Editorial | Lesson from Canada

It is not yet clear about all the lessons that other countries should learn from Canada’s election on Monday, which gave the Liberals a fourth consecutive term in government.

But one obvious takeaway should not be lost on the United States and the Trump administration. No one, or very few people outside the US president’s base, wants a leader who is, or perceived to be, like Donald Trump – or who is too close to him.

While Jamaica and its neighbours and partners in the Caribbean do not enjoy the same insulation, or economic and political manoeuvrability as Canada, it is possible to build domestic consensus around the preservation and protection of national and regional interests.

Jamaica and the Caribbean do not have to fold at the first reflex, command or request of external forces, even powerful ones.

An estimated quarter million Jamaicans live in Canada.Up to a few months ago, the Liberals, a centre-left party, appeared headed for a heavy electoral defeat and possible wipeout.

After a decade in power, buffeted by inflation and a sense among Canadians that the country was heading in the wrong direction (the shortage and price of homes was a big issue), the party and its leader, Justin Trudeau, were deeply unpopular. The Liberals were also racked by infighting, including calls for Mr Trudeau to step aside.

The Conservatives, led by the pugnacious Pierre Poilievre, enjoyed a 25 per cent lead in opinion polls. Poilievre, a populist with a reputation for calling his opponents names, appeared destined to be Canada’s next prime minister, with a big majority in the Commons.

Then three things happened, the most important of which was probably the re-election of Donald Trump as America’s president.

Even before he assumed office, Mr Trump flagged his intention to rip up global and multilateral trade agreements, including the one with the US, Mexico and Canada (USMCA), as part of his strategy to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States under his ‘America First’ ideology. Trade between the three countries was valued at US$1.8 trillion in 2024, with US$726 billion of that being US-Canada trade. In office, Mr Trump has imposed tariffs of 25 per cent on vehicles from Canada, a similar duty on steel, and 10 per cent on aluminium.

IMPORTANT DEVELOPMENTS

With the United States accounting for three-quarters of Canada’s exports, Mr Trump’s actions threaten major upheavals in the country’s economy.

Trump further roiled Canadians by saying repeatedly that their country should be USA’s 51st state, and with humiliating references to Prime Minister Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau”.

The second thing that happened is that in January, Mr Trudeau resigned as leader of the Liberal Party, and announced that he would stay on as prime minister until the new Liberal leader was elected.

Then, the third important development occurred. Last month, the Liberals, in a ranked-choice voting system, overwhelmingly elected Mark Carney, a former central banker, as the party’s leader. Mr Carney has served as governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, a unique distinction.

All the Canadian parties and their leaders rejected Mr Trump’s policies and endorsed Ottawa’s retaliation against his tariffs. They all insist on Canada’s independence and sovereignty. They have used sharp language against Mr Trump.

IMPROBABLE VICTORY

Somehow, though, unable to campaign against Mr Trudeau, Mr Poilievre never quite achieved the pivot. And many voters believed that he was too like Mr Trump, with whom his base identified.

Notably, not only did the Conservatives lose the election, Mr Poilievre, 45, lost the Commons seat which he had held for two decades.

Mr Carney, 60, did not get the “strong mandate” he hoped for and will likely have to govern with the support of small parties. Nonetheless, the Liberals achieved an improbable victory.

Obviously, Canadians have placed their trust in Mr Carney’s experience and skill as a central banker, who, as governor of the Bank of Canada, led the country through the 2008 global financial crisis.

The other side of the coin is that Canadians do not want to be bullied, or to be humiliated into being Americans. Mr Carney was able to forge a consensus that he was the best leader to stave off Mr Trump.

“As I’ve been warning for months, America wants our land, our resources, our water,” he said in declaring victory. “President Trump is trying to break us, so he can own us. That will never happen.”

There is a lesson here, it seems, for others.