Gordon Robinson | Flash, bang, wallop!

By now everybody knows I’ve no use for political polls.

Elsewhere they’re unreliable at best but, in Jamaica, they’re as useful as a handbrake on a canoe. Polls’ most hilarious aspect is the published margins of “error” which are usually about plus or minus three per cent.

Plus? Or Minus?

Why won’t pollsters, or anybody else with a smattering of maths background, explain what that actually means? Let me try. If a poll has a “margin of error” of plus or minus 3 per cent this means EVERY number coughed up by that study is subject to this dual “margin”.

Take the latest Panderson Poll for example. It proposed that, if an election was held in early June, 32.6 per cent of the popular vote would be cast for PNP. Based on Pollsters’ choice crutch (“margin of error”) this number could, in actuality, fall anywhere between 35.6 per cent (+3) and 29.6 per cent (-3). That same Poll recorded a 29.6 per cent JLP vote. So, again, plus or minus 3 per cent, that actual vote could fall anywhere between 32.6 per cent and 26.6 per cent.

Watchya now: A Poll that we are told shows a 3 per cent PNP lead (32.6 per cent to 29.6 per cent) could actually end up also revealing a 3 per cent JLP lead (JLP 32.6 per cent; PNP 29.6 per cent). So what the Poll REALLY says is PNP could win by 3 per cent and JLP could also win by 3 per cent. Or anywhere in between…. And Pollster Panderson could claim “I wuz right!”

If Polls are snapshots the photographer must have his finger over the lens.

All lined up in a wedding group

here we are for a photograph.

We’re all dressed up in a morning suit

all trying not to laugh.

Since the early caveman in his fur

took a trip to Gretna Green

there’s always been a photographer

to record the ’appy scene.

’old it, flash, bang, wallop, what a picture;

what a picture; what a photograph!

Poor old soul, blimey, what a joke,

hat blown off in a cloud of smoke

So why am I picking on Panderson? Allrighty, if you don’t want to take his numbers as proof we shouldn’t read political polls, let’s look at Blue Dolt’s recent results. It’s going to be difficult to recall this so I’ll remind you both national pollsters are polling the same electorate (two million) in the same Country. So, how come Blue Dolt party standings are so diametrically different from Panderson Poll results?

According to Blue Dolt, in mid-May, JLP (35 per cent) was ahead of PNP (31 per cent).

So Panderson has JLP at 29.6 per cent while Blue Dolt, polling the same small electorate, has JLP at 5.4 per cent more. Blue Dolt’s “margin of error” is plus or minus 2.75 per cent so, according to its particular brand of fuzzy maths, JLP could end up anywhere from 32.25 per cent to 37.75 per cent. That same Blue Dolt Poll had PNP at 31 per cent which, again applying the “margin of error” artifice, means their result could fall anywhere between 28.25 per cent and 34.75 per cent.

So, on Blue Dolt’s numbers, the election could go to JLP 35-31 per cent or to PNP 34.75-32.25 per cent. Or a myriad of other margins of victory for either Party!

Need I say anything more?

But you know I will. The results of both national polls are so internally and comparatively diverse; so internally and comparatively contradictory; that they aren’t worth the paper on which they’re written. Only cognitively impaired sycophants should have time for them.

Or, as I keep saying, Polls Schmolls!

King ’Enry the Eighth had several wives

including Anne Boleyn

and he kept an album of their lives

with all their photos in.

As Anne Boleyn was on her knees,

dressed in her very best frock,

King ’Enry shouted ‘Smile, Dear, please’

As ’er ’ead rolled off the block!

’old it, flash, bang, wallop, what a picture,

what a picture, what a photograph.

Comes the print in a little while

Lost ‘er ’ead, but she kept ’er smile.

But, hush, this isn’t just a Jamaican problem. The 2024 USA elections were predicted by all the traditional pollsters, including Gallup and CNN, to be a dead heat at 47 per cent each. At least USA Polls produced consistent findings. So, based on those Poll results, somehow, liberal broadcast “journalists” like Rachel Maddow, Joy Reid and Chris Hayes worked themselves into fits of ecstasy expecting a Kamala romp.

But Trump won the Electoral College by a landslide (312-226; 58 per cent to 42 per cent) and the popular vote by more than two million (48.5 per cent). At one stage it looked like being much wider but late counted California votes, which Kamala won by 3.2 million, saved her face. Outside of California, Trump won 52 per cent of the popular vote.

One more picture – hold it: Polls Schmolls!

The same thing happened long ago

when man was in his prime.

And what went on we only know

from the snaps he took at the time.

When Adam and Eve in their birthday suit

decided to get wed,

as Adam was about to taste the fruit,

the man with the camera said......

’old it, flash, bang, wallop, what a picture,

what a picture, what a photograph.

Poor old Eve, there with nothing on

face all red and her fig leaf gone.

Half a Sixpence was a big, booming musical hit first staged in 1963 based on H.G. Wells’ book, Kipps, and set in the English seaside resort of Folkestone in the year 1900. Arthur Kipps, an orphan, played by British stage favourite Tommy Steele, works and lives as an apprentice draper while childhood sweetheart, Ann, is in domestic service. They don’t see each other often so Kipps believes a lovers’ token (two half sixpences one kept by each) will help. It’s a heartwarming story of romance’s ups and downs culminating with their wedding to the song Flash, Bang Wallop (Music and lyrics by David Heneker) sung by Tommy and the ensemble cast. The song is a nostalgic journey to a time before pollsters took snapshots of political happenings and before photos were taken influenced by today’s obsession with magic rectangles.

It was an enchanting time when choreographers ruled theatre and cinema. I recommend all performing arts practitioners and fans have a look see at a video of the original stage production (choreographed by Onna White And Tom Panko) at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KCP0-XfbyRU

Every time a pollster goes “flash, bang wallop” and produces a political snapshot the political world stands still. But every election is won at polling stations on the day. In a country where only 35 per cent of the electorate is certain to vote; 95 per cent of that 35 per cent have essentially already cast their votes and are only waiting for JLP/PNP’s taxi to pick them up on E-Day; polls are irrelevant. It’s all about who can afford to hire help and whose managerial skills organize the help more efficiently.

Political noise currently dominating social media, traditional airwaves and roadside gatherings is unnecessary, annoying and unproductive. I learned that lesson in 1980. At a massive political rally in Sam Sharpe Square Michael Manley triumphantly declared: “One hundred thousand strong can’t be wrong!”

Oopsie. PNP ended up with more than 100,000 votes (350,064 to be exact) in October 1980. Unfortunately for PNP that was only 40.67 per cent of all votes cast. JLP won by a crushing landslide with 502,115 votes.

As I said to Old BC while we were watching Kamala’s vast turnout of over 30,000 at a rally in Houston featuring Beyonce and others “I’m pretty sure the 30,000 there should vote for her. But there are many more than 30,000 voters in Texas and they’ll punish her for shoving all this female blackness in their faces.”

So said, so done!

On Election Day 2025, when the noise has died down, it’ll be Dayton and Peter versus Horace and Daryl. The better organizers will win.

So I don’t pay any attention to Polls. But, if I did, the latest Panderson Poll would only be support of my lobby for radical Constitutional Reform resulting in strict Separation of Powers. According to Panderson, Andrew Holness would win a direct election for PM by a mile but PNP would win the election (well, popular vote anyway) narrowly via Westminster’s electoral system.

Should this turn out correct, it would be the first time in recorded history that candidates carried a Party Leader to Jamaica House. Traditionally Party Leader’s coattails tend to carry candidates over the line in marginal or swing constituencies. If this isn’t proof the system is cockeyed then what is it?

Peace and Love.

Gordon Robinson is an attorney-at-law. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com