Orville Taylor | Don of dons: in pole and poll position

Not everything that ‘Gallups’ is a winning horse. In equine races, unlike motorsports, there is no advantage gained at the start by being faster. Perhaps because when the descendants of Zaleucus and Caroline Park are on the track, the interest of the ‘bettor’ is paramount and must not be advantageous to the ‘better’ horse.

Gambling is based on randomness, and probability, which as dunce as my math teacher used to tell me that I was; somehow, one man, John T Rupley, made it simple.

Fifty years later, the formula for the quadratic equation has lasted even longer than the pettiness of an unmasked academic, and it is extremely useful in understanding opinion polls and surveys.

Using straight mathematics, the survey method involves the drawing of a sample, not very different from when one dips a cup in a pot of soup, and is therefore able on the basis of what is captured in that cup, to make an overall statement about what the rest of the contents is like.

When the method is used correctly, the results are surprisingly accurate. In fact, as with other kinds of research, such as those involving the efficacy of drugs, there is always the likelihood of some degree of bias. After all the surveys are carried out by humans, even if it is a research assistant inputting data for an astrophysicist.

VALID AND RELIABLE

Nevertheless, social surveys, which include political polls, are far more valid and reliable in measuring cause and effect and the outcomes of certain phenomena, than natural sciences such as meteorology.

When one compares the predicted path of hurricanes over the last 30 years, with social mapping based on academic performance, the tables are not even close in favour of the sociologists.

Following the tradition of sociologist Lloyd Brathwaite, and demographer, George Roberts, political sociologist Carl Stone, emerged in the mid-1970s and began a novel era, where, academics engaged national issues, in ‘real time’.

He was extremely accurate generally reflecting the opinions of the public, using the survey method, based on scientific or random sampling. Stone eponymously had a solid 100 per cent record in predicting Jamaican elections up his death in 1993.

For all the bitter pills his detractors swallowed; nothing assuaged their ‘electile’ dysfunction, when the ballots were counted.

Whether directly, as with the Department of Sociology, Psychology and Social Work, via the next generation of bright people such as my brother Ian Boxill, or through passing it on to others on the fringe of the academy; yes! You got it, the modern survey methodology was ‘cast in Stone.’

As the 1990s came to a close, in the aftermath of Stone’s demise, a don came along. No PhD, but we forget that many of the academic forefathers had none, Don Anderson came in with the sound of Pinchers’ “I’m Don and who’s a Donovan ... man...”

An obscure man, he fought and others made a stink, because some of his predictions went against the narrative. Even today, I recall a private conversation when someone was cautioned that there was going to be a new man in the yard and they laughed him to scorn.

ONE DON STANDING

In the end, it was one don standing.

No one is perfect. However, Anderson’s record in forecasting election results, puts him in a category which only he occupies today.

Hitting some key polls over the years, Anderson will be remembered for his 1997 predictions in our general election. While others predicted a close race, he was spot on in foretelling a 50:10 outcome for the People’s National Party (PNP).

Thought not a sociologist, Anderson uses the same research methodology and in fact, worked and trained in the UK in the early 1970s before forming his marketing firm which celebrates 50 years this year.

His first political poll was commissioned by Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) icon, Edward Seaga in 1989, having worked for the Bustamante Institute for Public Affairs.

One might conveniently forget, that he did predict that unknown PNP’s Glenville Shaw beating ‘resident’ incumbent Dr Neville Gallimore in South West St Ann.

In the same election he warned that Babsy Grange would keep Central St Catherine green, leaving Bruce Golding to sing the blues.

Engaged by this newspaper, in 2002, the Don was ‘Spot On’ with 100 per cent accuracy in both seat count and the PNP’s margin of victory in the popular vote.

Back at it again in 2007, this time working for a ‘rival’ media house he dropped the figures 32-28 for the JLP. ‘Bulleye’, although weeks before, critics had used a faecal suffix.

When the JLP bowed to the “call it, Andrew, call it” in 2011, the number did not lie, but sycophants did. The PNP won.

Kicking over its bucket of milk, the PNP, nosedived from its slight lead in 2016, to a losing split of 32-31.

Within a margin of error of four per cent, a loss by either would have been the correct result.

Between 2017 and 2020 all polls said ‘green’. Prior to the 2020 election, Anelecti’s 16 per cent lead for the JLP translated into a 49-14 seat win for the JLP, as predicted.

Last year’s Local Government elections began with Anderson’s polled statistical dead heat.

When the dust had settled, as forecast, the PNP won the popular vote and the JLP gaining more councils, Don was on key but no donkey.

The election odour is like a family goat tied outside the window. Watch his numbers. True, elections are won on the day, but do not kill the messenger.

Orville Taylor is senior lecturer at Department of Sociology at The University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com