Byron Blake | COP30: A requiem for Jamaica and SIDS

With the omission of five small words, “transition away from fossil fuels”, from its final Declaration, COP30 sentenced Jamaica and other small islands and low-lying coastal states (SIDS) to an early and costly demise.

The headline out of COP28 in Dubai, 2023, was “Nearly every country in the world has agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels” – the main driver of climate change. In the words of COP28, that agreement was reached after 28 years of international climate negotiations. It was closer to 33 years as that issue was at the heart of negotiations leading up to the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio, Brazil, in 1992.

REAL DEVELOPMENTS POST-2023

There have been noteworthy developments since 2023, including:

• The breaching in 2024 of the 1.5°C ceiling agreed in Paris in 2015.

• Five Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic/Caribbean area between 2023 and 2025, with Beryl and Melissa in Jamaica setting records as arising earliest and latest in any Hurricane Season, respectively.

• The UNDP establishing that Hurricane Melissa was the result of climate change.

• Super Typhoon Uwan/Fung Wong at 185km/h on November 9, preceded by Typhoon Tino on November 4, which followed Super Typhoon Regassa in September, in the Philippines.

• Prince William, speaking on behalf of King Charles, highlighting at COP 30 that “Communities around the world are already facing rising seas, extreme heat, wildfires, floods, droughts, and increasing frequency of extreme weather”.

• The last seven years, respectively, being the hottest on record.

In the face of such realities, 80 United Nations member countries objected and forced the omission of the potentially planet-saving phrase “transition away from fossil fuels”, the rich and reckless locked on a doomsday path and pushing us, the innocent, in front.

CUNNINGLY AND CYNICALLY DESIGNED

The outcome of the Belém COP30 has been presented in terms such as

• “Landmark outcomes emerge from negotiations despite unprecedented geopolitical tensions.”

• Belém consolidates political and technical advances. It projects Brazilian leadership and inaugurates a global collective effort against climate change.

• Pictures of smiling and seemingly pleased delegates.

The deception deepens with the claim “COP30 approved a robust package of decisions that fulfilled its three core objectives: (i) strengthening multilateralism; (ii) connecting climate multilateralism to people; and (iii) accelerating the implementation of the Paris Agreement”.

If those were the three objectives of COP30, then the deception was more insidious. Caribbean and other SIDS had been encouraged since the failure of COP29 to secure firm commitment by the major emitters of greenhouse gases for plans to phase out of fossil fuels, to insist on a single focus for COP30, as a condition of their participation. That would have been a message to the host, Brazil, in setting the agenda. Instead, they fell into the trap, a multiplicity of foci.

Those objectives are peripheral and unattainable in the context of the outcome of this very COP. Take objective (iii). The key objective of the Paris Agreement was to keep increases in mean global temperatures below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The COP leaders themselves accepted at COP28 that this would not be possible if there was not “transition away from fossil fuels” – the main driver of climate change. So for them to posit two years later that decisions within a framework that omits mention of transitioning away from fossil fuels will accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement strains credulity.

COP30 provides for

• Tripling of adaptation finance.

• Launch of technology implementation programme, with a timeline and components to strengthen the priorities in developing countries.

• Launch of a two-year work programme on climate finance, focusing on the predictability of public resources from developed to developing countries.

WHAT DO THOSE PROVISIONS MEAN?

First, tripling of adaptation finance. The World Bank reports that the total contribution to the Adaptation Fund has been approximately US$2 billion. A tripling puts that at US$6 billion. The very preliminary estimates of the physical losses suffered by Jamaica from Hurricane Melissa are US$8.8 billion. Building back to withstand frequent Category 5 hurricanes, and factoring in inflation, will require at least a doubling of the current costs, or over US$17 billion, roughly three times the total adaptation fund to service all developing countries susceptible to climate-induced disasters.

Second, the developed countries have insisted that technology is the domain of the private sector. The private sector sells; it does not give. Any technology provided by the public sector of a developed country will be procured from the Adaptation Fund or other funds earmarked for developing countries.

Third, if the past 50 years are prologue, there will be no such predictable scheme - funds are provided by budget year.

Put starkly, these are shiny objects that successfully diverted attention from the existential issue - time-bound programmes and actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to levels that would cause the increase in warming to return to below 1.5°C. That objective cannot be met without phasing out fossil fuels, including for use in the military.

CRUELLEST CUT

In the early years of the climate change debate, Australia was the main defender and supporter of the small and most vulnerable islands of the Pacific. Australia had the opportunity to host COP31 in collaboration with the Pacific islands. That would rebuild its credibility on climate action and support Pacific island nations on the frontline of the climate crisis. Australia surrendered the opportunity to Turkey, a top-ranking coal producer. A large fossil fuel producer or OPEC member will have hosted every COP since 2018 except for Spain in 2019.

LAST WORDS

Melissa destroyed thousands of permanent trees across the western half of Jamaica. With more frequent Category 5 storms, will our grandchildren ever see or enjoy the fruits of such magnificent trees?

Ambassador Byron Blake is former deputy permanent representative of Jamaica to the United Nations and former assistant secretary general of CARICOM. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com