Gordon Robinson | Pick a winner wouldja please?

Despite recent verbosity from Constitutional Affairs Minister, another “General” Election is likely before July.

The last PM who delayed the call due to another “call” endured a catastrophic weather event and lost an election she might’ve won. Whether sooner or later, there’ll be NOTHING general about this election. Voters have ONE VOTE namely for a constituency representative. We can’t vote directly for PM, President or Senator. After we cast that restricted “vote” our Political Masters will impose everything else on us.

A PM has already been pre-selected by 3,000 partisan “Delegates”. As soon as a Party’s candidates win most seats its PM will dominate Jamaican Governance. First, PM selects 13 party faithful to serve as Senators in an “Upper” House allegedly supervising a “Lower” House’s legislative process. In reality, it’s a rubber stamp for the Lower House itself a rubber stamp for Government sitting in Parliament masquerading as MPs.

Where else in the world do “Upper House” members resign willingly to run for a seat in a “Lower House”? Sheesh!

Then PM selects a cabinet from MPs/Senators using unchecked prerogative. PM can increase cabinet members anytime by gerrymandering Ministries (e.g. separate Justice AND Legal/Constitutional Affairs Ministries) or oxymoronically naming a new “Minister without Portfolio”.

Holy Dictatorship Batman!

That’s the bad news. The worse news is PM’s choice of Ministers to manage Government is limited to about 50 options from a population of three million guaranteeing negligence, incompetence or scandal.

Then every Government Agency’s Chairman and board member is nominated by PM’s hand-picked Ministers then confirmed in secret by cabinet subject to PM’s veto. Party activists are engaged as “consultants/advisors” and paid handsomely using taxpayers’ money.

THIS is Governance Jamaica Style! We’re bamboozled into casting a non-vote then whoever “wins” controls public revenues and distributes scarce benefits and spoils to Party faithful while we suck salt through wooden spoons.

In 2002 a court forced World Wrestling Federation (WWF) to abandon that pretend name and admit to being World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE). Jamaica’s similarly absurd General Election should be recognized as General Entertainment (GE). Maybe predicting a “winner” can be as amusing as forecasting a WWE wrestling match outcome.

I know you’ve waded through reams of column inches proffering Boynesian “on-the-one-hand-on-the-other-hand” analysis. You know Ye Olde Tout won’t dish out any of that pusillanimous punditry. I’ll pick my idea of a winner. Everybody knows my favourite girlfriend’s first name is Winsome. Her last name? Why, Losesome of course. But I don’t hesitate to ask for her company.

Since it matters not who wins, why so reticent about opining? As Alfred E Neuman would say “What, me worry?”

Prognosticators should understand every Jamaican GE is made more shambolic by too many garrison constituencies where the word “election” is as appropriate as Redd Foxx performing at a Church Social. Outside garrisons, enforced irrational voting patterns further skew results. Voters, denied true Democracy, convert Jamaica into a single constituency marking “X” beside a symbol clueless as to for who they’re voting.

This makes it easy for Pollsters to claim they “got it right!” Jamaican Pollsters keep polling popular vote despite it being a constituency by constituency election. Jamaica’s flawed electoral system assists their sleight of hand.

It wasn’t always so. In the beginning voters paid attention to candidates. So, in 1949, PNP polled 203,048 votes; JLP 199,538. But JLP “won” the election 17-13-2 (independents). So, Jamaican elections aren’t designed to necessarily produce Governments in accordance with the will of the people. And there’s nothing we can do about it under this “Westmonster” System. Whether you vote for candidate or Party, every wey yu tu’n, macca jook yu!

So Polls, Schmolls! Elections are won on Election Day by whichever Party best assists supporters to vote for it.

Issues driving uncommitted voters (in Jamaica, one of Cordelia Cupp’s rare birds) won’t include corruption. We aren’t stupid. We KNOW the system invites corruption whoever wins. What we want is economic management; bread on table; money in pocket; health and safety.

Jamaican voters get tired of the same political hacks always foraging in the public trough. We vote them out. We don’t vote anybody in. So, except from 1992-2006, Governments were consistently voted out after two terms. Since 2006 more impatient voters have voted one-term governments out. 2020 GE was an aberration as COVID and Rise United’s divisive tactics granted JLP a Stay of Execution. But, this time, JLP is very much up against it.

During 1992-2006, I maintain PNP’s most effective political weapon was Edward Seaga whose ethnicity, race and origin of birth were viciously and unfairly manipulated by PNP activists. That sickening strategy resonated with voters who voted Seaga “out” (although he wasn’t “in”) not PNP in.

This is where I should be re-telling the story of two skunks named “In” and “Out” but sadly, I’m “out” of space. One of these fine Tuesdays…..

Today tables are turned. PNP is led by a man of British heritage who remained a British Citizen until reluctantly renouncing it recently after unrelenting public pressure. JLP attack dogs are already pursuing that spiteful double standard by repeatedly assaulting his “Jamaicanness” and Jamaican loyalty with crass, jingoistic, racist rhetoric. We’ll see whether Jamaica’s political history repeats itself.

How do I see the GE result? In horseracing terms, PNP, hurriedly ridden, poached an early lead but is treading water up the homestretch while JLP stays on determinedly closing the gap with every stride. With 49 MPs, JLP’s cushion permits targeting specific constituencies. PNP is likely to reclaim Westmoreland (three constituencies). In St. James, you can stick a fork in Homer Davis and Marlene Malahoo-Forte. They’re done.

Vazland remains impregnable but, in KSA, both Capulets (St. Andrew West and East-Rural) are vulnerable. East-Rural is under particular pressure as my moles tell me the incumbent isn’t popular. In Local Government Elections (LGE) JLP won 3 of 5 Divisions but lost the popular vote 6,241-6,680.

West-Rural is a toss-up. JLP moles tell me Stony Hill is uneasy. JLP needs Lawrence Tavern and Stony Hill to come home “bigly”. There’s still some padding from LGE’s 54 per cent vote but Red Hills is set to be a huge PNP win.

Fayval Williams is also likely to struggle. St Andrew Eastern is nobody’s “safe” seat despite Fayval’s easy 2020 win. The likely saving grace for Fayval and West-Rural’s Capulet is PNP’s clumsy selection of candidates with weak electoral past performances.

A rejuvenated PNP should flip Central Kingston but I expect Fayval and Juliet Cuthbert-Flynn to hold on. This is good news for JLP as West-Rural almost always goes to the winning side.

So JLP seat count is already down to 42. I also expect at least one St. Ann (probably North-Western) and one St. Mary (South-Eastern) seat to be flipped bringing JLP’s to 40. Peter Bunting should make it 39 in Manchester South; while Rhoda, an excellent MP, looks set to lose in Manchester Central as she seems on her own against the full might of PNP machinery. Robert Morgan has lost his grip on Clarendon North-Central while Big Rob’s surprise 2020 win should be reversed in St. Catherine where Terrelonge, without new Parish protection, is also in trouble against Raymond Pryce.

35!

Michelle Charles is very shaky in St Thomas East.

34!

PNP swept Hanover’s local government elections especially in Hanover West where I confidently expect Dave Brown to be defeated

33!

Some JLP stalwarts are shaky. There could be a huge upset in St. Andrew North-Eastern if only PNP can unite behind an excellent candidate (Stacey Knight). Despite Karl Samuda’s “Is-I-going-up-or-is-I-coming-down” confusion while paused on St. Andrew North-Central’s electoral stairway, I expect Samuda’s political magic to carry the constituency.

Even giving PNP one of those JLP fingernails are still hanging on.

32-31!

So, all eyes should be on St Elizabeth South-East (Franklin Witter vs Norman Scott) and South-West (Floyd Green vs Miranda Wellington). JLP needs a one-all draw to win. PNP needs both seats.

St Elizabeth South-Western is the quintessential Bell Weather. Wellington, born in the constituency; a teacher there for 15+ years, is an excellent choice. Former students are now voters. Still, it takes cash to care so I’m expecting Floyd to leverage his Agriculture Ministry’s “achievements”; bring home the Bell Weather; and confirm JLP’s, at worst, 32-31win (33-30 if Portmore is a Parish; 34-29 if Chuck/Samuda’s successor both win).

Panderson and Blue Dolt should assist analysts by conducting constituency by constituency polling for this constituency by constituency election. And pick a winner wouldja please? Stop using plus or minus dodgery as a crutch. Media, for pity’s sake, pre-arrange with EOJ so you know which boxes are counted. Research political demographics; analyse likely outcomes; instead of insipidly repeating “depends where the boxes are coming from”.

Peace and Love.

Gordon Robinson is an attorney at law. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com