Garth Rattray | What if Hurricane Melissa landed in Kingston?

Category 5 hurricane Melissa was described as “catastrophic” as it approached our shores, and then rapidly transformed from a tropical storm into a monstrous hurricane packing wind gusts of up to 387.85 kph (241 mph). That speed was recorded at a height of 216 m (709 feet) within its eyewall. Apparently, hurricane Melissa set a new record in that regard. All that power and rage slammed into Jamaica.

Hurricane Melissa created history when she crashed into our southwestern coast at about noon in New Hope, Westmoreland, on Tuesday, October 28, 2025. It delivered sustained winds of 297.7 kph (185 mph), torrential rains, innumerable landslides, and massive storm surges. The effect was unprecedented mayhem and destruction.

Over the period of one day, category 5 hurricanes expend the energy equivalent of 400 20-megaton hydrogen bombs exploding. During that time, the wind energy alone (without taking into consideration the cloud energy and rainfall) is about 1.5 trillion watts – approximately 31 to 36 million tons of TNT. Over their lifetime, category 5 hurricanes release the energy equivalent of 10,000 nuclear bombs. Nothing can be guaranteed to withstand that force.

The many videos now emerging, testify to the veritable annihilation of large sections in Western Jamaica. In certain areas, many people have drawn comparisons to the destruction in Gaza. Businesses, government buildings/offices, schools, churches, tourist spots, recreation areas, homes, historic buildings, farms, motor vehicles, coastlines, roadways, infrastructure, jobs, livelihoods, and lives have been lost. The tally continues as the days and weeks creep by.

KUDOS

Kudos to the government for its rapid and organised response to this catastrophe. Credit must go to our power company (the JPS), the telephone and internet providers (Flow and Digicel), and to our supplier of potable water (the NWC) for springing into action and beginning the very long and extremely arduous task of rebuilding their networks to re-establish connections as best as they can. Praise and gratitude to the local and international individuals, companies, organisations and governments that are in the process of providing disaster relief to the hundreds of thousands of affected and/or displaced Jamaicans.

Initially, when the weather phenomenon was predicted to slam into our southern coast, it might have badly impacted the capitol city and its surroundings. When it drifted westerly, we were all hoping and praying that it would keep going west and miss us entirely. But that was not to be. When it landed in Westmoreland and crossed the island as it exited near St. Ann, we in the east breathed a collective sigh of relief. Although we were spared, we could not celebrate because many of our fellow citizens were horribly impacted by the hurricane.

I can’t help wondering what would have happened if category 5 hurricane Melissa slammed into the Kingston, St. Andrew, and Portmore areas. The combined population of those areas is estimated to be between 862,491 and 882,491 people. Population figures for 2025 state that we are 2,837,077 strong. Therefore, about 31 percent of our citizens reside in Portmore and the KSA areas. That represents an extreme population density. The number of people confirmed dead from the hurricane is rising. A direct hit to this metropolitan area would have resulted in far more casualties and fatalities.

With such densely, and therefore very vulnerable populated areas, the damage to buildings, roads, utilities, and infrastructure would have been far more severe. The powerful winds and storm surge would have badly impacted Port Royal, the Norman Manley International Airport, coastal Kingston, downtown Kingston, the industrial waterfront, the refinery (leading to chronic fuel shortage), power stations (leading to extended power outages), storage facilities (leading to long-term shortages of supplies), and several residential communities. Because Portmore is relatively flat, a massive storm surge would be devastating and deadly.

BADLY DAMAGED

If our metropolis were hit, countless buildings would have been badly damaged and demolished. Because of their elevation, upper and rural St Andrew would experience destruction on a scale never before imagined or seen. There would be innumerable landslides that would destroy buildings and roads, the cutting off of utilities, the isolation of many communities, and many injuries and deaths.

Our port is an indispensable part of our ability to bring in supplies (especially essential or emergency supplies), and of our economy. According to the Internet, “the Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ) and Kingston Wharves Limited (KWL) are key players in the transshipment business”. They account for 85 per cent of the total 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) handled at the port. TEU is the standard unit of measurement for cargo capacity, based on a standard 20-foot intermodal container. Jamaica’s port sector may be earning five to 10 per cent (or more) of our GDP.

High winds and storm surges of up to 4 metres would severely damage the cranes and equipment. Stacks of containers would topple, some would fall into the sea, and their contents destroyed. The infrastructure of the port would be very hard hit and difficult to bring back online.

KSA and Portmore were spared, but we should use this horrible experience to our advantage. We need to mitigate against the annihilation of our densely populated areas, and the seat of governance and business. We need to implement robust building codes and zoning regulations (which are sometimes lacking due to corruption and unaccountability within the municipality), plan for business continuity if there is a disaster, encourage more public-private partnerships, and (in my opinion) implement decentralisation – establish business hubs across the country.

Garth Rattray is a medical doctor with a family practice, and author of ‘The Long and Short of Thick and Thin’. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and garthrattray@gmail.com