Ronald Thwaites | What are the priorities for economic recovery

By tomorrow’s sitting of Parliament, Minister Clarke and the other front-line ministers of agriculture, manufacturing, mining and education must be expected to present plans for the reset of the economy. In fact, the whole Budget needs a reset. No one knows where the economy really stands at this juncture.

You will notice that I have not mentioned tourism because, with a pandemic and recession raging in our major markets, I really do not see that industry recovering in the near future.

Moreso, whatever the transfusion of taxpayer dollars we offer to the hospitality sector, how deep or available are the cash reserves or bank forbearance which will provide for hotel, restaurant and attraction survival until post COVID-19?

Of course, I hope to be proven wrong for the sake of the tens of thousands of workers, owners and suppliers to the hospitality trade. So if Minister Bartlett has a plausible plan, let him too pour balm in the tourism Gilead tomorrow.

STATIN confirmed the dread news last week. A free-fall decline of over 18 per cent of GDP in the quarter, and more to come. This spells tragedy not only for the growing numbers of unemployed, but to the 60 per cent or so of Jamaican workers pegged at the obsolete and unjust minimum wage of US$50 per week. People have to be cutting back on their children’s food. It is that bad.

Now is when the cruel deceit of the ‘5 in 4’ promise really hurts. By the way, didn’t some of those in the present Cabinet stake their reputation on its achievement? Is failure and surly silence the basis of their promotion?

I really rate Nigel Clarke’s sincerity and acumen. He cannot delay in telling us whether the $80 billion he last projected as lost revenue is still a realistic figure. Also, for all of us trying to ‘reset’ (which is very different from ‘recover’) our personal and business economies, please indicate a foreign exchange scenario for the rest of the financial year. For if he doesn’t, everyone is going to hedge a worst-case picture, and prices and flight to hard currency will increase.

PRIORITIES GOING FORWARD

Talk it straight: with little coming from tourism and remittances likely to be affected by tight, post-stimulus economies abroad, how can the nation afford to import all the things we are accustomed to order? Exports are declining, aren’t they? What are our priorities going forward? We need a frank conversation about the wide-open doors to currency speculation. What fundamentals have been propping up the exchange rate in recent weeks?

Seriously, it is a most difficult time to be in government, and with the election money running out and Christmas coming, the demands on elected representatives are going to be withering. And these backbenchers are the same people who Ed Bartlett expects us to believe will hold their front bench to account and contemplate systemic change in robust committee work!

There can come a time when the large size of your majority becomes an albatross instead of an advantage. Spurred on by the arrogance of power already evident last week regarding the House committee chairmen and an absence of a compelling ideology, governance easily becomes self-absorbed and transactional. In that climate there are always many sore losers. Just wait and watch. Some of us remember the early 1980s.

The way forward, the only basis for optimism, lies in difficult, radical, systemic change in most areas of governmental function, beginning with the public sector. Last week, I met two retired school administrators who have been waiting more than two years to start getting their pensions. Life is stuck for them, and their situation is not unusual. Similarly, without sharp productivity monitoring in public schools and offices, the work-from- home regimen can be a scam for getting pay for little or no output.

Or try negotiating a land transaction where the Government actually gains revenue, yet the process is unduly turgid and dilatory. If you want more evidence, come with me to any tax office or to a courthouse, where the injustice of delay and corruption have been normalised.

NEW WORK ORDER

The civil service structure is simply not fit for purpose to execute the state activity required to snatch a dispirited population out of recession and into the reset of inclusive, sustainable growth. With declining revenue and no improved accountability, how do we approach the imminent public-sector wage negotiations? And shouldn’t we expect the workers’ representatives to lead in the imagining and advocacy of the new work order?

Frothy public relations, handouts and campaign swagger cannot camouflage what Howard Mitchell calls the ‘avalanche of economic downturn’ which is upon us. As united as we ought to be, it is time now for all who mean to thrive in this blessed country to engage in a fearless discourse as to the systemic changes required for progress and prosperity.

And as a postscript. Last year, I initiated an unpopular discussion in Parliament about the remuneration of members. When it became clear that the Government, while acknowledging the poor pay, were afraid of proposing a just increase, I pleaded for at least a continuation and improvement of our contributory health insurance scheme.

Well, consistent with the mentality advanced above, nothing has been done. So retiring representatives lose their health insurance at the time when they need it most, and will be unlikely to be able to secure alternative coverage. Sensing the drift of unconcern or fear, I made other arrangements. Many cannot do so.

Years ago, I chaired a House committee at which several retired members of both parties, even at the level of a deputy prime minister, related their distress and embarrassment at being unable to cover their medical expenses. Successive Cabinets have had to make quiet donations to many of them. The cruelty continues.

Rev Ronald G. Thwaites is an attorney-at-law. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.