Orville Taylor | Too tight to call

No ballot papers are given out at political rallies. Whether seas of green or orange fields, right now we have a statistical dead heat.

If we recall how close Kishane Thompson lost to Noah Lyles last Olympics, or how the same thing happened to Ackeem Blake last Wednesday, then we know that victory is not guaranteed unless one runs the last 20 metres well.

Thin margins are no bases for confidence, whoever mobilises voters on the Election Day will win.

A few months ago, the People’s National Party (PNP) had a small, measurable lead. With the election just two weeks away, it would take a brave man or, of course, a dedicated Labourite or Comrade, to pick a winner. Backing the ‘V’ or the other hand signal, is so risky.

Based on the Don Anderson polls, in almost every statistical category, the PNP and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Are inseparable by the data. When both parties are compared the respondents indicated that the PNP was preferred 41.6 per cent over the JLP 38.7

In as much as I am wont to use Jamaican maxims; the black dog versus monkey expression, is offensive first of all because of the colour and truthfully, a monkey, with 90 percent of our DNA, is in fact more human than man best friend.

But to make it even more interesting, the most widely distributed large primate in Africa is the baboon. This creature shares 94 per cent of our jeans. There’s a common belief that a collection of these animals, is called a ‘congress’ or ‘parliament’. As amusing as this would be, given the behaviour of our elected officials from time to time; it is actually just a viral rumour, because being monkeys, a group of them is actually a troop.

Still, it is still an indictment on both political parties, that with the election so close, that you can smell its body odour, some 31.4 per cent of registered voters are still uncommitted. This means at least two things. First, it could be apathy because of disillusionment with it entire process. Second, and perhaps more plausibly, it is that neither party has demonstrated that it is markedly different from the other.

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Now, the uncommitted category was larger in September. At last count this moved from 37.8 to 31.4. Perhaps, now that the signals were clear that election would be this year, the electors were responding to a more message signal, rather than a hypothetical abstract date. This has translated into a 2.1 percent increase in those who indicated that they would be voting for the PNP. Yet, it cannot be overlooked that in June, the JLP was at 29.6 per cent, it has now gained 4.3 percentage points to reach 33.9 per cent. People are slowly beginning to make up their mind, and though small, more people are moving towards the JLP.

However, within the 31.4 is a substantial core of 17.1 per cent who indicated that they would not be voting.

Call it what you will. And hopefully the poll findings are not opposed because of inconvenience. Nevertheless, something has happened to push the party forward.

The JLP has gained ground in relative and absolute terms. Coming from a whopping 9 percentage point lead a year ago, this is not a simple case of the JLP gaining more support, but the PNP itself should note carefully, that the uncommitted are far less enamoured with it than its opponent.

For the PNP, the challenge is to make it unambiguously clear, that not only is it different, but it is a better alternative to the PNP. In doing so, it needs to focus on what is important to the Jamaican people and not what it’s back massaging apologists think. For the JLP, and it is certainly taking its cue seriously, and campaigning on its record. With a number of strategically placed ministerial fora, it ultimately had produced a pamphlet with its achievements.

Incumbents campaign on their record; challengers do so on promises. In a close race, is not enough to say that it is not as bad as the government; a challenger must clearly show, why voters should decamp.

The Don Anderson polls give a sliver of what matters to electors. It the JLP is returned to power, it is because despite the obvious issues, which have dogged its leader, the people do not see those issues as important as those that matter to them.

If the PNP loses this election, it is because it did not capitalise on its lead and create the distance. Its called speed endurance in athletics.

In 2015, I asked some computer Comrade friends to give me one or two main reasons, apart from the fact that they are Comrades why they were voting for their party and also what is the big difference between the political and developmental outlook of the PNP at the JLP.

Whether real or not, the JLP supporters readily run down a list of ‘achievements’.

There was a period, when there was no question as to what the identity of the PNP was. Despite its name, it became the Labour Party, the party of the working class. It was strong socialist type principles, was deeply focused on creating a society which was equitable, and which focused on protecting the vulnerable.

Voting patterns since universal adult suffrage have favoured the party which the working class fields has big interest at heart.

Anti-worker parties always lose the next election and every party that has attempted to muzzle or disrespect the press, has flopped.

Waiting to exhale.

Orville Taylor is senior lecturer at Department of Sociology at The University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com