Circling the issue: Strategy & policy as a modern weather system / forecaster When global politics cancels your flight: What Venezuela disruption really means for businesses

What made a fortnight ago so unsettling was not only the disruption itself, but the underlying message it delivered. Political decisions can now materialise in operational and commercial life with near-zero notice. That is why governments, Jamaica included, and businesses across the globe must lean more deliberately into the question, ‘what does this mean now?’ We are entering an era where the boundary between geopolitics and everyday commerce is thin enough to tear on a Saturday morning.

Jamaica – small, globally connected, and deeply interdependent with international systems of trade, travel, finance, and logistics – cannot afford to treat this reality as someone else’s problem.

One minute you are choosing a seat near the front. The next, you are choosing which island you can afford to be stranded on.

That became the Caribbean’s reality over the first weekend of January 2026, after US military action in Venezuela triggered temporary airspace restrictions and a cascade of flight cancellations across multiple regional routes. Major carriers cleared schedules, airports became congested, and families did the maths on unexpected hotel nights. Jamaica was not the epicentre, but we were firmly inside the blast radius – close enough for cancellations to ripple into Jamaica-bound itineraries and close enough to learn the real lesson: in today’s world, geopolitics behaves like weather. It arrives quickly, shifts direction without warning, and leaves businesses with two choices: plan for it, or pay for it.

The headlines made the episode feel exceptional. The business implication is more sobering. This is becoming routine. The modern risk is no longer the event itself. It is the chain reaction that follows.

Jamaican enterprises have traditionally framed ‘disruption’ as a singular occurrence – a storm, an industrial action, a currency fluctuation, or a delayed shipment. The Venezuela airspace episode demonstrates something more complex. It illustrates how second-order effects now drive first-order consequences. The Venezuela airspace episode is a case study in second-order effects.

When airspace gets restricted, airlines do not simply pause operations. They reroute, reposition aircraft, reshuffle crews, and prioritise hubs that restore network stability. What appears to the customer as a single direct flight is in reality a delicate chain of permissions, assets, crew hours, fuel contracts, insurance thresholds, and geopolitical risk assessments. When that chain breaks, the product does not disappear. It becomes unreliable. In other words, the customer’s ‘one direct flight’ is actually a fragile chain of assets, permissions, and timing. When the chain breaks, your product becomes inconvenient – even if your hotel bed is perfectly made and your restaurant is fully staffed.

That unreliability does not only affect hotels and tour operators. It impacts manufacturers awaiting inputs, professional services firms dependent on regional mobility, exporters managing delivery commitments, financial institutions hosting international engagements, and small businesses whose cash flow depends on predictable timing. Even when services are ready, staff are present, and demand exists, disruption at the system level can instantly devalue operational readiness. So yes, this moment is about Venezuela. However, it is more accurately about how quickly decisions taken outside the region can reprice certainty within it. That is the shift Jamaican businesses must now confront.

What it means for Jamaican businesses

Tourism operators: The immediate risk is not only cancellations, it is confidence. Short periods of disruption raise travellers’ doubts about ease of exit. This affects occupancy curves, excursion sales, staffing, and cash flow planning across the sector.

SMEs serving tourism: The small players get hit first and recover last. Flight delays turn scheduled services into missed or postponed revenue, while staff, inventory, and capacity costs remain fixed. This is where disruption stops being dramatic and becomes financially damaging. Disruption quickly becomes a financial strain.

Online businesses and courier-dependent enterprises: Jamaica’s online economy relies heavily on air transport. Delays affect delivery timelines, customer satisfaction, and refund volumes. When routing changes or capacity tightens, shipping costs rise and delivery windows stretch. For businesses operating on thin margins or high turnover, even short disruptions can erode profitability and trust.

Importers and exporters: Importers face inventory gaps and higher freight charges. Exporters risk missed delivery windows and contract penalties. These pressures are often amplified by currency movements, directly influencing pricing and margins.

Foreign exchange earners and remittance-linked businesses: Sectors reliant on foreign currency inflows – including tourism, exports, professional services, and

diaspora-linked commerce — are sensitive to volatility triggered by geopolitical uncertainty. Even short-term disruptions can affect settlement timing, cash flow forecasting, and exchange rate exposure.

Corporate Jamaica across sectors: Any business that relies on travel, imports, international clients, or time-sensitive delivery is exposed. Disruption compresses decision cycles. There is no week to plan, only hours to respond. Prepared businesses respond faster and absorb shocks more effectively.

The businesses that navigate these moments best are not those with the most optimism, but those with clear contingency playbooks and delegated decision authority.

The strategic question: should we panic or relax?

Neither. Panic reflects weak governance. Relaxation reflects misplaced confidence.

The correct posture is preparedness grounded in realism – and it is cheaper than it sounds. Most Jamaican firms do not need a ‘war room’; they need a short, ruthless checklist that turns uncertainty into procedure.

The playbook for mid-size Jamaican businesses in 2026

1. Assume disruption is seasonal, not rare. If your financial plan assumes smooth travel and perfect logistics, you are budgeting for a world that no longer exists.

2. Build ‘flex capacity’ into customer promises. Hotels, attractions, and service providers should design packages that can shift dates without destroying margin. Flexibility is not generosity; it is product design.

3. Harden contracts against disruption and chaos. Review force majeure, refund policies, supplier penalties, and ‘who pays for delay’ clauses. If your contract language is vague, cash flow exposure will not be.

4. Diversify routing and partners. For corporate travel, do not rely on a single airline or connection city. For imports, do not rely on a single shipping rhythm. Single points of failure are efficient – until they are catastrophic.

5. Run a 48-hour cash flow stress test. Ask: if revenue stalls for 48 hours while costs continue, what breaks first? The answer identifies what must be fixed now.

6. Crisis communications: one voice, and speed. When disruption hits, silence is not neutral. It reads as disorganisation. Prepare response templates and a simple, clear escalation ladder so customers hear from you before they hear speculation.

7. Operational intelligence is now a competitive advantage. Assign responsibility for monitoring airline advisories, travel waivers, logistics notices, and official alerts during peak periods. This is not paranoia. It is situational awareness.

In the modern world, resilience is not a slogan. It is a system.

And the businesses that build the system will not just survive the next disruption – they will quietly take market share while others are still refreshing the flight status page.

Dr. Charlene Ashley has uniquely carved out a multidisciplinary career at the nexus of business strategy, organisational behaviour, marketing & financial management, a combination few have mastered. She blends the science of human behaviour with the rigour of project management and strategic business design, anchored by internationally recognised certifications and global standards to deliver models, frameworks and transformational results across industries, countries, and cultures.