Orville Taylor | Time didn’t come; but surveys didn’t lie

For the orange flavoured tribe, it was a déjà vu of sorts. Leading up to 90 metres, victory was snatched on the line, by a mischievously tempting horseracing margin.

The incumbent Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), won a historic third consecutive term.

Our RJRGLEANER Don Anderson polls leading up the election, showed a statistical dead heat, with a margin of error of four per cent. With a total of 403,502 being cast for the JLP, and 393,191 for the People’s National Party (PNP), the numbers were just outside range. Mark you, in this column, I did warn that it was too close to stick one’s neck out, and ultimately, it was about who gets the voters out on election day.

Low voter turnouts typically favour the government. For the opposition, mobilising voters on election day has two important components. First, there is the logistics of moving people from their places of abode. This is actually the easier part, because as long as people want to vote they will make themselves available. True, there are factors such as weather, meals being provided and the availability of ground transport and runners to retrieve the electors, which, if not properly managed, ultimately will lead to voters simply staying home.

Contenders have two major tasks, especially where there is a high degree of voter apathy or indecision.

The more daunting but yet more fundamental task, is to actually energise the non-base, reluctant, prospective voters. In doing so, one has to clearly distinguish between the black dog and the monkey. This has been the mountain which Mark Golding and the PNP had to climb

One can draw analogies from intimate relations. Imagine a woman disgruntled with her spouse, who has mistreated her, taking her for granted and she has some evidence that he might have a hidden outside child. Moreover, he has some money, which he cannot explain how he got it. However, she has suspicions.

Still, her new suitor is from the same community as her ex, and indeed, she remembers why she left him. Somehow, the resemblance to him is too uncanny and she asks herself, “Why should I go back there, even though he might be different?” She has trepidation. Her current is a ‘known ‘evil’.’

Electorate unimpressed

Jamaicans typically vote for party leaders.

Golding had a simple mission; to show the electorate who he is and give them a good reason as to why the voters should vote for him. After all, JLP faithful had already decided about its leader Andrew Holness, but 60 per cent of the electorate were unimpressed, and that included some who would prefer to not vote than to vote green. Thus, to continue to advise these people as to why the disaffected should not vote for Holness was pretty much a redundancy, because that die had already been cast.

Using a cricket analogy, the PNP dropped at least two balls. And held the wrong bat with its fists. In September last year, whether by design or misadventure, Vybz Kartel found himself on stage at its conference. It might have been great excitement for some party elements. However, let us be factual! Although not expressed, a significant percentage of PNP faithful were displeased. Be that as it may, at the end of that historic conference what made the news was all about Kartel and his hero Isat Buchanan. A year later, hardly anyone can say what the kernel of Golding’s message was. Trust me, more than 50 years later, I can recall what Michael Manley said at each podium, what P.J. Patterson said at his inaugural address and even what Portia Simpson Miller said. Thus, that impressive lead which Golding had coming into the homestretch dissipated as he faced a headwind.

Reality check

Unlike his mentor Edward Seaga, Holness flipped the three-peat script to the ‘W’ column. But here is a reality check, only 40 per cent of registered voters turned out. This is even lower than the 42 per cent who voted in the COVID-19 afflicted 2020 election.

The PNP’s advisors seem to have had the same plan from last election, which focused on Holness’ unexplained mansion. There is an old adage about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. Someone distributed drinks spiked with feline urine.

Surveys, done using the sociological method are generally accurate. Sometimes, because the findings are inconvenient, they are irrationally dismissed. Anderson was right. But they did not listen; the JLP did. Anderson revealed that only 14 per cent of Jamaicans thought that corruption was our greatest problem. Therefore, focusing on an issue, which is of minor importance, was simply a losing strategy.

In any event, no one, except me perhaps, paid proper attention to the corruption perception index (CPI). Indeed, under the JLP, the number has been a steady 44.

The problem with the inordinate flogging of the corruption horse is not only that it was not a critical election issue, but the CPI figure was actually worse under the previous PNP administration. Yes, if one wants to accept that the CPI is accurate, it says, importantly, that Jamaicans believe that the Holness administration was less corrupt than its predecessor.

But remember, in this column, I have said ad nauseam, that the CPI does not measure corruption itself. Rather, the belief. I am done here! Finally, the PNP, having waited until the 11th hour to let the public know who ‘Markie G’ is, left too much to imagination and speculation.

And for good measure, Dionne Jackson Miller makes sense, regarding no voting rights for the diaspora. Inasmuch as it pleases ‘foreigners’, someone should have whispered in his ear, “Hey they are not on the current voters’ list.”

Orville Taylor is senior lecturer at Department of Sociology at The University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com