Peter Espeut | Misjudging public opinion

As a researcher myself I am a keen poll-watcher, particularly political polls. Most people focus on poll questions that try to measure party standings, and those are interesting; but survey research is also useful in helping parties and candidates to select issues on which to campaign, and which to avoid.

For example, if the polls show that the electorate don’t care about corruption one way or the other, then – ethics and morality be damned – election manifestos will be silent on anti-corruption policies, and politicians and their acolytes won’t feel they need to be particularly careful about avoiding the perception of illicit enrichment, influence peddling, conflict of interest, nepotism, cronyism, bribery and graft and the like.

Gone are the days – it seems – when persons seeking public office craft political promises around honesty, transparency, decency, family values, and the common good. If the polls show that the electorate want a government that will provide political spoils, then – ethics and morality be damned – that is what the campaign will be about.

Some politicians do not use poll findings to craft their manifestos but, feeling that they “know the people”, design their campaigns on what they (the politicians) feel will impress “the people”.

I don’t know what polls the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) have commissioned, but one can induce from their campaign advertisements what they believe the people will respond positively to.

Being the incumbent, they know that they have to run on their record. If during the campaign they promise they will do “this” or “that”, the people will say: “But you have been in power for nine years. Why have you not done “this” or “that” already? You have had the time”. Such promises are not credible, and so they know they have to run on their achievements. [When the People’s National Party (PNP) was in power they did the same thing – crowing about their “solid achievements”].

DISCONNECT

And so the JLP have been crowing about the economy being in the best shape in decades: high foreign exchange reserves, low unemployment, low inflation. “You should be feeling the prosperity already”, they say. But the trouble is that positive macroeconomic indicators do not always translate into people’s pockets, and presently there is a disconnect: that message is not resonating.

A KFC (two piece) Meal Deal costs J$1,050; the KFC 50th Anniversary promotion gave away a free Meal Deal for every Big Deal bought. Hundreds (thousands?) of Jamaicans lined up for hours from before daybreak to get two pieces of free chicken. That – I think you will agree – is a poll – a poll of the prosperity of the country. If people will stress out for J$1,050 worth of chicken, messages about high foreign exchange reserves, low unemployment, and low inflation is not cutting it! I don’t think that message is working.

The JLP is deeply invested in hammering home that murders are down. The police public relations department issues press releases daily telling us the latest number of “lives they have saved”, compared with the numbers murdered last year. To quote The Gleaner editorial of Monday, June 30: “Jamaica, up to June 21, recorded 322 murders, a 43 per cent reduction compared to the same period last year. This decline is a follow-on from 2024 when murders fell by 18 per cent, to 1,141”.

This kind of daily police press release (why is the JCF campaigning for the JLP? At taxpayers expense?) is clearly of the highest importance to the JLP. Certainly, opinion polls over the years indicate that Jamaica’s high murder rate is of great personal and political concern to Jamaican voters.

To an onlooker this is a major JLP campaigning point; you hear it every day on the 6 a.m. news, the midday news, and the 5 p.m. news. Too much! And yet the latest Gleaner-Don Anderson poll data indicate that Jamaicans remain ambivalent about the effectiveness of the Jamaica Constabulary Force (JCF) to address crime.

Indeed, according to Don Anderson’s findings, more people (59.8 per cent) now say that they feel LESS SAFE in their communities than five years ago, when only three in 10 Jamaica (32.7 per cent) said they felt unsafe where they lived.

DEEPLY CONCERNED

Clearly the JLP campaign message about their achievements is not getting across. The JLP must be deeply concerned – even worried – that their campaign messaging is failing.

It should be obvious why. The poll findings show that 45.6 per cent of Jamaicans are uneasy to sceptical over the steep upward spiral in police fatal shootings so far this year. Only 31.7 per cent feel that the rise in police killings is justified.

Up to June 24, Jamaica’s security forces (mostly the police) killed 160 citizens. This compared with 67 for the entire first six months of 2024. That’s 93 more, or a 139 per cent rise in fatal shootings.

Some people support the police killings; 14.1 per cent say the police are doing their jobs, 12.1 per cent say that they are “getting rid of criminals” and 3.7 per cent say that such killings are sometimes necessary.

But 21 per cent say that the numbers are excessive, 6.7 per cent say that the police need to be more accountable, and 5.2 per cent say that too many innocent people are killed.

I remember the young man whose photograph was recently posted on the police website as wanted for murder, and then they said it was a case of mistaken identity – like poor Keith Clarke.

Many definitely feel unsafe: “if the gunmen don’t get me, the police might!”

I don’t know if campaigning on the JCF statistics is working for the JLP.

Another recent poll finding was that nearly one in three Jamaicans say they cannot identify a single area they believe the Andrew Holness administration has excelled in since 2020. So much about crowing about achievements!

The JLP can’t be happy with these poll findings. We watch and see.

Peter Espeut is a sociologist and development scientist. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com