PIOJ warns AI adoption will cut working and middle-class jobs

The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) said Wednesday that artificial intelligence (AI) will displace clerical and professional workers, but that research continues on the scale of displacement throughout the workforce.

"There is still some debate on the exact type and nature of jobs to be replaced," PIOJ Director General Dr Wayne Henry said at the agency's quarterly press briefing.

The warnings come as the economy contracted by roughly 5.9 per cent during the January to March 2026 quarter, compared with the corresponding period in 2025.

"We have to engage with the technology in different ways, and we have to pivot and position ourselves to benefit as we continue to see the promulgation of this new technology," said Henry.

Henry acknowledged that the consensus on AI's impact has shifted. What was once thought to threaten mainly low-level, repetitive roles is now seen as reaching further up the occupational ladder, into fields requiring advanced computation, such as actuarial science.

"The overall value proposition is that AI adoption will improve productivity," he said, adding that the literature suggests skilled persons can engage with AI to enhance productivity and output. "So, there's a mixed bag in terms of the analysis so far."

Research from the University of Technology, Jamaica (Utech) titled 'Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Jamaican Job Market: Quantity and Quality,' by Paul Golding, found that approximately 22 per cent of Jamaica's workforce faces high to medium automation exposure. Of that group, 56,695 workers, or 4.0 per cent of the labour force, face high exposure. The workforce currently stands at 1.44 million, according to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica. The paper warns that AI-enabled automation disproportionately threatens female-dominated occupations, particularly clerical roles and call centre work.

"Research at UTech suggests that roughly 60,000 jobs are expected to be at risk," said Henry. The government's response centres on human capital development and skills training. "That's our overall strategy of resilience building.”

The PIOJ expects a rapid “V-shaped” recovery, with growth projected between 1.0 and 3.0 per cent for the fiscal year ending March 2027. It’s contingent on the absence of any serious shock as the economy continues to recover from Hurricanes Beryl and Melissa in 2024 and 2025. 

business@gleanerjm.com