Elizabeth Morgan | Uninspiring global leadership in this Trump era

The 49th session of the Conference of CARICOM Heads of Government is scheduled to be held in Montego Bay, July 6-8, though you may not have noticed. The theme of the conference is given as ‘People, Partnerships, Prosperity: Promoting a Secure and Sustainable Future’. As of July 1, Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness will assume the chair of CARICOM.

The agenda of the 48th CARICOM Heads included CSME, geopolitical developments, crime and violence, food and nutrition security, climate change and climate finance, and economic issues. It is assumed that the 49th agenda will be much the same.

TRUMP UNILATERAL POLICIES

At the halfway point this year, no one can be left in any doubt that the global economy is in a difficult place aggravated by tariffs imposed unilaterally on all countries by the US Trump administration as of April 2. CARICOM countries also received the 10 per cent baseline tariff. The reciprocal tariffs were suspended for 90 days to July 9. Subsequently, Trump announced that countries would be receiving letters outlining their new tariffs.

Some countries, including China, have been in trade negotiations with the Trump administration but, so far, there seems to be only one trade agreement with the United Kingdom. China, in negotiations, got a reduction in the extraordinary tariffs applied. Other negotiations are trudging along as these, it would seem, are one-sided favouring the USA. So, countries are waiting to see what the next move will be over the next few days.

Economic growth forecasts from the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are projecting that trade tensions and policy uncertainties will drive down global growth.

Of course, we are aware of the other threats made to countries by the Trump administration, such as annexation, immigration bans, and the situation regarding military support and peace negotiations. Recently, the USA exhibited its military might in Iran.

Although on military might, it is one thing to use superior military force and another to actually record long term victories and improvements in countries’ governance. It is assessed that since World War II, the US has recorded one success in its major military adventures.

It is also clear with its withdrawals and threats that the Trump administration is undermining the multilateral system of global governance which has been important in maintaining relative global peace, security and prosperity, and is important to small island developing states, such as those in CARICOM. Note that the US is not attending the 4th International Conference on Financing for Development being held in Spain, June 30-July 3.

POLITICAL LEADERSHIP

The patron saint of politicians is Saint, Sir Thomas More, who was an English lawyer and statesman. He served as Lord High Chancellor of England under the despot, King Henry VIII. More is known for his strong moral convictions and was executed for standing up for his beliefs and not yielding to coercion.

In the world today, that type of selfless leadership based on integrity and courage seems to be in short supply in many countries, including in the USA. Statesmanship is becoming rare.

GLOBAL LEADERSHIP RESPONSE

In the current situation, it is evident that many world leaders are erring on the side of caution in their dealings with the Trump administration. Trying not to poke the bear.

Leaders in Europe, including the United Kingdom, have applied flattery and any action, offering state visits for example, to stroke the president’s ego in order not to incur his wrath, to secure US continuing support, or market access. In trade, the European Union is endeavouring to keep a united front and to protect their interests. Some partnerships are being forged. Canada and Mexico are applying the similar strategies, with Canada having even more at stake.

Not much is being heard from leaders in the global south. The truth may be that some are remaining below the radar fearing personal sanctions and a few may be benefitting from Trump policies.

The BRICS alliance now has 10 full members and 12 partner countries. A lot was expected from them. The president of South Africa, current president of the G20, has a strained relationship with the USA. Russia is embroiled in the Ukraine War and all is not well there either. Both India and China, it seems, are considering their national positions. Of the new members, Iran at the moment is in a vulnerable position. Brazil, along with other South American countries, seems to be seeking a closer relationship with China. India has been trying to strengthen its relationships in Latin America and the Caribbean and elsewhere, while maintaining its relationship with the USA.

Brazil currently holds the presidency of BRICS and is scheduled to host the 17th BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro, July 6-7, under the theme ‘Strengthening Global South Cooperation for more Inclusive and Sustainable Governance’. The BRICS Foreign Ministers met in Rio de Janeiro in April focusing on the global economic challenges, including the Trump tariffs. This BRICS Summit will be held simultaneously with that of CARICOM. It will be interesting to see what comes from it. Recall that Brazil will also host the UN Climate Change Conference (COP 30).

As previously addressed, the April Summit of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean Countries sounded a somewhat cautious note. It is now known that the Commonwealth Trade Ministers meeting in Namibia, did not have strong ministerial attendance.

Africa was also hit with the US 10 per cent tariff suspending the non-reciprocal preferential Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, and had some high reciprocal tariffs deferred to the July 9 deadline. The African reaction to the tariffs have been mixed, some capitulating, some cautious, and some resistance. Zimbabwe, for example, caved immediately, reducing all tariffs on US goods imports, and, apparently, getting nothing in return. Kenya, Nigeria, Madagascar, Mauritius and Lesotho may be looking to diplomacy. Some countries are also seeking other trade opportunities.

Interestingly, a peace agreement was brokered by the USA between Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo with the USA benefiting from critical minerals. Trade seemed to be high on the US agenda.

Of course, Africa is supposed to be implementing its Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement to increase intra-continental trade and emphasising African unity through the African Union. The Trump policies have exposed serious weakens in African trade and its continuing external dependence. From reports, there has been no coordinated response from the African Union.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has 10 member states, including Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Brunei, Cambodia, and aims to promote economic and security cooperation among its members. Responding to their tariffs, it is reported that ASEAN members are endeavouring to have a joint approach to the US and to further advance their regional integration to improve intra-regional trade and to increase trade with other countries in Asia and Oceania. The political leadership here seems to be more courageous, proactive and innovative.

CARICOM, like Africa, overnight, lost its non-reciprocal preferential access to the US market under Caribbean Basin Initiative. To date, as far as is known, there has been no reaction from CARICOM as individual countries or as a region. It is assumed that the CARICOM Heads will discuss the current Trump policies and their impact on the region, and possibly issue some statement.

The problem starkly revealed in most regions is the heavy economic and security dependence on the USA which requires leaders, many in the global south, to tread very cautiously. This Jamaican proverb may be apt: “When hand in lion mouth, tek time draw it out”.

Hopefully, this is a wake-up call in the global south.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com