Fabio Barbosa dos Santos and Doreen Gordon | Brazil’s elections: What is at stake for the Caribbean and beyond

A significant electoral race is taking place in Brazil between Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the right-wing populist Jair Bolsonaro (currently under house arrest for his role in a 2022 coup attempt), and Lula da Silva, longtime leader of the Workers Party.

The election is consequential for the Caribbean and beyond because Brazil is the largest Latin American country with significant political, economic, and cultural influence. Furthermore, Brazil, under Lula, has played a key role in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), anchoring South-to-South cooperation, climate advocacy for Small Island Developing States, and regional integration. However, the outcome of the Brazilian elections today (October 25) can potentially trigger major changes in policy and international relations in the region.

In the first round of elections on October 4, Bolsonaro led by less than 2 percentage points, 47 to 45. As the two presidential candidates head to a second round of elections on Sunday, Bolsonaro appears to have a slight advantage. The Brazilian election turns on key questions about democracy and sovereignty, with pressure from the United States for change.

Hotly debated issues include public spending on social services, environmental degradation, corruption, human rights, tariffs, and international trade, the cost of living, and crime and violence. Some Indigenous people fear that the election of Bolsonaro’s son could fuel the return of illegal mining and health crises in their communities. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro has attempted to appeal to new voters, making women’s safety a pillar of his 2026 presidential campaign.

CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION

What is at stake is not just a matter of a contest between the left and the right. Lula will not solve Brazil’s problems, but he would seek to contain them. On the other hand, Bolsonaro embodies the most violent tendencies of Brazilian capitalism. If this is given expression, it can have disastrous consequences for Brazil’s social fabric.

Bolsonaro is supported by those who profit from environmental destruction such as agribusiness and the mining industry. This is his political platform, which bears a marked resemblance to the trajectory of militarisation in El Salvador, combined with the anarcho-capitalism of Argentina, wrapped up in conservative evangelical rhetoric.

ARMED POWER REGIME

There is one important difference between the Bolsonaro dynasty and other radical right-wing movements: it is an armed power regime. Bolsonaro is likely to promote the militarisation of life and use it as a means of social control. Indeed, many Brazilians feel that Lula is the last thread tying them to the rule of law.

Brazilian politics is clearly deeply polarised. Bolsonaro’s supporters often express perspectives that are prejudiced, sexist, and authoritarian. Further, Bolsonaro’s supporters believe that a police state will better defend their interests than targeted social policies. Each side perceives itself as the saviour of the country, with the other side being perceived as delusional.

COULD LULA DA SILVA STILL WIN?

It will be difficult at this stage for Lula to broaden his support base because the candidates who did not make it to the second round accounted for 7 per cent of the vote, and those with the most votes have declared their support for Bolsonaro. However, this support is not decisive, and those votes may be divided. Lula needs to mobilise the 21 per cent of voters who did not vote as well as the 5 per cent of invalid and blank votes. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro is acting as though he is already elected, announcing that he will amend the Constitution and extend his term of office from four to six years. What he hadn’t reckoned with was the reaction on the streets.

Within a few days, university students mobilised across the country. A week after the first round, São Paulo’s main thoroughfare was taken over by an unprecedented crowd, all dressed in red. This scenario repeated itself in other cities, especially in the northeast where Lula has long been popular.

Not to be outdone, Bolsonaro supporters flooded São Paulo’s streets on October 18. At this rally, a giant inflatable missile caught everyone’s eye, bearing a message in English addressed to the US President: “Trump nuke Brazil”. It is clear that the Bolsonaro camp will not accept the result if it loses and that it will be counting on Trump to overturn it. On that very same day, however, artists such as Chico Buarque and Caetano Veloso led a large demonstration in Rio de Janeiro. On the streets, the Lula camp has had the upper hand.

The main strength of the Bolsonaro camp has always been in social media. To counter this, a vast digital support network, dubbed the ‘Lula Army’, was organised, growing to over 7.4 million participants. Despite interventions by Meta, Lula’s online performance has improved significantly. Polls are showing that the gap between the candidates has narrowed. It will be a neck-and-neck race to the end.

WHY IS BOLSONARISM STRONG IN BRAZIL?

After four decades, some Brazilians feel that democracy has delivered very little for them, underscoring that social rights have not become a reality, while precariousness and insecurity have increased. Disillusioned with the promise of change, many prefer to hold on to what they have. Blending evangelical beliefs with militarism, Bolsonarism is a conservative ideology, yet it presents itself as a utopia, albeit an apocalyptic one.

The radical right draws lines between who deserves to be a Brazilian citizen and who does not. Behind the Bolsonarist apocalypse lies the utopia of a Christian nation. This has a powerful appeal in a highly religious country.

Bolsonarism derives its momentum from the competitive dynamics of neoliberalism, creating a self-destructive social dynamic that pits people against one another. This situation breeds fear, hatred, and indifference on a massive scale. The tragedy is that this radical right operates like an autoimmune disease in power because its policies exacerbate the very social insecurity for which they present themselves as a remedy. Brazil could join 12 other Latin American countries with right-wing or conservative governments. However, Lula just might pull off a different result.

Professor Fabio Luis Barbosa dos Santos, Federal University of São Paulo, and Dr Doreen Gordon, Institute for Gender and Development Studies, University of the West Indies, Regional Headquarters.