Is Cuba destined for change?

THE EDITOR, Madam:

Cuba is facing a deepening economic crisis—the worst in decades. Tourism, once a key economic driver, has nearly collapsed, with visitors almost disappearing this year. The country continues to struggle with ageing infrastructure, US sanctions, bureaucratic inefficiencies, shortages, and chronic power outages.

Although modest reforms allow small, home-based private businesses, nearly 90 per cent of the population of 11 million lives in extreme poverty, with severe shortages of food, medicine, fuel, and basic supplies. Despite friendly relations with Jamaica and other regional neighbours, sanctions restrict much-needed aid. At a recent CARICOM meeting, Trinidad and Tobago’s prime minister criticised the Cuban system, noting that democratically elected governments in the region would not wish to replicate its model.

Cuba’s economic challenges are compounded by heavy debt, high public sector spending, a large trade deficit, and the absence of a dynamic private sector. The state, through its military apparatus, controls much of the economy, including hotels, banking, construction, transportation, and retail. Foreign hotel operators typically hold minority stakes, with most profits retained locally, and many have begun to withdraw amid the crisis.

Since restrictions were eased in 2008, Cubans have become more globally aware, increasingly voicing frustrations, especially online.

Despite its difficulties, Cuba has strong potential in tourism, trade, agriculture, and sports. As the largest Caribbean island, it could rival regional leaders in visitor arrivals if conditions improve. Greater tourism could also benefit the wider Caribbean.

However, any meaningful progress depends on political change. With worsening living conditions and growing public discontent, the question remains: how long can Cubans endure such hardship? Change now appears increasingly inevitable.

P. CHIN