Anthony Clayton and Tanya Bedward | The coming of autonomy

A number of countries are now experimenting with self-driving cars. The US, UK, China, Norway, Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Singapore and others all now have prototypes of robo-taxis on the roads. Current forecasts from the industry suggest that robo-taxis and fully autonomous trucks will become commercially available by about 2030, and will bring the cost of transport down below today’s levels by about 2035.

Autonomous vehicles won’t just drive themselves. They will also monitor their engine, tyres, power consumption and so on, and book themselves in for maintenance when necessary. The maintenance will be rapid and cheap, because it will mainly consist of swapping out modules, so maintenance could also be automated.

Autonomous vehicles will serve as eyes and ears all over the transport system, reporting accidents, dangerous driving, bad weather and potholes. As most of them will be electric, they will also function as a national energy storage system, recharging themselves when renewable energy is readily available during the day, and serving as a vast battery back-up system when more power (and less transport) is needed at night. There are already people in other countries who charge their car from their solar roof when the vehicle is parked, and now have free motoring as a result.

Although there have been some accidents involving prototype autonomous vehicles, the causes of these problems should be largely resolved over the next few years, so that by the time the vehicles become commercially available they should be much safer than human drivers. Jamaica had 364 road deaths in 2024, but the number should be close to zero after the country has made the transition to a fully autonomous transport system.

Perhaps the most revolutionary change, however, is that the advent of autonomous vehicles will eventually make it unnecessary to own a car. Those who have an Uber or other transport app on their phone are used to the idea that a vehicle is only a click away. With a large fleet of autonomous vehicles on the roads, the closest one can be immediately routed to the customer, making it the easiest and cheapest solution for almost all transport needs.

CHALLENGES

The transition will, however, present a few challenges for Jamaica. One of them is that it will make taxi-men, bus drivers, ‘ductas’, loader-men and many garage mechanics redundant. Traffic police can, of course, be reassigned to more urgent tasks, and insurance companies can rewrite their policies, but there will still be many who will have to look for new jobs.

The second problem is that cars do not just represent a way of taking the children to school, getting to the office and collecting the groceries. They also represent personal space, status and (for some people) sex appeal. So the transition will also require a certain amount of psychological and cultural adjustment.

The important point to note, however, is that once autonomous vehicles become significantly cheaper to operate and maintain than conventional vehicles, there will be an increasing incentive to retire the old models and replace them with autonomous taxis, trucks and buses.

The cost advantages will eventually become compelling. Preliminary estimates suggest that autonomous trucks, which can drive in close convoys and operate without the breaks needed for the driver to eat and sleep, will reduce the price per load by about 75 per cent. The cost savings if people no longer need to own their own car are even greater, as for most people car ownership represents the largest drain on their resources after paying the rent/mortgage (it is also the most unproductive, as most vehicles spend more time parked outside the home or the office rather than performing a useful function).

In countries that manufacture vehicles, there is an interaction between policy and technology; government policies have some influence over the choice of technology and vice-versa. Jamaica, however, has to import all its vehicles, so has limited control over the pace and direction of automation. At some point, it will become harder and more expensive to obtain traditional vehicles, so Jamaica too will make the transition to an autonomous transport system.

INTERIM SOLUTIONS

Some interim solutions are already here. Adaptive cruise control, lane-keeping assist and automated emergency braking are now standard in some Honda, Nissan, Toyota and Hyundai models, but the transition to fully autonomous vehicles will require a more significant adjustment in driver expectations.

Jamaicans have generally been quick to embrace new consumer technology, as seen in the rapid adoption of smart phones. However, autonomous vehicle integration is much more complex than a personal tech upgrade. Unlike smartphones, autonomous vehicles interact with physical infrastructure, so policymakers must consider road network redesign, vehicle import regulations, licensing requirements, and evolving insurance models. Autonomous vehicles would revolutionise public transport, easing congestion and enhancing safety, but would require smart infrastructure, digital mapping, and legislative reforms.

Further upgrade of the telecommunications networks would also be needed to carry the flood of data from the new ‘smart road’ network which some countries are already building in preparation. This does not just include vehicles talking to each other about lane changes or traffic congestion ahead, it also includes data from sensors embedded in road surfaces about road conditions, temperature, humidity, slipperiness and so on. Jamaica’s telecommunications infrastructure is privately owned, and investment in autonomous vehicle-supporting networks would require clear financial incentives, so this too requires a certain amount of guidance from government.

At present, therefore, there are a number of impediments to a smooth transition to a modern transport system in Jamaica, the main ones being badly-built and poorly-maintained roads and an increasingly obsolete raft of regulations and policies pertaining to vehicles, so a lot of work would be required to ensure that Jamaica is ready for the new technologies. This makes it very important that the Government of Jamaica should establish new, proactive policy frameworks that integrate technological advancement with national interests. Public awareness campaigns will also play a crucial role in determining the speed and success of the transition.

Transportation is a key pre-requisite and driver of economic growth, and other countries have seen and are now building the future. China has already committed $1 trillion to building the smart road networks to support autonomous vehicle deployment.

To date, however, there has been relatively little research on the transition to autonomous vehicles in developing countries such as Jamaica. The revolution in transport will, however, soon reach these shores, so the only question is whether Jamaica will take a proactive stance or remain a passive, late recipient of the major advantages of the new technologies.

The answer depends on the country’s willingness to make strategic investments, embrace forward-thinking policies, and dismantle barriers. Autonomous vehicle technology is no longer a distant possibility; it is actively reshaping global transportation. If Jamaica wishes to remain relevant in an evolving world, it must engage with this technological shift. Bold, strategic action to navigate the future of mobility on its own terms need to be taken, or risk being sidelined as the rest of the world moves into the age of autonomy.

Anthony Clayton is the emeritus professor of Caribbean Sustainable Development at The University of the West Indies. Tanya Bedward is former principal director, transport policy (international & land) and a PhD candidate at The UWI. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com