What’s at stake

The coming general election is Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness’ bid to seal his place in Jamaica’s political history and Mark Golding’s “one shot at glory”, according to analysts.

At 53, Holness, the career politician who became Jamaica’s youngest prime minister in October 2011, is chasing two political records – one within his party and one nationally.

Victory in the September 3 contest would make him the first JLP leader to win three consecutive general elections and place him alongside former Prime Minister P.J. Patterson of the PNP, who led the country from 1992 to 2006. It would also bring Holness closer to Patterson’s record as the longest-serving head of government.

Public affairs commentator Howard Mitchell says the election is about Holness cementing his legacy.

“It’s about sealing his legacy … bringing to a high point his implementation of a philosophy … of economic prosperity for the country and for infrastructural and structural improvement, and for economic stability,” Mitchell told The Gleaner. “If he loses it, he will be remembered as someone who tried but didn’t make it … history does not favour losers.”

However, Holness is not entering the race without shadows. In an unprecedented moment for a Jamaican prime minister, the Integrity Commission investigated him for the alleged offence of illicit enrichment relating to his 2021 income filings.

While the probe ended inconclusively and was referred to another law enforcement body, Holness has mounted a legal challenge, accusing the commission of unfairness. He is also seeking to strike down both the illicit enrichment offence under the Corruption Prevention Act and the Integrity Commission Act, legislation passed under his own administration. He has repeatedly denied wrongdoing.

During a recent JLP meeting in St Andrew East Rural – the constituency represented by his wife, House Speaker Juliet Holness – the prime minister insisted his record was clean.

“I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I don’t know what a gold spoon looks like, it has never been in my mouth. I have no inheritance or any endowment or any trust fund anywhere. Whatever I have I’ve worked hard and honestly for it,” Holness declared.

The JLP’s campaign slogan, ‘Choose Jamaica’, is built around touting macroeconomic stability, a significant year-on-year reduction in murders of over 40 per cent, a 3.3 per cent unemployment rate, poverty cuts, and no new taxes for most of his tenure.

Looking ahead, he has pledged a focus on the local economy, promising communities “your own prosperity” by fairly distributing “dividends” from national growth.

Mitchell warned that the fight with the Integrity Commission, more than other things, will also help to shape Holness’ legacy, even if does not move voters in the upcoming polls.

“So, I am sure that many of the dark clouds that surround him in relation to the aspect of his credibility and his financial dealings, that if he loses the election, it will be a lot more difficult for him to fight off those allegations. So a lot is at stake in that sense.”

However, Mitchell believes Holness’ leadership of the JLP is secure regardless of the outcome, citing the party’s tradition of sticking with leaders.

“You can argue that because the Labour Party has become almost a one-man show, that anything that happens to him would damage the party irrevocably. But, so far, he has managed not to have things happen to him. So I don’t think his leadership is at stake,” he said.

‘Turning point’

Former National Security Minister and long-time JLP strategist Derrick Smith is confident Holness will secure an unprecedented third consecutive win for the party.

“He has done as much or more than any previous Jamaican Labour Party prime minister. He has stabilised the economy, excelled in infrastructural development, and taken this nation through an extremely difficult period during COVID.

Smith is predicting that the JLP will win “between 38 and 40 seats”. The party is defending the 49 it won in 2020 to the PNP’s 14.

He argued that Holness’ loss in the 2011 general election was the turning point in his political maturation, following several “mistakes” that cut short his premiership. He said Holness “sold the future of Jamaica” at a massive Mandeville meeting in a way that “did not help the cause” in that year’s general election.

“People didn’t understand him, didn’t know him very well … . He was, at that time, a very young man,” Smith recalled. “Having suffered that loss, he now understands his responsibility for all Jamaica – to move this young nation forward. The succeeding terms in 2016 and 2020, Dr Holness has done an outstanding job.”

For Golding, the road to this election has been shorter, but perhaps steeper.

The 60-year-old lawyer, investment banker, and former justice minister, entered politics in 2007.

He became PNP president in November 2020 after the party’s crushing defeat two months earlier, leaving then leader Dr Peter Phillips as the first PNP president not to serve as prime minister since Independence. Prior to Independence, Norman Manley served as premier.

Golding inherited a party fractured by years of bitter internal contests, from the 2006-2007 leadership battles won by Portia Simpson Miller to the 2019 showdown between Peter Bunting and Phillips. As a close Bunting ally, Golding’s ascension was questioned internally, especially by those who felt the 2019 challenge sealed the defeat that eventually came in 2020.

Since then, he has worked to heal divisions, scoring a strong performance in the 2024 local government elections and avoiding the high-profile internal skirmishes that plagued his predecessors, noted Maxine Henry Wilson, a former PNP general secretary and education minister.

She says Golding “has become a very credible leader” and deserves credit for consolidating the party’s gains in the parish elections, even as opinion polls show the party’s lead over the JLP falling from more than nine points in September 2024 to just over three points in June.

However, in a general election, credibility is tested at the polls.

“This is his one shot at glory,” Mitchell said. “If he loses, there will be a contest, and he may very well not be able to sustain that contest.”

Potential challengers

Unlike Holness, Mitchell contended that Golding’s leadership could be on the line if he falls short, with party heavyweights like Philip Paulwell and Damion Crawford seen as potential challengers.

“Mark’s future as leader of the PNP is more at stake, certainly more at stake than Andrew’s.”

Like Holness, Golding has also had to fight off personal political attacks.

In 2024, under pressure, he revealed he was a dual Jamaican and British citizen – a status permitted under the Constitution. But his move to renounce his British citizenship suggests political risks he wished to avoid in the race to lead Jamaica.

His business history, including the rise of investment house Dehring, Bunting and Golding during the turbulent 1990s financial crisis, has also been revisited by critics.

Seeking to turn integrity debates in his favour, Golding has positioned himself as a leader with “clean hands and a clean heart”, and accused the Holness’ administration of presiding over corruption, broken promises, and economic stagnation.

“Our country is at a crossroads … . The JLP path is not working for most Jamaicans. Cost of living is crushing families, corruption is running wild in government … members of parliament and ministers are enriching themselves,” he said at a rally in St Mary on August 3. “This country, our Jamaica, is not a personal slush fund for politicians. Public resources … exist to serve the people.”

Henry Wilson argues that for Golding, victory is about more than the party.

“It is very important that he goes in with a clear mandate, both for internal reasons … as well as for the country,” she said, emphasising the need for inclusive governance and principled leadership.

“It’s a high-stakes election,” she said, before acknowledging that Holness has “a sort of legacy that he not only would protect, but that also would have historic value in determining his national contribution”.

Credibility on the line

By contrast, Golding lacks that record, and a defeat could be damaging, Henry Wilson said.

“This is the first election that he’s running as leader, and so it is very important for him to perform and to be victorious in terms of his own credibility as leader,” she said.

Recent polling underscores just how much is at stake in the coming election for both leaders.

In the May-June 2025 RJRGLEANER-commissioned Don Anderson poll, Holness held a 7.5-point favourability lead over Opposition Leader Mark Golding of the PNP, with ratings of 37.6 per cent to 30.1 per cent.

Pollster Don Anderson noted that across three recent surveys – April 2024, June 2024, and the latest – Holness topped two, peaking at 40 per cent in April 2024, while Golding’s highest was 37 per cent in the same poll.

Holness led by three points then, but both leaders saw ratings fall in June 2024, with Golding edging ahead for the first time by 1.2 points. The survey also found that 30.4 per cent of respondents had a negative view of Holness, compared to 22.7 per cent viewing Golding unfavourably.

The latest figures represent a partial rebound for Holness from a steep decline recorded in September 2021, when a similar poll showed his approval rating had slid to 42 per cent – down by more than a third from the 65 per cent peak he enjoyed in July 2020. Up to September 2023, Golding’s positive favourability rating had not topped 15 per cent.

jovan.johnson@gleanerjm.com