Don Anderson | Growing voter apathy

There is no question that the Jamaican voter has become increasingly apathetic to the process of voting, to political parties, to politics and to politicians.

We have seen an increasingly lower turnout of voters at the polls each succeeding election, especially after the change in the method of registration round-about year 2000. Prior to 2000, voters registered to vote when an election was called, this meant that the number voting closely resembled the number registering.

It was in 1980 that we recorded our biggest voter turnout of 87 per cent, making it one of the highest in the Caribbean at the time.

In the last two elections, we recorded our all-time lows, with 37.8 per cent in 2020 (COVID year), and 38.5 per cent in last Wednesday’s election.

While the reporting in voter turnout in percentage terms does speak clearly to the significant fall off in voter participation, it is useful to look at this from the perspective of the actual numbers.

The percentage turn out is a function of the number of persons registered. Since 2000, the Electoral Office has used a system of continuous registration of voters, which means that registration is ongoing, irrespective of the date of the next election. New voters lists are produced twice yearly to update the number of voters on the roll.

This process of registration has served to attract a significant number of new potential voters each year and as a result the pool of registered voters has grown exponentially. From 1,182, 292 registered voters in the 1997 election, 2,077,000 persons were registered to vote in the recently concluded election.

ACTUAL NUMBER

Careful note however needs to be taken of the actual number of voters who turned out.

In the 1980 election, 860,746 persons voted. For each succeeding election up to 2012, this number fell, with 765,422 voting in that election, a clear fall off of some 100,000 voters, at a time when the number of registered voters had increased to over 1,300,000.

Voter turnout increased between 2007 and 2016 elections climbing back up to 872,514 by 2016. In 2020, due in part to COVID-19, that number fell dramatically to 715,000. Another reason for this, apart from the COVID-19 pandemic, was the fact that of the over 160,000 who did not turn up for that election, 150,000 of them were supporters of the PNP. By then the party was in a state of disarray, reeling from internal party struggles and duly lost that election 49-14.

Following a very intensive, extensive and consistent campaign from the local government election of February 2024, voters once again became engaged in the political process and the voter turn-out grew to 819,000 in the September 3 election.

The stark reality is that between 1980 and 2025, the actual numbers of persons turning out to vote has been less. Today, 45 years and some nine elections later, 40,000 fewer persons actually voted on September 3 than voted in 1980. This tells the real story of voter apathy, rather than the percentages that we are accustomed to reporting on turnout.

RUMOURS

Were these 819,000 persons however the real number that turned out to vote? The EOJ should be concerned about a number of rumours circulating such as negative impacts like voter suppression (preventing persons from and encouraging voters not to) cast their ballots, breakdown of voter verification equipment in some polling stations, inordinate delays in voting leading to persons going back home without doing so, difficulties experienced by elder folk and disabled persons and the number of persons who did not have proper identification, which further slowed the process. The 38.5 per cent reported voter turnout may very well not represent the true turnout, but rather those who were eventually able to cast their ballots.

The 819,000 that voted is a far cry from the anticipated number of close to 1,000,000 that indicated they would go out to vote.

It seems imperative that a detailed study be done of this high degree of abstention from voting to probe more deeply, causal factors as well as what could be done to cauterize this fall off in voter participation. Market Research Services Ltd. has already compiled, after years of examining this issue, some of the deep underlying constraints. We are about to tackle this vexed issue, through more survey work, in the interest of seeking to help preserve our democratic system and democracy.

Don Anderson is the executive chairman of Market Research Services Limited. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com