Don Anderson | How do opinion polls and election results compare

Market Research Services Limited, the company I head, has done a considerable number of national and constituency polls since we branched out into the political arena in 1989.

The success of polling companies is measured by the extent to which the final polling numbers immediately prior to an election closely resemble the outcome of the election.

Fortunately, despite the very difficult and often very divisive political environment here in Jamaica, the Don Anderson team has been able to maintain and strengthen its professional reputation with each succeeding election. This it does by virtue of very accurately and consistently predicting the outcome of a string of recent elections on the basis of trend data it collects.

Referencing the period 2016 to present, our team has conducted at least 13 National Polls, utilising samples between 1,000 and 1,100 persons aged 18 years and over.

Over this period, we had the national elections of 2016 and 2020 and the local government of 2024. It is instructive to compare the final poll results for these elections with the actual outcomes of those elections.

PARTY STANDINGS BASED ON POLLS DONE BY DON ANDERSON SINCE 2016

DATE OF POLL PNP JLP PNP lead JLP lead AVERAGE

% % % % %

1 April 2024 36.8 29.0 7.8 The PNP’s lead average is less than 4%.

2 February 2024 23 24 1

3 2023 (3) 25 22 3

4 2023 (2) 30 25 5

5 2023 (1) 28 28 TIE TIE

6 2022 18 31 13 Between Feb 2018 and Dec 2022, the JLP led the PNP by avg of 10% points

7 2021 17 26 9

8 Jul 2020 20 36 16

9 Feb 2020 22 30 8

10 March 2019 18 29 11

11 February 2018 19 26 7

12 Jan 2016 26 23 3

THE 2016 ELECTION

The poll conducted in 2016 had the PNP ahead by 3 % points, within the margin of error of plus or minus 3%.

The PNP then had a 42-21 seat majority in parliament going into the election. Anecdotal wisdom suggests that they should have had a much wider than a 3% lead, with only 4 years having elapsed since the last election. But this was not what my team found. Indeed, it was clear that the PNP was basically hanging on to power at that time. Clearly the JLP did not believe these polls as they were totally unprepared for the announcement of victory for them on the night the counts ended.

The JLP won the 2016 election by 1 seat, consistent with the poll prediction.

From 2018-2022, a period of poll dominance by the JLP

Between February 2018 and the end of 2022, my team conducted 6 national polls.

The JLP held commanding leads in ALL SIX, with an unprecedented 16% points lead in July 2020 before the September election. Over those 6 polls, the JLP lead was an average of 10%, each of these polls suggesting a landslide win for the incumbent JLP. In the minds of some critics of polls, when a party enjoys such a lead, it is because the pollster has been paid extra to come up with those favourable numbers. If there is any professionalism, integrity or morality in that thought (which there isn’t), then I would need to reflect on those 6 consecutive polls with hugely favourable numbers for the JLP and ponder what I must have missed. Six successive national polls over a 4-year period and an average lead of 10.5% points for the JLP.

The numbers were very clear. The JLP won the 2020 elections comfortably, garnering 49 seats to the PNP’s 14.

Poll data again was very consistent with the election result of that year.

The 2023-2024 period, PNP gathering momentum

Between 2023 and 2024, five national polls were conducted. By this time, the JLP had been in office for 7 years. This is about the time, in the middle of a second term, that incumbents tend to begin to “buck their toes”. Some ruling parties are sensitive to this and quite often, others are not.

In these 5 national polls conducted, the PNP led in 3 with an average lead of three per cent, while the JLP led in one, with one tied. The PNP average of three per cent lead in those three was nowhere near the JLP average lead of 10 plus in those dominant 6 years between 2016 and 2022

The February 2024 national poll we conducted two weeks before the LGE had the JLP ahead by one per cent. The dominance of the JLP in those years immediately prior to 2023, was undermined by a number of issues which impacted negatively on the perception of the party and which pulled away some of the core support of the party, as disaffection grew.

This disaffection was verified through the five polls conducted during this time, but also through a significant body of anecdotal information which confirmed poll findings that the party was beginning to lose touch with the people.

Amid these specific challenges that the party was facing, there was growing body of opinion that the principal reason for postponing the LGE on a number of occasions was because the party leadership had become sensitive to the growing disaffection and were unsure as to whether to call it or not.

All of this was picked up in the polls conducted over this period.

The LGE of February 2024

So the JLP went into the LGE with a one per cent lead over the PNP. This meant that since the dominance of the JLP between 2016 and 2022, either that the PNP was gradually gaining traction (aka momentum) or the JLP was losing ground (or both). The election results showed a significant swing of over 10% points to the PNP from the 2020 election. The election was so close that after 4 days of counting it was still nationally debated who actually won the election. The PNP claimed the popular, the JLP the majority of the councils. This was the first time since 2012 that more persons voted for the PNP than those who voted for the JLP.

Another case where poll data was consistent with the election outcome.

That 7.8% lead for the PNP, importance of trends

The latest poll conducted by my team for the PNP in April 2024 has the PNP 7.8% points ahead. This is huge, but a comparatively minimal lead assessed against 16% points lead that the JLP enjoyed in 2020. It is indeed the biggest lead that the PNP has had since 2012. The trend, however, had set in from 2023, when the PNP enjoyed a 5% lead, which was whittled down to three per cent during the year.

The data from our polling has revealed that the election victory claimed by the PNP in February has served to reinvigorate the PNP supporters, including noticeably the older voters who have traditionally been their core support. It has also given the party the momentum which it needed and has encouraged the bandwagon effect where people now see the PNP with a chance of winning the next general election and have begun to “jump on the wagon”.

The 7.8% lead then is not dramatic as some contend, but a hastening of gathering momentum for the PNP, which started at the beginning of 2023.

Politics is about marketing, not about politics. The PNP seized upon the realisation of this momentum and smartly commissioned a poll almost immediately after the encouraging results of the LGE. The reaction from some quarters of the JLP was expected. Discredit the poll findings as much as possible. I doubt that there is any empirical data anywhere that can show that this strategy has been able to win back supporters who are either disgruntled or being attracted elsewhere or to gain supporters. The appropriate marketing approach should be to conduct one’s own polls and honestly assess what strategies to apply to correct seeming distancing from the party by voters.

Right now, it appears that the PNP is better appreciating the importance of marketing, an art they lost during their turbulent days between 2014 and 2022.

Political polls represent a small per cent of the business of MRSL. It just happens to be the loudest.

We bring the same consistently high degree of professionalism and integrity to polls as we do when we are working for the World Bank throughout the Caribbean, for Central Bank, for several of the major financial institutions here, for fast food companies, major corporate bodies, Chambers of Commerce, several public sector bodies, government ministries and MSMEs, to name a few.

Moreover, a significant portion of our current highway structure has had the benefit of origin and destination surveys that we have conducted as sub-contractors.

Our record speaks for itself.

Don Anderson is executive chairman of Market Research Services Ltd., and former senior adjunct lecturer in research methods to graduate students at the University of the West Indies (Mona). Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com