predicted the change.

So, while her team welcomed the outcomes, they were not surprised.

As such, what we must do is fact-check the multi-year, cause-and-effect model they used and the data emerging. So far, based on my understanding, there is good news. For the first time in our nation’s history, this approach to crime could be sustainable.

However, as an organisational leader, this shouldn’t be just verandah talk for you. If there’s anything enduring taking place, you must consciously reconsider your team’s long-term strategy. Here’s why.

Step 2: Turn ignorance into strategy

With a knowing smile and a confident nod, most Jamaican leaders of organisations agree: “Of course we have a long-term plan.” Some point to their heads: “It’s all up here!” Others share their statements of vision or purpose. These tend to be generic.

The real test comes when you question their company colleagues at the top. Too often their responses are incoherent.

That familiar approach won’t work in this instance.

Consider that a permanent drop in crime is likely to have a far greater effect on business than a pandemic. Or an insurrection. Or even a tariff. For example, high crime has cost us approximately 2-4% of GDP growth according to some experts.

But a deep dive into the specific impact of a recovery tells a different tale from the universal benefit we would expect.

In Colombia, the steep drop in homicides and kidnappings between 2002 and 2010 devastated the private security industry. The sector, which employed some half a million armed guards (more than the army and police combined) contracted sharply.

Now, imagine yourself leading King Alarm, Hawkeye, or Guardsman. Instead of steady growth and reliable profits, you could be facing a dramatic disruption.

Here’s what you can do if your firm could be affected, even indirectly.

Step 3: Rebuild your business model today

The example of crime is just one possible disruption among many.

For instance, between 2017 and 2019 I worked with a financial services company that didn’t think their countrymen were ready for online offerings. The prevailing mood was: “Someday … maybe.” When I pressed them to pick a date and strategise accordingly, they presumed a 10-year horizon.

Then, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic arrived. In order to meet the mandates and close their banking halls, they didn’t panic. They pulled out their detailed plan, compressed the dates and made the switch.

Without strategic foresight, you can become your own worst enemy. How? According to Clay Christensen, your team becomes dependent on its prior success. Playing defence, it clings to proven tactics. This dependency displaces real innovation.

In this context, a change in our crime rate should be seen as an objective reality. The same applies to GDP growth.

A safer Jamaica is an undeniable gift. But for you, a corporate leader, it’s also a test. Will you hang on to the old ways or embrace the new normal? True foresight means seeing a threat where others see a victory.

Redefine what’s possible for your company – and do it before the world does it for you. The time to act is now.

Francis Wade is a management consultant and author of Perfect Time-Based Productivity. To search past columns on productivity, strategy and business processes, or give feedback, email: columns@fwconsulting.com