Strategy and message for the 2025 general election

The two major political parties will be adopting different tactics going into this election even though the groups they will target are similar. For the People’s National Party (PNP), that strategy has been to nurture discontent with the Government while it woos segments of the electorate. Conversely, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will be campaigning on its record in office. The party will also indicate that with the pivot towards growth as a consequence of macroeconomic stability, more members of the public will come to benefit from it receiving another term.

Early Mobilisation

This election will be fought constituency by constituency, and both parties know this. Notably, the PNP was quick on the draw with its selection of candidates. With this process now completed, aspiring MPs can hit the road running. Some have been very visible, with individuals like Patricia Duncan-Sutherland being the poster child for on-the-ground presence in St Andrew Eastern. Thus, where the PNP lacks in policy positions, it compensates for it in early mobilisation.

Comparatively, the JLP has been much slower in selecting its candidates. This process is still ongoing, and there have been signs of tensions in select constituencies. We can largely infer that this is driven by some dissatisfaction among the party’s councillors and workers.

The selection of Phillip Henriques’ replacement in Clarendon North Western will be interesting to watch as its outcome will signal the extent to which the party’s leadership and workers are unified. Previously, this constituency would have almost certainly been flipped by the PNP, but with the entry of former senator Warren Newby, the constituency has become more competitive.

Party Burnout

The PNP did have the benefit of good fortune with its strong showing in the local government elections. While it has not faced the JLP on a general election footing, last year’s elections provided a useful staging ground to train its electoral machinery.

Although this strategy can also backfire. With the PNP treating that election as a national election, the party expended vast resources to, essentially, achieve a draw. Like an 800m runner that did his first lap too quickly, there are signs that the PNP did not properly pace itself and has begun to burn out.

Its declining poll lead is indicative of this trend. The recent RJRGLEANER-commissioned Don Anderson poll noted that 35.4 per cent of respondents would vote for the PNP as opposed to 30.7 per cent for the JLP. While the PNP is still ahead, its 9.1 per cent lead from last September has almost halved to 4.7 per cent. This underscores a growing feeling that the PNP is losing momentum.

Getting to the Magic Number

Thirty-two is the magic number for either party to be victorious in the coming election. To get this seat count, the PNP will most probably concentrate on young, unattached voters. It will play up grievances with the Government and work to secure the vote of rural residents. For the JLP, it will also aim to maximise its appeal among young voters, which has been a core group of its support base. Simultaneously, for more marginal constituencies, it will focus on demonstrating the benefits of supporting the party.

Youth and Early Professionals

During the 2020 General Election, 61 per cent of enumerated voters between the ages of 18 and 19 cast their vote. This was significant given that the national turnout was 37.9 per cent. This suggests that younger voters are more likely to turn out to vote if motivated, and both parties will take advantage of this fact.

According to the May 2021 voters’ list, the two largest segments of the electorate were those in the age categories 25 to 29 and 30 to 34. These groups had an estimated 215,000 and 198,000 voters, respectively. Any party would be wise to mobilise these groups.

On this front, the PNP will aim to boost its presence among those below the age of 35, especially prospective first-time voters. Due to the JLP’s time in office, anyone below that age has lived most of their professional life under this administration.

Therefore, popular attack lines previously used by the JLP such as “18 years of PNP’s negligence” is unlikely to generate a strong reaction from this group as most were not alive for this period anyway. Hence, the PNP will court younger voters by campaigning on the message that it can provide more opportunities for them in light of the slowdown in economic growth.

For younger members of the electorate, they can expect to see more ads on social media platforms and heightened activity on university campuses. These sites will be feeding grounds for both parties. Party functionaries who are part of student leadership bodies such as the Guild of Students will also increase their activities in an attempt to recruit more voters to support their parties’ cause.

For the JLP, it will likely target early professionals who previously formed a large part of its winning coalition. The voters that would have been in their 20s during the 2020 election would now be in their 30s or the latter half of their 20s. The priority for these voters would be crime and the ability to afford the cost of living in Jamaica. This was recently highlighted by the Don Anderson polls conducted this January, which identified these factors as the biggest priorities for the electorate.

Who Has the Message Advantage?

Currently, the Government has the message advantage. It is very difficult to discern the Opposition’s message beyond highlighting deficiencies with the administration. The PNP’s position was most recently articulated by Mark Golding,who argued at a meeting among PNP supporters in Hartford, Connecticut: “We have a corrupt government and a power-hungry government, and they are supported by the elite and the media is bought out by them … . It is not going to be easy to get them out because … the things that we put out don’t get covered.”

That is, basically, it where the party’s messaging is concerned. Beyond the ridiculousness of the claim of media being bought out, this comment implies the challenges the party has with broadcasting its message.

Comparatively, the JLP has been more nimble, especially after the changes it made to its communications personnel. The Government has also used its incumbency and access to resources to respond to the public’s needs. Golding’s later comments conceded this point as he identified at the gathering, “They have had the SPARK programme. They have had the reserve income tax credit which is essentially a $20,000 grant to over 300,000 people.”

Beyond the irony of a party founded on progressive principles complaining about the Government spending money, these comments reveal that the administration has used its position to introduce programmes to support the Jamaican population.

Moreover, the Government has begun to capitalise on the decline in major crimes. The announced pivot towards growth is also calculated to yield dividends as the administration will argue that people will feel the benefits of its actions more tangibly going forward.

The message advantage has also started to yield dividends for the JLP. The latest Don Anderson poll found that 59 per cent of Jamaicans were eager to see the reduction in the GCT on electricity from 15 to 7 per cent, which was promised by the prime minister. The number of persons who think Jamaica is going in the wrong direction has also declined from 58 per cent in September 2024 to 47 per cent in February 2025. In terms of messaging, the JLP has the momentum.

This, however, should not be taken for granted, and the party must guard against overconfidence. As Carl Stone noted in his analysis of the 1989 elections: “Tourism in the 1980s has been the highest growth sector of the Jamaican economy… [and] yet the tourist areas voted more heavily for the PNP in 1986 than the rest of the country.”

This should be a point of caution for the JLP as the popular adage often goes, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”

David R. Salmon is a public commentator, development specialist, and a Rhodes Scholar. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and davidsalmon@live.com or on X @DavidSalmonJA.