Earth Today | Alarm bells ring as climate departure closes in
Published:Thursday | August 3, 2023 | 12:06 AM
AS MANY suffer under the sweltering heat associated with record temperatures, alarm bells for climate departure appear to ring louder – never mind that it will be a few years yet before confirmation comes that cities such as Kingston have reached the point at which their hottest year on record has become their average year.
A 2013 study out of the University of Hawaii projected that Kingston, for example, would reach climate departure in 2023. Speaking with The Gleaner yesterday on the research paper, renowned climate scientist Prof Michael Taylor explained that while confirmation is to come, the time is now to take note and respond appropriately.
“There are a couple of things you want to recognise from the paper. To ascertain whether you have reached climate departure would take a couple of years because of the way it is defined: you reach climate departure when every year after is warmer than the coolest year you experienced over a particular period,” he said.
“So the only way we will know for sure is over the next couple of years. That does not say, however, that we are not flirting with or achieving unprecedented temperatures this year, and may even be at that climate departure,” he added.
According to Taylor, the reality is such that some urgent actions are required.
“We pay attention to climate departure because what it was alluding to is that you will see more and more unprecedented climate play out from that point forward; and certainly, if you use this year, for example, we are seeing records being broken. And some of the records being broken, we thought we would not have seen them broken for another couple of years to come, based on the science,” he said.
Those records, Taylor noted, include how hot it becomes in a single day or night; as well as the number of consecutive hot days that are experienced.
“This year, for a couple of days, global temperatures went beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius and that is significant. It means we are moving to a new level around which we are varying. So it is to be taken with absolutely seriousness,” he warned.
Taking things seriously, the scientist explained, includes making the required investment in scientific research, which helps to create the enabling environment for responsive rather than reactive interventions to address the varied impacts of climate change – from extreme hurricanes and droughts that have been a particular problem for Caribbean small island developing states, to rising seas and costal erosion, among other things.
“I would like to see support for the research so we know what is happening, because our responses have to be data-driven and comprehensive,” Taylor maintained.
The science, he said, helps to answer questions, including “What are the adaptation options we see across sectors if this is what we are going to face? And what is the kind of climate financing we are going to need? How should it look? How easily accessible should it be? What are the kinds of things we need to finance?”
The results of those investigations, he said, in turn informs policy and the range of required actions – from adaptation to mitigation.
Eleanor Jones, a geographer and environmental management scientist, endorsed Taylor’s call for investment in research and with the prioritisation of applied climate research.
“Applied climate research is important; we need to have our decision-making informed by the science. We would be specifically looking at our critical areas, such as our agriculture, tourism, fisheries – and all matters related to the land and surrounding seas because some of these are going to be affected by this warming that is taking place and which we understand from the climate scientists will grow worse,” she said.
The projections about climate departure, she said, must be heeded.
“As usual, we have the people with doubts and the deniers, but if we look at this year, globally and certainly in Jamaica, we have never had temperatures the likes of which we have been experiencing,” she noted.
“We are experiencing this tremendous change, and really, what the departure is saying is that it will be progressively warmer. We can’t ignore that,” Jones added.