Jamaicans urged to prepare for drier weather conditions

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are expected to intensify over the coming months.

The WMO said the phenomenon is likely to increase the risk of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events across many regions of the world.

Speaking on the Jamaica Information Service (JIS) programme, ‘Get the Facts’, Principal Director of the Meteorological Services Branch in the Ministry of Water, Environment and Climate Change, Evan Thompson, explained that El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that develops in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

“This is a pattern that sees the changing of the temperatures of the sea surface, [oscillating] between higher temperatures and lower temperatures… lower or higher than the norm. Altogether, it’s called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). But when it gets unusually warm and stays warmer than normal for a period of time, then it’s referred to as the El Niño,” he stated.

“But when it goes to the opposite side, where the temperatures are below normal for a long period of time and unusually low, then it’s referred to as La Niña,” the Principal Director added

Thompson pointed out that El Niño has far-reaching effects on weather patterns across the globe, noting that its impacts vary from region to region.

“It has a strange way of impacting the weather right across the globe. It’s warming of the Pacific Ocean could have the spinoff of changing the climate patterns because of the flow of the atmosphere. You could now see that the wind changes direction in certain areas of the globe, which includes the Caribbean,” he stated.

Thompson also noted that changes in wind patterns can influence the Atlantic Hurricane Season and overall tropical cyclone activity.

“So it sometimes causes droughts in certain areas and floods in other areas, because these changing patterns just turn everything upside down. There’ll be higher temperatures in some areas and cooler temperatures in others. So it really is diverse in how it impacts various countries. What we would normally expect in the Caribbean is… we tend to get higher temperatures, but we also tend to get lower rainfall in our region,” Thompson explained.

The principal director further noted that temperatures in the Caribbean are likely to trend a little bit above the norm throughout the summer period.

“It’s always warm during summer… and if it’s even warmer, then we could be seeing temperatures maybe even getting to some of the extremes that we've experienced in the past,” he said.

Thompson further noted that the effects of El Niño can place increased stress on individuals, particularly due to the prevalence of hotter days and warmer nights.

“So we experience hot days… and at night, we don’t get a chance to refresh or get relief in terms of the temperatures dropping sufficiently to allow us a good night’s rest. So we end up now having warm nights, uneasy sleep patterns, and we don’t recover well… so that tends to add stress for persons,” he stated.

“Then with lower rainfall and less water availability, that could also add to the stress levels, with dehydration in some cases. For plants, that’s also significant, as we could have food security being threatened. Animals, whether our pets or livestock, could also be impacted,” Thompson added.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño is forecast to strengthen to moderate or strong intensity by autumn this year.

Forecasters predict a 63 per cent likelihood that sea-surface temperatures in the Niño monitoring region of the Pacific will exceed 2.0 degrees Celsius above average. According to NOAA, surpassing this threshold would categorise the phenomenon as a “very strong” El Niño.

With the possibility of El Niño intensifying, Thompson is urging Jamaicans to prepare for unusually dry conditions that could develop into drought.

“It’s interesting that we’re moving right now through the summer period [when] we [would] normally get some amount of rainfall. So, it’s really considered part of our rainy season, where we are right now… but with less-than-normal rainfall,” he stated.

Thompson noted that Jamaica typically experiences its second rainfall peak during September and October, a period that is critical for replenishing groundwater supplies and increasing water levels in dams and reservoirs.

He explained that the rainfall received during those months helps to recharge aquifers and store sufficient water to meet the country’s needs during the dry season, which generally begins in December and extends through March.

“What we are seeing is that if rainfall is less than normal, we may not get to the levels that will sustain us through the drier period, and then that drier period will be drier than the norm. So we’re looking for a super dry period and we could get a period of drought that rivals the intense drought we experienced about four years ago. That went through December, January, February into March… and we could see that being repeated,” Thompson said.

“If that does occur… with less than normal rainfall, we’re going to have to try and find other sources of water. Whether the wells will have to provide that for us, whether we have to look to other means, whether it’s weather modification, or if we’re going to go to desalination. We have to start thinking about what the possibilities are… what are the things we need to do, if we really do have this materialising,” he added.

Meanwhile, Thompson encourages householders to consider rainwater harvesting as part of their preparedness efforts.

“When we do get the rainfall, ensure that you save as much of it as possible. We have to save the rainfall when we do get it, so that we can use it if there is nothing in our taps,” he stressed.

- JIS News

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