Elizabeth Morgan | The Western Hemisphere in this new Trump era

IN PREVIOUS articles in this column, it was pointed out that the relationship between the USA and countries in this Western Hemisphere has been historically strained in spite of the creation of the Organization of American States (OAS), headquartered in Washington, DC, in 1948. Canada did not join until 1990. The fact is that “the America first” agenda has always existed in the OAS as the US regarded this hemisphere as its sphere of influence implementing the Monroe Doctrine of 1823. The US’s efforts to dominate in this hemisphere has been its foreign policy mistake, which continues and will be intensified.

A national from the CARICOM region, Ambassador Albert Ramdin, foreign minister of Suriname, is a candidate for the post of OAS Secretary General. He was a past deputy secretary general. The foreign minister of Paraguay is also a candidate. The election should be on March 10. Ambassador Ramdin, if elected, will have a challenging job.

President Trump, as reported, has threatened to annex Canada, making it the 51st state of the USA, and to take back the Panama Canal Zone.

In addition, there are human rights and internal political issues with Nicaragua and Venezuela, which have both withdrawn from OAS, and in Guatemala and Haiti. Cuba is not a member of the OAS. CARICOM members have their own issues in this body.

This means that the OAS will be an even more dysfunctional body. Peace and unity may not be found there.

President Trump’s new Foreign Secretary is Marco Rubio, former Florida senator, of Cuban descent. It appears that he intends to focus on this hemisphere, but this may not be comforting for many countries, including Cuba. He sees China as an adversary, not a competitor, in the region.

SUMMIT OF THE AMERICAS

The Summit of the Americas is the conference of the OAS. In recent years, it has not really made a significant impression. President Donald Trump did not attend the 8th Summit held in April 2018 in Lima, Peru. The 9th Summit in June 2022 was held in Los Angeles, USA, hosted by President Joe Biden. The Los Angeles Declaration on Migration and Protection emerged from it. The 10th Summit is scheduled to be held in Punta Cana, Dominican Republic, in October this year. Will President Trump attend? What will be achieved?

CHINA IN THIS HEMISPHERE

Instead of European colonial powers, in this 21st century, the People’s Republic of China has made inroads into the hemisphere, strengthening its bilateral relations with countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). This has been a concern for the USA, which has led to some effort on its part to make its presence felt.

President Trump is proposing to retake the Panama Canal because he claims that China is operating in the zone. It is reported that there is no evidence of this. China is seen as a US adversary. As with the Soviet Union in the Cold War, the rivalry between these two powers could be played out in this LAC region.

Remember also that Russia has a presence in Venezuela, and India has been strengthening its presence in the region.

COMMUNITY OF LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES (CELAC)

CELAC is a grouping of all 33 countries of Latin America and the Caribbean, including Cuba. CARICOM is a member of the bureau. It was established in 2011 at a meeting in Caracas, Venezuela, with the objective to deepen LAC integration and strengthen cooperation. The pro tempore presidency is currently Honduras, which will host the summit in March 2025. Thereafter, the presidency will pass to Colombia. At this point, the strength and unity of CELAC is not clear. These would be useful attributes in this new Trump age.

CELAC has joint meetings with entities, such as the European Union and China. The EU/CELAC Summit is already scheduled for Colombia this year. The last summit was in 2023. The 10th anniversary of the China/CELAC Summit was held in 2024. It is reported that the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, will be visiting China to attend this year’s summit, which, for him, is a change in position on China. This forum is an indication of China’s growing relationship with LAC members.

THE LAC IN OTHER MEETINGS

The current chair of the G20 is Brazil, which will hand over to South Africa later in the year. Brazil has assumed the chair of the BRICS. The region will be looking to Brazil’s President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and Colombia’s President, Gustavo Petro, for leadership.

The UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) will be held in Brazil this year. However, the Trump administration has again withdrawn from the Paris Climate Accord. Another cause for concern with current droughts, fires and frigid temperatures. The year 2024 was the hottest year on record. Yet, the US is jettisoning the green agenda, it seems.

TRADE

Trump has indicated his intent to violate every trade agreement/arrangement existing with countries in this hemisphere by imposing a 10 per cent tariff on all imported goods into the USA, and 25 per cent on imports from Canada and Mexico.

Foreign Secretary Marco Rubio, in reference to China, stated that the US will be rebuilding its domestic industrial capacity, and will make sure that the US is not reliant on any other nation for any of its critical supply chains. Interesting – what does this mean for hopes of near-shoring?

How will this unfold? What will be the economic implications?

CARICOM

The Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, is chair of CARICOM from January to July. She will host the February Heads Conference. CARICOM members were subject to President Trump’s transactional policies in his first term. The meeting at Mar-a-Largo in Florida in January, 2019, was not a shining moment for CARICOM. It is not clear what benefits accrued from this encounter, whether any US investments materialised.

So, here we are again, with the key issues for the US, as usual, being illegal immigration and security, meaning narcotics. It is doubtful that the inflow of illegal guns will be raised again. It is not sure how Haiti will be considered. Development support has a question mark.

So, at its February Summit, CARICOM has to address how it will approach the Trump administration and how it will function in the OAS, CELAC, and other bodies.

Very interesting times ahead, indeed.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com