Late delivery

The Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) has revealed the population grew by 2.8 per cent from 2011 to 2022, as it yesterday released the long-anticipated census, bringing an end to a gruelling process that faced several irregularities. Among those irregularities, STATIN has confirmed, were the non-recovery of a number of devices used to collect personal data and a break-in at the census office.

In the results released yesterday, STATIN indicated the population had grown to 2,774,538.

The institute said the data revealed that births are declining, and noted that this trend has been ongoing for several decades.

“We’re also seeing deaths increasing, and net migration. We have a population that’s growing, but at a slower rate,” said Director General Leesha Delatie-Budair at the S Hotel Kingston in New Kingston yesterday, during the release of the 2022 Housing and Population Census.

“If we continue on this path, we will have a declining population.”

The information comes amid raised eyebrows over the data-collection process and a delay in the release of the results, impacted in part by COVID-19.

Last year, a Gleaner source at the senior level at STATIN disclosed that approximately 200 tablets, acquired as part of a batch of 7,500, were stolen following a break-in at the census office.

The Gleaner source also indicated that STATIN did not retrieve all the devices issued to collect data from the population, and that the census operations began without a project manager.

STATIN confirmed, via email to The Gleaner in September last year, that it hired a project manager and two project coordinators, but noted that “this team joined later than planned due to difficulties in attracting a project manager during the initial phase of the census, despite STATIN advertising the post on several occasions”.

STATIN also confirmed that “there was an incident at the main census office”, but did not disclose the nature of the incident. It said this was before the start of data collection and that, at the time, the Jamaica Constabulary Force was investigating the matter.

Further, the agency confirmed that not all tablets given to census takers/workers to complete the data collection were returned, noting that it had taken steps to retrieve them.

Responding to a question on whether it could confirm that the data collected from individuals who participated in the census and stored on these devices were secure, STATIN said, “Yes”, adding that “in general, all devices used for data collection by the institute are secure, as part of STATIN’s commitment to data protection”.

It did not confirm how many devices were outstanding.

Quizzed on whether the institute could say with certainty that the census had been conducted in 70 per cent of the enumeration districts, it said, “STATIN stands by any data it issues regarding the census”.

Still, The Gleaner source indicated that STATIN was forced to withhold payments to some census takers/workers because mandatory questions presented on the questionnaire were not answered after they administered the document.

STATIN argued that there are minimum standards/criteria that all its returned questionnaires must meet before payment could be approved.

“Only questionnaires that meet the minimum standard are being paid for. Census workers were informed of the criteria for payment of questionnaires during their training, and this condition was reiterated in subsequent communiques,” the institute said.

The response raises questions about whether crucial data required for the accurate taking of the census were not submitted and the possible impact on the outcome.

Yesterday, STATIN’s Stacey Ann Robinson highlighted demographic shifts she said were shaping Jamaica’s population landscape amid the release of the results.

She attributed population changes to three key demographic processes: births, deaths, and migration. Between 2011 and 2022, Jamaica recorded its lowest average annual growth rate in decades.

Compared to the 1982 census, when Jamaica’s population was 2.19 million, the country is now recording about one-third fewer births, with a decline of 30.1 per cent, while deaths are up 44.5 per cent. Over the same period, net migration – inflows minus outflows – has also dropped by 31.8 per cent, further contributing to the overall slowdown in population growth.

Robinson explained that the decline in births reflects greater agency among women, driven by higher educational attainment, increased participation in the workforce, and wider access to contraceptives. As for the rise in deaths, she attributed it to an ageing population reaching the end of life, along with factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, road accidents, non-communicable diseases, AIDS, and violence.

Parish-level data revealed the most significant growth in St Catherine, which added 26,545 residents to reach some 542,760 persons. Clarendon followed with an increase of 13,540 to about 258,600, while Kingston & St Andrew saw a rise of 10,478 to roughly 673,000. Hanover registered the least growth, adding just 247 persons to bring the total to 69,780 persons.

The census release has raised concerns about data timeliness. STATIN said it has already started planning for the 2030 census, having implemented the lessons learnt from the 2022 census.

kimone.francis@gleanerjm.com

CENSUS FACTS

. Jamaica’s population in 2022 was 2,774,538, an increase of 2.8 per cent, compared with the 2011 census, the previous census year.

. The average annual growth rate of 0.24 per cent was the lowest over the period 1970-2022.

. The growth rate observed was influenced by a 42.2 per cent decline in births, moving from 747,788 to 432,018 over the intercensal periods 1970-1982 to 2011-2022.

. It was further impacted by population losses due to deaths moving from 188,993 to 236,687, and net migration of -216,959 to -118,776 over the same periods.

. The average annual number of births of 56,205 for the period 1982-91 fell by 30.1 per cent to 39,274 for the intercensal period, 2011-2022.

. Average annual deaths increased by 44.5 per cent for the same period, from 14,886 to 21,517.

. Migration declined by 31.8 per cent over the same period.

. Kingston is the most populated parish – 672,904, up from 662,426, an increase of 10,478.

. St Catherine saw the biggest percentage increase after adding 26,545 people to its population (542,763), which is 516,218.

. Hanover is the least populated parish with 69,780 people, up from 69,533.