Tying down the election date
Published:Sunday | July 6, 2025 | 12:09 AMErica Virtue - Senior Sunday Gleaner Writer
In Jamaica, where general election dates aren’t fixed by law, as the Holness administration closes in on its fifth anniversary since its 2020 re-election, it’s almost time for Jamaica’s to be summoned back to the polls. And according to political observers, that timing is a strategic weapon wielded almost solely by the prime minister.
While party machinery plays a role, it is ultimately the prime minister – often also the party leader – who pulls the trigger. The final decision on an election date is made at the very top, even though the general secretary’s reports and gut checks help shape the call. That’s the inside view from Derrick Smith, a veteran Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) statesman who served as deputy leader and member of parliament until 2017.
He told The Sunday Gleaner that he was part of two administrations when the leader decided the election date – in 1989 under Edward Seaga, and in 2011 with Andrew Holness post Bruce Golding.
“A leader would take into consideration some known factors such as natural disasters; times when schools are in session as elections depend heavily on schools; and the party’s finances. A party has to have money to run election,” he said bluntly, stressing that the call isn’t made in a vacuum.
Symbolic dates like anniversaries might be tossed around, but Smith said they rarely carry much weight.
“Sometimes they also look at anniversaries as it can be used as part of a celebration, but the date would not necessarily be influenced by it, but still being part of the mix,” he said.
According to him, the party leader, relies heavily on the general secretary before setting the date.
“He would consult with the general secretary who is the person in charge of the national organisation. He or she has responsibility to make sure that candidates are in place.
Behind-the-scenes player
The general secretary, he added, is a crucial behind-the-scenes player.
The general secretary is the leader’s right hand, Smith reasoned, “the person who knows where the party stands on the ground. They may not know the exact date, but they can often read the leader’s mind.”
That experience resonates with Peter Bunting, former general secretary of the People’s National Party (PNP) during Portia Simpson Miller’s 2012-2016 administration following the late-December 2011 victory at the polls.
Readiness was everything, Bunting told The Sunday Gleaner. From candidate selection, constituency strength, campaign messaging – the general secretary is in charge of making sure the political engine is running, he said.
“Having all candidates in place and functioning – especially the candidates in the constituencies that you are relying on to win the majority” is key, Bunting added.
Constant monitoring of their performance and polling – more so constituency level surveys than national ones – provide useful guides.
“Because at the end of the day, it’s not the popular vote that’s going to determine it. And so you’re balancing all the factors. Is your communication team ready? If you’re advertising and having promotions or whatever your thing is, the general secretary must advise the leader on those grounds,” Bunting said.
Opposition parties, Bunting added, face steeper challenges.
“For the party in power, finance is usually less of a constraint for them than an opposition party. So they, you know, have all the advantages of incumbency.”
With another general election due within a few months, all eyes are now on Prime Minister (PM) Dr Andrew Holness, the leader of the ruling JLP.
PM should do a careful ASSESSMENT
Political analyst Dr Damion Gordon from The University of the West Indies, Mona, said several high-stakes factors will influence his decision.
“The PM should do a careful assessment of the internal and external macroeconomic environment. The goal here is to anticipate whether the expected or probable shifts in the near future will adversely or positively impact the economic well-being of Jamaicans,” Gordon told The Sunday Gleaner.
But there’s one unpredictable factor that may loom larger than all the rest: the weather. According to Gordon, given last year’s early entry of Hurricane Beryl, the season could loom large.
“A severe weather event could devastate infrastructure and destabilise the economy. Last year’s hurricane season was especially brutal. To mitigate that risk, the PM might want to take advantage of the earlier months in the period when less severe weather events are expected,” said Gordon.
Of great importance to Holness, Gordon notes, “is to find a way to maximise voter turnout, especially among young voters.
“To this end, I think he should consider a date that coincides with the summer break. There will be less disruption to the public school system and most university students would have returned to their constituencies. Calling the election upon the resumption of school (post-August) could be problematic since the return of some rural-based university students to Kingston might reduce their enthusiasm to return to their constituencies to vote,” he posited.
Ultimately, Gordon said, Holness will be watching polling trends closely.
“This is to determine if the trends are pointing to an improving , static or worsening position for the Government. This would help him to better assess the potential risks of calling the election soon or delaying it.”