Mark Wignall | Two polls and an unpleasant embrace

Unlike major concerns such as a cavalcade of US politicians constantly lying to the people, here in Jamaica we have learned to live with little white lies and Jamaican politicians stretching the truth of those on the hustings for the Opposition.

The RJRGLEANER /Don Anderson and Nationwide Blue dot polls appeared at the same time. This creates a headache for those in the business of reading poll numbers and translating those numbers into voter behaviour. Two polls mean that pundits will be forced to draw on experience instead of guessing on better polling.

It is normal that during political campaigns the people, when polled, have, historically, cited unemployment, idleness of youth, crime. Other items have come up such as poor roads and stealing of farm produce.

It was mentioned in the media recently that unemployment and crime do not feature in present polls. This is something to seriously consider as success stories among our political parties especially during the time of entanglement by the IMF by both political administrations.

The polls have not in any way shown that young people 19-35 are rushing off to support either the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) or the People’s National Party (PNP). The other thing is that if it can be shown that people’s lives (voters) have tangibly got better since 2020, that would definitely be a plus for Holness and the JLP, especially among those in the rural and economically depressed communities.

PREFER TO EXHALE

Ten years ago. many people who were in the mood to vote would prefer to exhale in cuss words before the actual vote. Now, hardly anyone jumps at the mention of voting. Neither of the two polls has shown that the PNP’s Mark Golding has been significantly ahead for, say, eight or ten months. I say that because such a poll position would immediately attract the attention of the leadership of both parties.

Remember now, as I have said, the PM has faced his problems. We will see if they stick to him like glue or they assist him in making an easier reach of his objective.

It makes little sense that JLP supporters pretend that Prime Minister Holness would not be concerned should Mark Golding rise to the top like cream. Certainly, the PM must, at some stage, start to believe that he has a big jump start on Markie G.

This is the big question that the president of the PNP must answer. Golding’s profession, that of am investment banker-lawyer is driven by capitalism, yet the core belief driving the PNP since its founding is socialism. Mr Golding and the other very wealthy capitalists attached to the PNP have always skipped trying to navigate the answer. It seems to me that while the PNP is scared to set out a fairly rational explanation, the JLP cannot find any roach in this most convenient fowl feeding.

This can be a propitious moment for the JLP. It could be even more so for Golding and his team if both political parties can be comfortable with this. Voting for the JLP is the right thing. We know about infrastructural development, education, national security, fighting crime, health. If Markie G. can state the same thing and they can both be comfortable with it, then use that in your campaign as you reach out to voters. I suppose many would be the doubters.

SEPTEMBER SONG

I suspect that Andrew Holness will be calling the election for a date in September. Do I have any specific reason? No. But Mr Holness is a politician, and often, politicians, be they highly educated or not, will want to just throw the coat on the hook without aiming.

Indications are that this hurricane season will be a terrible one. Sometimes on the downside of September something can be slipped in. Like an election. And how should the opposition PNP read it?

Is there anything in both polls that stands out more than anything else and is telling the PNP that its time is now?

Is there a message grabbing at the coattails of the PNP and telling it that its time is now. Frankly, were I the PNP, I would be quite comfortable working my a** off and planning for August and September. The thing is, can the JLP secure itself 10 per cent of the 2020 youth cohort (five years on) and attach them to its hope for 2025 and shaft the PNP?

The saying that the PNP is good at politicking while the JLP is good at management is still alive. The problem is, which is the message that will best appeal to those below thirty? It is often thought that In terms of the older voter all the PNP and the JLP have to do up until election day is hang out their signs, make a lot of noise and those 55 and over will be drawn to the colours like moths to flame.

Mark Wignall is a political and public affairs analyst. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and mawigsr@gmail.com.