Editorial | A twist to storm season

According to Robert Morgan, the works minister, Jamaica was early in preparing for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season.

Which makes sense. The Government doesn’t want a repeat of last year, when it bore the brunt of the blame for the effects of Hurricane Beryl, which side-swiped the island’s southern coast.

So, last week Mr Morgan told Parliament that the administration has allocated $172 million for mitigation programmes in constituencies, while it is spending another $560 million to clean, as well as undertake immediate repairs of drain and gullies in critical areas, to minimise the likelihood of flooding in the event of storms.

This spending is apparently separate from the $2.8 billion that Minister Morgan highlighted in his contribution in Parliament’s Sectoral Debate and said was budgeted for a structured gully repair, and flood prevention projects during the current fiscal year.

“We are ready,” Mr Morgan said about preparation for the hurricane season. “We are ready.”

This newspaper hopes that those words hold true. Better still, we wish that the hurricane season doesn’t turn out to be as active as the scientists project it will be, and that few of the between 13 and 19 expected named storms do materialise. If any does, we wish it doesn’t advance to become a major hurricane.

REPORTS OF SHORTAGE

One thing Mr Morgan didn’t address, however, in his report on Jamaica’s preparation for the storm season, is the efficiency, speed and effectiveness with which the island’s meteorological service will be able to track weather systems and emerging storms and advise citizens thereof, given developments at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which has been widely reported and debated in the United States. It is a conversation that the Jamaican Government, as well as officials at the island’s Met service, including the agency’s principal director, Evon Thompson, should engage in.

To be clear, this newspaper has no questions about the capacities or competence, or the professionalism of the people who are responsible for climate and weather analysis and forecasting in Jamaica.

However, they don’t have at their command the same level of resources, especially technology – such as access to satellites and radars or the super computers that help analyses of complex global weather models – as their counterparts at NOAA, and particularly at the National Hurricane Centre (NHC), which is part of NOAA.

The NHC, through its Hurricane Specialist Unit tracks and analyses tropical cyclones and areas of disturbed weather in the North Atlantic and east North Pacific basins.

Not only does it provide forecasts and advisories for mainland United States and US Caribbean territories, it also does so for World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) member countries in North and Central America and the Caribbean – the WMO’s Region IV.

MITIGATE NEGATIVE EFFECTS

While technology helps tremendously in the analyses and forecasting done by NOAA and NHC scientists, these technologies haven’t replaced the need for scientists. Certainly, not yet. This, then, is The Gleaner’s concern and why we look forward to hearing from Jamaica’s authorities during this hurricane season.

Under President Donald Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) over 600 jobs have been cut from the NOAA and America’s National Weather Service (NWS), leaving many NWS offices across the country understaffed, by between 20 per cent and 40 per cent. The job losses have ranged from meteorologists to technical personnel, such as the people who launch weather balloons and those who repair Doppler radars.

It has been reported that the job cuts have also impacted the NHC, despite the administration downplaying reports of shortage of at least six specialists.

In the face of a public backlash against the effect of the job cuts in critical forecasting services, the administration has given the go-ahead for some re-hirings. But experts say that the recruitment of specialised staff can be tedious, especially if those who were let go, or accepted early retirement, have already moved on.

“The system is already overstretched and at some point it will snap,” Tom Fahy, legislative director of the National Weather Service Employees Organisation, an independent labour union , told The Guardian newspaper. “We are at the snapping point now.”

This debate is taking place at a critical time, at the start of the Atlantic hurricane season. It would do no harm for Jamaica’s officials to say frankly, if, and how, the events might impact the island, and what is being done to mitigate any negative effects, should it come to that.