Holness’ pull, Bunting’s push

In the winding, rugged hills and coastal stretches of Manchester Southern, voters are weighing hope against disillusionment.

On September 3, they will decide between returning to their People’s National Party (PNP) roots or extending the governing Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) historic 2020 breakthrough in the sprawling rural constituency that stretches from the border town of Porus, where abandoned railway tracks whisper of a bygone era, to the fishing beach at Alligator Pond on the other.

The JLP’s 2020 victory via Robert Chin was a seismic shift, breaking the PNP’s hold and giving the party its first win in the constituency for more than three decades. But his tenure has left many disillusioned, including JLP supporters.

In a bid to shore up its chances, the JLP has replaced Chin with businessman Ian Ives, following an internal vote in March.

The PNP, viewing the seat as critical to its path back to power, has fielded Peter Bunting, a one-time aspirant for party president and former cabinet minister, who is seeking a House return after losing his seat in the neighbouring Manchester Central in 2020.

All that has set the stage for a political drama where the performance of a “missing” member of parliament (MP), the reputation of a returning political heavyweight, and the popularity of Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness appear set to collide.

Robert Gordon, a 60-year-old fish vendor and staunch JLP supporter from Alligator Pond, did not mince words last Tuesday, acknowledging that Chin’s performance could cost the party votes.

“That’s why we moved Robert Chin from here,” he stated. “Robert promise a lot of promise and don’t fulfil it. Him plan seh him a go fix up people place, him plan seh him a go fix up road and him don’t do anything.”

In Pusey Hill, Sheldon Williams, a 34-year-old mechanical engineer, noted that the local JLP councillor, Iceval ‘Cherry’ Brown, was far more present.

“She’s more outstanding than the MP, which was Robert Chin,” Williams said. “Robert Chin, we not even see him”.

Orane Joseph, a construction worker in Redberry, who ardently supports the PNP, readily agreed that Chin was a failure, adding that he didn’t know the former MP at all.

In the Newport division, 73-year-old Hubert Brooks offered a searing critique, suggesting Chin followed the non-performing legacy of past representatives.

“Him work but him nuh work inna dis yah part of Manchester, Newport,” Brooks said. “It look like him did tek di footsteps of the followers dem weh did deh before him.”

UNFAMILIAR CANDIDATE

But even with Chin out, the JLP has to contend with a situation where the new representative appears to be a mystery to many of the voters who will be asked to elect him.

“The man weh dem seh a run ‘round yah, me nuh even know him,” said Clinton Fuller, a 57-year-old farmer from Resource, laughing as he noted he only heard about a recent community meeting when it was nearly over.

Joseph from Redberry was more critical, connecting the candidate’s appearance with the impending election.

“Him nuh come ‘round yah come visit wi,” he said of Ives. “Mi nuh know him. And me deh in the district almost every day and me never see dat man till couple months ago till the road start fi fix. A tru elections a come up now.”

Despite the unfamiliarity with their new candidate, many JLP supporters have anchored their loyalty not to the local representative but to the party’s leader, Prime Minister Holness. For them, the election is a national referendum, and Ives is simply a means to an end.

Fuller, a farmer of sweet pepper and watermelon, who was using a wheelbarrow to transport water to a drum to prepare to plant pumpkins in Cocoa Walk, is a prime example. Bauxite mining and agriculture, alongside fishing on the coast, are the main income-earning opportunities for residents.

Though Fuller admits water is “the main problem”, his support for the administration is unwavering.

“It’s not really the MP, but me support Andrew Holness,” he said, citing national infrastructure projects and economic improvements as his motivation. He confirmed he will vote for the unknown Ives solely in a bid to keep Holness in power.

Hubert Brooks in Newport shared similar sentiments.

“Andrew a gwaan good, so you caan just tek one fat and fry the other,” he reasoned, expressing his plan to vote for Ives to secure a third term for the prime minister.

Clayton Brooks, a 41-year-old shoemaker in Pusey Hill, also points to the Holness Government’s national projects as his reason for voting JLP. “There are some highways and roads and some structures that wasn’t here and I like them. And they let the country look so good and all of that,” he told The Sunday Gleaner.

Some are willing to give Ives a chance based on early impressions.

Sheldon Williams said that unlike Chin, Ives “always comes around now and then and shows up himself”.

JLP stalwart Robert Gordon is already convinced.

“This man, Mr Ives weh yuh hearing about, this man is a good man ‘cause this man tek him money spend already and him nuh go inna it yet,” he reasoned.

GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY

For the PNP, the JLP’s local troubles present a golden opportunity to reclaim political power in the constituency.

In Alligator Pond, a coastal community where some residents lament neglect, two women say they are willing to give Bunting a chance.

“[With this] Government, it come like we nuh deh pon di map,” said a resident, V.G., who requested her initials be used. She claimed PNP councillor, Omar Robinson, is being “sabotaged” by the JLP administration and gets no resources.

For her, a vote for Bunting is a vote to empower Robinson.

“Of course, me have to support Bunting,” she stated. “Because me want see the difference if the councillor a go get supm so that him can help wi.”

Another resident, C.H., praised the councillor’s work in sports, employment, and education. They are willing to take a chance on Bunting, framing it as a practical choice, not a partisan one.

“We just wah give him (Bunting) a try. If him nuh do good, then we ditch him out again. We nah vote fi colour,” she said under a shade, where the strong breeze off the coast triggered memories of Hurricane Beryl skirting the country’s southern coast in July last year.

V.G. recounted how after devastation from Beryl, storm aid was allegedly distributed only to JLP supporters.

“People weh lose things nuh get nothing yah because dem vote PNP,” she said angrily. “Storm a nuh PNP or Labourite. Storm a natural disaster. That’s why I cannot go fi dat Government”.

Gordon, who walked on after the discussion, defended the Holness administration even as he acknowledged that more could have been done. He said charity groups linked to “Labourites” built six houses locally and Ives, if elected, would expand the support to people of the fishing community.

It isn’t smooth sailing for 64-year-old Bunting, either, as some constituents have cast him as a political reject seeking refuge.

“Yuh tink if him did a gwaan good dem would a run him from up so (Manchester Central)? Dem wouldn’t vote him out,” argued Clinton Fuller.

Hubert Brooks in Newport dismissed Bunting, saying, “Dem run from Central and him come a South a look shelter, but me nuh tink him a guh get it ‘round yah”.

But C.H. has pushed back on this narrative.

“We will take the reject,” she declared. “Since as Alligator Pond is not on the map, we will take Bunting weh dem call ‘reject’.”

“The only reject we nuh want a di ole bus dem,” she added, referring to the used buses bought by the Government for the rural school transportation system. Bunting has been critical of the quality of buses.

Joseph is firmly in Bunting’s camp, noting that Chin did not use his tenure well to sell the JLP’s message of prosperity.

“Peter Bunting a the general, man,” he said noting that under previous PNP leadership, he saw progress in roads and water supply.

Over in the community of Harmons, a debate on a construction site turned fiery over recent racial jabs in the JLP’s campaign against PNP President. Mark Golding. It followed after one of the workers, G. Boyd, 62, said while he has been a supporter of the PNP, he is not certain about voting in the upcoming polls.

“Bwoy, me ... me nuh mek up mi mind. Me a PNP, … [but] if mi heartwood did dye, me wouldn’t deh yah so now,” he said, to which another Comrade responded: “Not even work mi nuh get, you know. So mi seh mi nuh bizniz who wah win. Mi haffi find my work.”

Buddu, a JLP supporter, taunted Barrington Hanniford: “So, Mark Golding a go win? The white man a go win?”

Hanniford snapped back: “Who unnu call white man? Call yuhself a white man. We a white people to, eno, cuz white people … with our people inna slavery and get wi.”

MOSTLY WON BY PNP

The constituency is steeped in PNP history, being among the five that the party won out of 32 seats contested in the first general election of 1944. Of the 18 parliamentary polls, the PNP has won it 13 times to the JLP’s five. The longest unbroken reign was for 31 years until 2020, when Chin unseated the PNP’s Michael Stewart. Before that, the JLP last held the seat 1980-89 through the late Arthur Williams Sr.

But despite the PNP’s dominance, voting data from the Electoral Commission of Jamaica revealed subtle shifts in Manchester Southern. In 2002, the PNP held a commanding lead of more than 2,400 votes (PNP 8,088 to JLP 5,656). That dominance steadily narrowed over successive elections. By 2007, the PNP still maintained a cushion – 8,290 to the JLP’s 7,455 – but the margin had shrunk to 835.

In 2011, the PNP topped its majority from 2002, securing 9,563 votes to the JLP’s 7,036 – a majority of more than 2,500. But by 2016, the tide shifted again. The JLP polled 7,222 to the PNP’s 8,398, leaving the PNP with a 1,176-vote cushion.

The real watershed came in 2020 when Chin clinched the so-called PNP safe seat, winning 6,826 votes for the JLP to the PNP’s 5,936 – a margin of 890. Crucially, while the JLP’s raw vote count was lower than in previous years, the PNP collapsed from 8,398 in 2016 to under 6,000 in 2020.

At the division level, the story is mixed. Grove Town remains a JLP stronghold, often delivering the party’s largest margins. Newport has long been a PNP bastion. Porus swings JLP in local government contests but votes PNP in general elections, while Alligator Pond remains competitive, though it trends PNP.

jovan.johnson@gleanrjm.com