Tourism bubble
Caribbean faces risk from economic slowdown in US
Published:Thursday | October 2, 2025 | 12:11 AMJanet Silvera/Gleaner Writer
Bridgetown, Barbados:
Barbados’ Minister of Tourism Ian Gooding-Edghill yesterday told attendees at the opening of the 2025 State of the Tourism Industry Conference (SOTIC), in Bridgetown, that the Caribbean’s record-breaking tourism rebound could be at risk if the United States’ (US) economy slows down.
Just months ago, the region was celebrating a historic milestone: over 34 million stayover visitors in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic highs. Cruise arrivals were also on the rise, with a projected seven per cent increase in scheduled calls across the Caribbean in 2025.
However, Edghill struck a more cautious tone at the Hilton Barbados podium, saying what is happening in the US could negatively affect the region.
“A potential dip in the US market is a particularly acute risk,” Edghill warned. “A sharper-than-expected slowdown in US growth would significantly reduce demand for goods and services. This affects not only tourism arrivals, but also remittance flows, which constitute about 20 per cent of GDP for some economies in the region.”
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The US remains the Caribbean’s largest source market, particularly for islands like Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, the Cayman Islands and The Bahamas. Airlines have recently expanded their routes to secondary hubs and emerging destinations across the region, increasing airlift by five per cent, compared to 2024. But that momentum could stall.
The speech highlighted a hard truth beneath the optimism: tourism is both the engine and the Achilles’ heel of many Caribbean economies.
“Recovery is not enough,” said Edghill. “Growth alone is not a strategy.”
The minister’s comments reflect growing concerns that the region’s economic fortunes are too tightly tethered to external markets. While tourism has provided jobs, foreign exchange, and investment, it also leaves many countries exposed to global shocks, whether they stem from economic instability, climate change, or geopolitical tensions.
Edghill listed several other headwinds facing the region: inflation in construction costs for vital infrastructure, growing uncertainty tied to geopolitical tensions in the Caribbean Sea, and the mounting pressure of climate-related disruptions.
However, perhaps the most urgent concern is complacency. With glowing arrival numbers and strong cruise traffic, there is a risk of celebrating the comeback while ignoring its fragility.
His remarks echo a broader call emerging across the region: diversify or risk decline. That means deepening tourism’s linkages to other sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, education, and the creative industries, and ensuring that the benefits of the industry reach local communities more equitably.
The minister’s address was part of a wider push to reimagine Caribbean tourism, not just as an economic driver, but as a force for inclusive, sustainable growth.
“Visitors are not just buying a vacation. They’re buying a state of peaceful sanctuary,” he said. “We must market that proactively.”
As the conference continues, leaders will discuss not just how to attract more visitors, but how to build a more resilient industry that can weather whatever economic storm may lie ahead, especially if the US market, the region’s biggest customer, begins to pull back.