Strong El Niño could lead to impactful drought as well as humid heat over the next three months

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados, CMC – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Tuesday said that during the second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and the transition out of the Caribbean wet and heat seasons, a very strong El Niño could lead to a potential expansion of impactful drought, as well as humid heat peaking in October in the Guianas and likely lingering in the Lesser Antilles, culminating in heatwaves.

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter for the period October to December this year, CariCOF said that unusually irregular and infrequent tropical cyclone activity, as well as unusually low shower, wet spell and excessive rainfall event frequency, are also associated with the strong El Niño.

El Niño is caused by the weakening or reversal of trade winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean, which allows warm surface water to flow eastward towards the Americas.

“Nevertheless, high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts remains across the region, with the possible exception of the ABC (Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao) Islands and French Guiana and coral reef bleaching potential around the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles,” CariCOF said.

It said that dusty Saharan air intrusions, though infrequent at this time, can further inhibit tropical cyclone activity, while exacerbating heat and deteriorating air quality.

According to CariCOF, as of September 1, short-term drought has developed in Antigua, north-northwest Bahamas, Central Cuba, Grand Cayman, Grenada, north-east Puerto Rico, St Barts, St Kitts, St Vincent and Tobago, while severe (or worse) long-term drought is developing in Grand Cayman, west French Guiana, Tobago, St Barts, St Kitts and the Windward Islands.

CariCOF said that for the period January to March next year in the Caribbean, this period marks the progression to the peak of the Dry Season and the transition out of the Cool Season in March.

“This year’s very strong El Niño, combined with unusable heat in the tropical North Atlantic, will drive higher than usual air temperatures across the Caribbean. The unusual heat should be more comfortable at least through February, but will compound growing rainfall deficits in the many areas where agricultural and hydrological drought is in place or will likely build up.”

CariCOF said that this could expand and worsen drought, with likely growing cascading impacts across various sectors of the economy even by May 2027.

“Strong El Niño events further tend to decrease the risk of severe weather throughout much of the region, but the risk of flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts remains moderate,” CariCOF said, adding that “the very strong Niño means an earlier start to the 2027 Heat Season”.

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