Commentary March 22 2026

Garth Rattray | Inhibitions to being fruitful and multiply – Part 3

4 min read

Loading article...

Red flags concerning our plummeting total fertility rate (TFR) are being waved by many experts. The media reported that, “Prime Minister Andrew Holness recently indicated that with 21,000 deaths and 21,000 migrations, the declining birth rate is creating a “serious problem” for national sustainability”.

The Jamaica Observer quoting former public servant Mr. Reginald Budhan wrote: “We have a problem now. The human resource of a country is its greatest asset. We had about 52,000 births last year, about 21,000 migrations and about 20,000 deaths; we have a serious problem…for us to be viable and sustainable and achieve a higher level of per capita income and standard of living, we must maintain a higher birth rate; that’s the only way we can compensate for the constant migration, failing which we will never be able to have the human resource or the quality because 80 per cent of those that migrate are our most educated.”

Mr. Budhan further noted, “If this continues Jamaica will never achieve its Vision 2030 goal. It will remain a dream, and we will move it from 2030, to 2040, to 2050, we have a serious problem.” The newspaper also published an ominous warning. “Experts speaking at a forum titled ‘Sustainable Replacement Population: Protecting your Fertility’ in Jamaica, say the issue is a “problem” and calls for urgent action.”

A representative of the medical fraternity has added his voice to the clarion call regarding our moribund TFR, Dr. Garth McDonald, senior medical officer (SMO) at Victoria Jubilee Hospital, said “We have to look at the flip side. What about those women who want to have children, can’t have children and what are we doing to create incentives [as well as] investigate the problems which exist with infertility.”

The need to tackle infertility in Jamaica was also emphasised by other healthcare experts. Additionally, Dr McDonald also explained that “… the expenses associated with having a child and the current cost of living crisis could be a contributing factor which is putting women off from having children.”

REACTIONARY EXTREMISM

Sadly, various administrations practice reactionary extremism. They only intervene when the TFR is too high, and when the TFR is too low. Unfortunately, the interventions have nothing to do with the wellbeing of individual children, individual mothers, or individual families. The interventions are all about the national good. They don’t realise that, if they focus on the individuals within society, they will be taking care of the entire society.

When it comes to the low birth rate impacting the available human resources of a country, the term ‘total fertility rate’ is a misnomer. In actuality, it is the ‘total reproduction rate’. The word ‘fertility’ speaks to the biological ability to reproduce. But the low population replacement rate being experienced is not a biological problem, it is a socioeconomic problem. People simply cannot afford to reproduce as they once did.

Political systems tend to see citizens mainly as available labour and votes. This is more so when it comes to the poor who are often kept oppressed, dependent and [sometimes] barely able to eke out a living. The economic system uses them as the bedrock to earn income, which is rapidly used up in supporting the more fortunate. The real income earners are left with pennies. The system only takes notice of the poor when it is politically expedient to do so or whenever they run afoul of the law. Otherwise, they are on their own, and they know it.

Encouraging people to [literally] simply ‘go forth and multiply, is as counterintuitive as leaning on your horn to ‘encourage’ someone to fly out into oncoming traffic because it will serve your purpose. Flying out into oncoming traffic will be tantamount to suicide for that driver, unless the way is made clear. We should never ask or encourage our citizens to have children unless and until we can similarly ‘make the way clear’.

FUNDAMENTAL NEEDS

If we want women to produce children, our society should see to their fundamental needs. We need to create more job opportunities, so that young women might have economic security. This way, more of them will be able to afford our high cost of living while remaining self-sufficient. We must also use social media and time allocated for government broadcast to emphasise the need for responsible men and responsible fathers. Most women [rightfully] feel that they will not have the support of their partner in taking care of and raising a child.

I am still trying to understand why the National Housing Trust (NHT) is not offering more very low cost, and even free housing units to citizens who need a roof over their head. This should be a regular part of the NHT function, and not just the handing over of the occasional units that we see being given out by politicians. Judging from how often it has been raided of billions of dollars, the NHT is obviously capable of providing more housing security to far more Jamaicans.

I am aware that the government has [to some extent] made available opportunities for the personal and career development of our youths. However, this is a passive offering. If we really want to uplift the status of our people so that they will feel incentivised to have children, this needs to be active recruitment. Additionally, we must increase our social safety nets so that women will feel better about their future and the future of their children.

Garth Rattray is a medical doctor with a family practice, and author of ‘The Long and Short of Thick and Thin’. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and garthrattray@gmail.com.