Caribbean tourism growth slows as cruise arrivals surge

WESTERN BUREAU:

Caribbean tourism is showing signs of slowing growth, with stayover arrivals increasing by just 1.9 per cent during the first half of 2026, even as cruise passenger visits surged 11 per cent to a record 21.7 million.

However, the regional slowdown masks stronger performances in individual destinations, with St Vincent and the Grenadines and Turks and Caicos reporting visitor growth above the Caribbean average.

The contrasting performances were highlighted during the Caribbean Tourism Organization’s (CTO) State of the Tourism Industry Conference (SOTIC) 2026, which concluded in Guyana last Friday.

Presenting the regional industry’s performance, CTO Director of Research Aliyyah Shakeer disclosed that the Caribbean welcomed approximately 18.9 million stayover visitors between January and June, compared with 18.6 million during the corresponding period in 2025.

While the first quarter recorded a 4.1 per cent increase, attracting 10 million visitors, the second quarter slipped by 0.4 per cent to 8.9 million, signalling a moderation in demand.

Shakeer cautioned against interpreting the slowdown as a collapse in the region’s tourism fortunes, explaining that the second-quarter performance came against a particularly strong corresponding period in 2025, when arrivals had increased by five per cent.

The Caribbean was also operating against a challenging international backdrop, characterised by higher fuel prices, aviation pressures, and geopolitical tensions affecting travel costs and consumer spending.

Globally, international tourist arrivals increased by just 0.4 per cent to approximately 690 million during the first six months of 2026, according to UN Tourism.

Despite the regional slowdown, St Vincent and the Grenadines reported an 8.4 per cent increase in visitor arrivals between January and August 2026, following a record year in 2025 when arrivals exceeded 120,000.

The multi-island destination is also anticipating more than 350 cruise calls during the 2026–2027 season, while strengthening its positioning around sailing, cultural experiences, adventure and nature-based tourism.

Turks and Caicos is similarly reporting stronger growth, welcoming 494,466 stayover visitors between January and August, a five per cent increase over the corresponding period last year.

Experience Turks and Caicos Public Relations Manager Laura Dowrich-Phillips, presenting the destination’s performance at SOTIC, also reported 776,438 cruise passenger arrivals during the eight-month period.

The destination is expanding its tourism infrastructure, with several international luxury hotel brands scheduled to open properties in the coming years, alongside increased airline services and airport redevelopment.

Although the destination figures cover January to August, compared with the CTO’s January-to-June regional assessment, they illustrate the varying pace of tourism growth across the Caribbean.

St Kitts, meanwhile, is placing greater emphasis on the economic value generated by tourism, reporting a 22 per cent increase in on-island spending.

According to Mastercard figures presented at the conference, spending increased from US$28.3 million in 2025 to US$34.5 million in 2026, with significant expenditure also recorded from the Dutch Caribbean market.

The destination is pursuing a strategy centred on sustainable tourism, stronger community participation and expanded air connectivity, including additional American Airlines frequencies and an earlier seasonal start by Air Canada.

St Lucia is also positioning itself for further growth through hotel developments, expanded air connectivity and international marketing initiatives, including promotion of its cultural festivals and tourism experiences.

One of the most significant developments identified by Shakeer was the emergence of South America as the Caribbean’s fastest-growing source market.

Arrivals from the continent jumped 19.5 per cent to approximately 1.19 million visitors during the first half of 2026, compared with just under one million a year earlier.

South America’s share of regional arrivals has consequently increased to 6.3 per cent.

The United States maintained its position as the Caribbean’s largest source market, accounting for 48.4 per cent of visitors, or approximately 9.18 million arrivals. However, growth from that market was a modest 1.6 per cent.

Canada performed more strongly, with arrivals increasing 5.9 per cent to 1.77 million, while European arrivals remained virtually unchanged at 2.56 million, representing growth of just 0.4 per cent.

Intra-Caribbean travel improved by 4.4 per cent to approximately 578,000 arrivals.

Shakeer said the trends reinforced the importance of diversifying source markets and strengthening air connectivity, with the CTO planning a Latin American tourism summit in St Lucia in May 2027 and an Air Connectivity Summit in Jamaica next February.

While stayover tourism experienced modest growth, the Caribbean’s cruise sector continued its rapid expansion, recording approximately 21.7 million passenger visits during the first six months of 2026, an 11 per cent increase over the corresponding period last year.

Cruise activity grew 12 per cent during the first quarter and 9.3 per cent during the second, with 19 of the 24 reporting destinations registering increases.

Shakeer emphasised that cruise passenger visits do not represent unique visitors, as passengers may be counted at multiple destinations during a single itinerary.

The challenge, she stressed, extends beyond attracting greater passenger volumes to ensuring that cruise tourism generates meaningful economic benefits through increased spending ashore, stronger business linkages and repeat visits.

The region’s hotel sector also recorded improved financial performance, with average room occupancy reaching 73.1 per cent and average daily rates climbing 9.2 per cent to US$414.52.

Revenue per available room increased 11.4 per cent to US$303.15, suggesting stronger hotel returns despite slower visitor growth.

Looking ahead, the CTO projects that stayover arrivals will increase between two and three per cent for the full year, approaching 36 million visitors, while cruise passenger visits are expected to grow between five and seven per cent to approximately 38 million.

For Shakeer, the region’s next challenge is not simply increasing visitor numbers, but strengthening competitiveness, spreading tourism’s benefits more widely, and maximising the economic value generated by each visit.

janet.silvera@gleanerjm.com