Elizabeth Morgan | COP30 and G20 outcomes – Disappointing

ON MONDAY morning with the announcement of the death of one of Jamaica’s most outstanding reggae music pioneers, Jimmy Cliff, the temptation was to focus on his career, his achievements, including his many international hit songs, and his starring role in Jamaica’s film classic, The Harder They Come, with its amazing soundtrack. This would be relevant as trade in services, cultural and entertainment services.

However, Jimmy Cliff, as a man who was very much tuned in to world affairs, would understand that the focus should be on recent developments in the UN Climate Change (COP30) Conference in Belém, Brazil, November 6-21 and the G20 Summit in South Africa, November 22-23. The G20 is a grouping of the world’s largest economies and includes the European Union and the African Union. It represents 85 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product and two-thirds of its population.

Both COP30 and the G20 had at least one thing in common, which was the absence of the USA’s high-level federal delegation. As known, the USA is withdrawing from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Climate Accord, considering climate science a hoax, and US President Donald Trump refused to attend the G20 South Africa Summit claiming that there was discrimination against white Afrikaner South Africans. This latter claim has been widely discredited.

COP30

The outcomes of COP 30 highlighted include:

Fossil fuels – It was pointed out in this column on November 12 (Climate Change (COP30) and CARICOM) that fossil fuels (oil, coal, and gas) could be a stumbling block in Belém. They were. The fossil fuel producing countries, such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, China, and other Arab countries, resisted attempts to have COP30 agree on a roadmap for phasing out the use of these fuels, as agreed at COP28 in Dubai in 2023. They felt that a specific roadmap for transitioning would be detrimental to their economies. They want to act at their own pace to deal with climate change – clearly not seen as a crisis. The compromise was to leave out any reference to a fossil fuels phase-out roadmap. So, the end to the fossil fuels era is not in sight.

The outcome document, known as the Mutirão text, calls for launching a Global Implementation Accelerator, a cooperative and voluntary initiative to drive progress on climate change mitigation across sectors and report back at COP31 in Türkiye. Brazil will undertake a personal infinitive on fossil fuels phase out.

Although countries are indicating that they want the freedom to deal with climate change on their own terms, 70 countries have yet to submit their Nationally Determined Contributions, their national climate action plan, showing how they intend to reduce carbon emissions and address climate change mitigation.

The tough negotiations over this matter led to the conference being extended by one day to Saturday, November 22.

Deforestation – Limiting deforestation is also important in climate change mitigation. However, not as much as expected was achieved, but a fund, the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, was established.

Climate finance – Again, achievements were below expectations. They mobilised funding of $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for climate action for developing countries; proposed doubling adaptation finance by 2025 and tripling it by 2035. Regarding the loss and damage fund, this was further operationalised with replenishment cycles confirmed.

Climate disinformation – They committed to promote information integrity and counter false narratives.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS), including CARICOM countries, have voiced their disappointment with the outcome of COP30.

Climate scientists have warned that serious action to reduce carbon emissions needs to be taken by the latest 2045 to avoid a catastrophe for the planet.

G20 SUMMIT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Jamaica’s Prime Minister, Andrew Holness, also as chair of CARICOM, was invited to the G20 meeting and attended. He joined other developing countries in raising their concerns about climate change, especially in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa, and other issues.

With the absence of the USA, the other members of the G20 were able to adopt a declaration. The G20 South Africa Leaders Declaration addresses a range of issues including Strengthening Disaster Resilience Response, recognising that “increasing large-scale disasters disproportionately affect people in vulnerable situations in ways that exacerbate poverty and inequality, especially for low-income groups”. They also recognised the need to increase investment in renewable energy. One wonders how the decisions taken at this G20 South Africa Summit will be implemented.

Recall that a number of those blocking a phase-out plan for fossil fuels at COP30 are members of the G20.

In addition, the USA takes over the G20 presidency in 2026. The handover from South Africa to the USA was quite low key. The next G20 Summit is scheduled to be held in Miami, Florida, in December 2026 at the Trump National Doral Resort and Spa. It already seems that some members of the G20 might find that they are not invited to this meeting and quite likely the Trump administration might not implement the South Africa declaration. This is where we are in international relations today and as was the title of this column last week. We are living in very troubled times, and we have not mentioned here the increase in defence spending and security concerns, the economic issues, and the further challenges to multilateralism.

Elizabeth Morgan is a specialist in international trade policy and international politics. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com