How France’s recognition of the state of Palestine could shift Middle East dynamics

PARIS (AP):

France’s bold decision to recognise the state of Palestine could help to shift conversations about the future of the Middle East, even if it’s unlikely to have an immediate impact for people in Gaza or on Israel’s war with Hamas.

In a world where nations are again using military force to impose their will on others – notably Russia in Ukraine, and the US and Israel with their recent strikes on Iran and its nuclear facilities – French President Emmanuel Macron is attempting to strike a blow for diplomacy and the idea that war rarely brings peace.

With less than two years left of his second and last term as president, Macron also has his legacy to think about. Not acting decisively as a humanitarian disaster unfolds in Gaza could be a stain when history books are written.

Macron has levers to influence world affairs as leader of a nuclear-armed, economically and diplomatically powerful country that also sits at the big table at the United Nations, as one of the five permanent members of its security council.

Being the first member of the G7 group of industrialised nations to take this leap carries domestic risks. Presiding over a country with both Europe’s largest Jewish population and largest Muslim population, Macron is on a public opinion tightrope. His words will please some voters but infuriate others – a fact reflected by deeply divided political reactions in France to his decision announced on X on Thursday evening.

But after staunchly backing Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas and its October 7, 2023, attack that triggered the war, Macron is signalling that France’s support can only go so far.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu denounced the shift by one of his country’s closer allies in Europe. “Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became,” he said in a statement. “A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel – not to live in peace beside it.’’

The idea that Palestinians and Israelis could live side by side in peace in their own states has perhaps never looked more unrealistic – with Gaza in ruins and the occupied West Bank facing increasing settlement by Israelis. Macron’s words alone won’t change that. Still, the French leader’s message is that the hope of a “two-state solution” achieved through diplomacy must not be allowed to die – however unattainable it may seem.

“This solution is the only path that can address the legitimate aspirations of both the Israelis and the Palestinians. It must now be brought about as quickly as possible,” Macron said in a letter to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas which confirmed his decision to recognise Palestine as a state.

“The prospect of a negotiated solution to the conflict in the Middle East seems increasingly distant. I cannot resign myself to that,” he said.

The first impacts are likeliest not in Gaza but in world capitals where leaders may face pressure or feel emboldened to follow France’s lead. Attention is focusing on other G7 nations, because of their economic and diplomatic sway.

“Macron’s declaration could create a precedent because it would be the first Western country in the G7 to do so, which could have the effect of leading others,” said David Rigoulet-Roze, a researcher at the French Institute of Strategic Analysis.

Although more than 140 countries recognise Palestine as a state, France will be the biggest, most populous and most powerful among those in Europe that have taken this step.