If Jamaica strikes oil

Jamaica cannot afford to drift through this moment with polite language, soft thinking, or the usual habit of celebrating possibility before securing substance.

There is a serious conversation now taking shape around offshore oil exploration in Jamaican waters, particularly in the Walton-Morant licence area south of the island. United Oil & Gas has been advancing seabed surveys and piston coring work, with the company describing the programme as a critical step in testing whether commercially meaningful hydrocarbons may be present.

The licence was extended to January 2028, and recent offshore survey work has already moved the discussion beyond idle speculation and into a more consequential national space.

That matters.

It matters because Jamaica is not discussing oil from a position of comfort. We are discussing it at a time when the country is feeling pressure from every direction – economic pressure, infrastructure pressure, social pressure, and climate pressure. This is not theory anymore. Over the past two years Jamaica has been hit by two major weather events, and Hurricane Melissa alone caused damage and losses estimated by the Government at $1.952 trillion, while the Planning Institute of Jamaica said the October to December 2025 quarter saw an estimated 7.5 per cent economic decline, largely influenced by the hurricane’s effects.

So let us be clear: climate change is no longer something Jamaica observes from the outside like a headline from another country. It is something we are living through, budgeting through, rebuilding through, and increasingly planning our future around.

Roads, housing, schools, utilities, agriculture, insurance, and real estate are all now part of the same national adjustment. Jamaica has officially entered a reconstruction phase after Melissa, with Government pointing to long-term investments in housing, schools, and public infrastructure built to climate-resilient standards.

That is precisely why this oil conversation must be approached with seriousness.

Not excitement alone. Seriousness.

Because if Jamaica does strike oil – and that remains an if, not a guarantee – then this cannot become one more national moment where ordinary Jamaicans hear grand speeches, wave flags for a week, and then spend the next 20 years watching outside interests walk away with the best of the benefit.

United Oil & Gas and other coverage of the prospect have pointed to frontier upside and even comparisons with transformative offshore discoveries elsewhere, but no commercial oil or gas has yet been discovered in Jamaica, and the present work is still about reducing uncertainty before any drilling decision.

That distinction matters, too.

Jamaica must not behave like a country so hungry for opportunity that it forgets to negotiate like a country with dignity.

As Dean Jones, founder of Jamaica Homes, puts it: “A resource is only a blessing when the people can feel it in their daily lives. If Jamaica ever strikes oil, the victory cannot stay on paper or in press releases.”

That should be the test.

Not whether international investors get excited. Not whether headlines start comparing Jamaica to Guyana. Not whether speculative talk drives chatter in boardrooms and on social media. The real test is whether the people of Jamaica benefit in a way that is broad, visible, and lasting.

Because the average Jamaican is not asking for miracles. The average Jamaican is asking for fairness.

FAIR EXCHANGE

Fairness means that if the island’s natural resources are developed, the returns should help to strengthen the country itself. They should help to fund resilience. They should support stronger housing, better roads, improved drainage, more reliable infrastructure, more serious disaster preparedness, and a development model that does not leave communities looking at wealth pass them by like a tinted SUV on the highway.

And, yes, that last point matters.

There is already a quiet frustration in this country around major deals and major projects. Jamaicans have long memories. People know that not every agreement made in the name of development has translated into comfort for the man on the street, the woman in the district, the small business owner, the returning resident, or the young family trying to build. Sometimes a project can be hailed as progress while ordinary people still end up paying dearly just to use what was supposedly built in the national interest. That is why this moment must be handled differently.

If oil is found, Jamaica must not sign away its future in exchange for applause today.

As Dean Jones says: “Jamaica must never confuse investment with surrender. The right deal brings in expertise and capital, but it must leave power, value, and dignity in Jamaican hands.”

That is the hard truth.

Oil exploration is expensive. Complex. Risky. No serious person should pretend otherwise. Even now, the company has said it is seeking partners and that tens of millions of US dollars would be needed for an exploration well, which is why this process naturally attracts larger outside players with deeper pockets and technical capacity.

But because Jamaica may need partners does not mean Jamaica should think like a beggar.

Partnership is one thing. Weak bargaining is another.

A STRONG FRAMEWORK

If we reach the point where commercially viable oil is on the table, the country will need more than celebration. It will need a framework. A serious one. Jamaica will need strong royalty terms, clear revenue structures, environmental protections, transparency on contracts, public scrutiny, and a clear national strategy for how oil income would be used. Not wasted. Not scattered. Not hidden behind jargon. Used.

Used to help Jamaica build back stronger and smarter.

That includes real estate.

From a property and development perspective, an oil discovery could be transformative. Not because oil magically solves everything, but because it could shift how the country thinks about land use, infrastructure, industrial development, ports, logistics, housing demand, and investment corridors.

If managed wisely, it could help unlock capital for better planned communities, stronger building systems, and more resilient development standards at a time when Jamaica has no choice but to take climate adaptation seriously.

And that is where the two stories – climate change and oil – collide in a way that is uncomfortable but real.

Jamaica is facing the consequences of a warming world. Yet one possible source of future economic strength may come from fossil fuel extraction. That contradiction should not be ignored. But neither should it be handled with shallow moral theatre. Poor and vulnerable countries are too often told to be responsible in ways that richer countries never were. Jamaica should not be reckless, but neither should it be naive.

If oil is there, and if it can be developed lawfully, responsibly, and in a way that truly benefits the country, then Jamaica has every right to pursue what serves its national interest.

The critical question is not whether development is pure.

The critical question is whether it is just.

Will the people benefit?

Will the environment be protected?

Will the contracts be fair?

Will the money be invested in national strengthening, especially at a time when climate shocks are no longer occasional disruptions but part of the development equation itself?

That is the standard.

As Dean Jones puts it: “This is not the hour for Jamaica to think small. If opportunity comes, we must meet it with courage, discipline, and a plan big enough to lift the whole country.”

Exactly so.

Because what Jamaica needs now is not another extractive story where value leaves and the burden stays behind. The country needs a strategic story. One where any future oil wealth helps reduce vulnerability rather than deepen inequality. One where the benefits are not concentrated at the top while the risks are spread across everyone else. One where this generation can say, with honesty, that when the chance came, Jamaica negotiated like a nation that had finally learned.

There is no guarantee yet that oil will flow.

That fact should keep everyone grounded.

But if the day comes when Jamaica does strike it, then the country must not fumble the moment through haste, opacity, or weak leadership. The people of Jamaica deserve more than symbolism. They deserve substance.

This is not just about black gold beneath the sea.

It is about whether Jamaica, in a harsher and more uncertain age, can finally turn possibility into public good.

That is the real prize.

And this time, the people must feel it.

- This article was first published by Jamaica Homes News at jamaica-homes.com. Email feedback to office@jamaica-homes.com and columns@gleanerjm.com